Recent evidence on the relationship between money growth and budget deficits

This paper examines the recent evidence on the extent to which the Federal Reserve accommodates Treasury financing activities by effectively monetizing newly issued debt. Various lag and lead formulations are used to determine the timing of FED actions. Results suggest that validation has been significant over the 1960–1980 period, and that, especially in recent periods, the FOMC has responded to capital market pressure which appears in advance of impending debt issues. Finally, we find in the limited number of observations available since October 1979 that there has been no substantive “break” in this accommodative policy despite the Fed's alleged emphasis on monetary aggregates.     

Discoveries, innovations, and business cycles

There is considerable evidence that the density of basic innovations is peaked at definite periods with intervals of about 40–60 years. This has been used as support for the behavior of economic cycles as postulated by Kontradieff and amplified by Schumpeter. Recently some economists have used this model to forecast economic recovery in the middle or late 1980s.This paper points out that the shape of the clusters of innovation or inventions are different and sharper than those of economic depression or economic recovery. The transfer of knowledge from basic inventions to industrial innovations shortens as one moves from the 18th to the 20th century, and some probable explanations for this are offered. The importance of discoveries and limited discoveries to the process of invention and innovation is discussed. Also shown is that discoveries reveal cluster phenomena which are functionally related to the clusters of invention and innovation.     

Time variation in the correlation structure of exchange rates: high‐frequency analyses

The correlation structure of asset returns is a crucial parameter in risk management as well as in theoretical finance. In practice, however, the true correlation structure between the returns of assets can easily become obscured by time variation in the observed correlation structure and in the liquidity of the assets. We employed a time‐stamped high‐frequency data set of exchange rates, namely, the US$–deutsche mark and the US$–yen exchange rates, to calibrate the observed time variation in the correlation structure between their returns. We also documented time variation in the liquidity structure of these rates. We then attempted to link the observed correlations with the liquidity via an application of an illiquid trading model first developed by Scholes and Williams (1976). We show that the observed correlation structure is strongly biased by the liquidity and that it is possible to effect at least a partial rectification of the otherwise downward‐biased observed correlation. The rectified sample correlation is, therefore, more appropriate for input into models used for forecasting, option pricing, and other risk management applications. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:127–144, 2001     

Managerial risk-taking behavior and equity-based compensation

Equity-based compensation affects managers’ risk-taking behavior, which in turn has an impact on shareholder wealth. In response to an exogenous increase in takeover protection in Delaware during the mid-1990s, managers lower firm risk by 6%. This risk reduction is concentrated among firms with low managerial equity-based incentives, in particular firms with low chief executive officer portfolio sensitivity to stock return volatility. Furthermore, the risk reduction is value-destroying. Finally, firms respond to the increased protection accorded by the regime shift by providing managers with greater incentives for risk-taking.     

ESTIMATING TEMPTATION AND COMMITMENT OVER THE LIFE CYCLE

This article estimates the importance of temptation for consumption smoothing and asset accumulation in a life‐cycle model. We use two complementary estimation strategies: first, we estimate the model‐implied Euler equation; second, we match liquid and illiquid wealth accumulation using the method of simulated moments. In both cases, we find that the utility cost of temptation is one‐quarter of the utility benefit of consumption. Further, temptation is crucial for correctly estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS): EIS estimates are biased downward when ignoring temptation. Finally, the model only matches the share of illiquid wealth if temptation is in the preference specification.     

Blockchain as the Database Engine in the Accounting System

This paper examines the prediction that blockchain technology will transform accounting and the profession because transactions recorded on a blockchain can be aggregated into financial statements and confirmed as true and accurate. We argue that blockchain technology affects the database engine of the accounting information system (AIS) through digitisation of the current paper‐based validation process. In a blockchain‐based AIS, accountants will no longer be the central authority but will remain the preparer of financial reports required by regulations; they will continue to influence policies such as the choice and accreditation of validators and serve as validators of last resort. Audit evidence still needs to be gathered for rendering of an audit opinion in a blockchain‐based AIS. While digitisation of the validation process reduces the error rate and lowers the cost of vouching and tracing, and immutability of blockchain data reduces the incentive and opportunities for fraud, a blockchain‐based AIS alone does not guarantee that financial reports are true and fair. Lower error rates and reduced incentives for accounting fraud in a blockchain‐based AIS are expected to improve audit quality. This prediction will need to be empirically tested when blockchain‐based AIS become available. Using the three‐tier architecture of the AIS, this paper addresses the gap in the literature that misses how characteristics of blockchain technology can influence the implementation of a blockchain‐based AIS with related implications for the accounting profession.     

Disability Insurance: Theoretical Trade-Offs and Empirical Evidence*

Disability insurance provides protection against health shocks that limit the ability to work. In most countries, these programmes are large and growing, both in expenditure and in number of recipients. We discuss the traditional trade-off between insurance and incentives in providing this insurance, with a focus on the US and UK experiences. There is substantial evidence on the extent of the labour supply incentive costs of disability insurance, but there has been a lack of evidence on the insurance value until very recently. Further, evidence on errors in the disability insurance process suggests false rejections of genuine claimants is a substantial problem, and these are more serious than false acceptances of healthy applicants. We provide a life-cycle framework for understanding the trade-offs and to evaluate the welfare implications of policy reforms. We argue that reforms should be focused on reducing false rejections and supporting labour market attachment. The difficulty in considering reform is that the design of disability insurance has many aspects that interact and impact on outcomes.