The systems analysis of conflict

This article is the outcome of a continuing programme of research involving systems engineers and political scientists. The ultimate aim is to explore the relevance of some of the methodologies of systems engineering to problems in the social sciences, especially the dynamics of domestic and international conflict. An initial exercise in modelling domestic conflict in terms of state equations (system dynamics) is described, although the study reflects the authors' interest in several approaches by the broadly based survey of past work and proposed diversification of their research.     

Analyst Report Readability

Using an extensive database of 356,463 sell‐side equity analysts' reports from 2002 to 2009, this study is one of the first to analyze the readability of analysts' reports. We first examine the determinants of variations in analyst report readability. Using several proxies for ability, we show that reports are more readable when issued by analysts with higher ability. Second, we test the relation between analysts' report readability and stock trading volume reactions. We find that trading volume reactions increase with the readability of analysts' text, consistent with theoretical models that predict that more precise information (and hence more informative signals) results in investors' initiating trades. These results support the view that the readability of analysts' reports is important to analysts and capital market participants.     

Testing for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity in generalized linear models for panel data

Recent literature on panel data emphasizes the importance of accounting for time-varying unobservable individual effects, which may stem from either omitted individual characteristics or macro-level shocks that affect each individual unit differently. In this paper, we propose a simple specification test of the null hypothesis that the individual effects are time-invariant against the alternative that they are time-varying. Our test is an application of Hausman (1978) testing procedure and can be used for any generalized linear model for panel data that admits a sufficient statistic for the individual effect. This is a wide class of models which includes the Gaussian linear model and a variety of nonlinear models typically employed for discrete or categorical outcomes. The basic idea of the test is to compare two alternative estimators of the model parameters based on two different formulations of the conditional maximum likelihood method. Our approach does not require assumptions on the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity, nor it requires the latter to be independent of the regressors in the model. We investigate the finite sample properties of the test through a set of Monte Carlo experiments. Our results show that the test performs well, with small size distortions and good power properties. We use a health economics example based on data from the Health and Retirement Study to illustrate the proposed test.     

The Volatility of Foreign Portfolio Investment and the Access to Finance of Small Listed Firms

This paper examines the impact of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) volatility on the access to capital of small listed firms. The volatility of FPI is significantly associated with decreased access to finance for small listed firms only in years when nations are considered less “creditworthy.” Even in these times, however, the benefits of FPI are not completely depleted. These results underscore the significance of both a good financial system that minimizes capital flow volatility and national creditworthiness in inspiring confidence in foreign investors.     

Modeling Ethical Business Culture: Development of the Ethical Business Culture Survey and Its Use to Validate the CEBC Model of Ethical Business Culture

This article reports the results of research to develop a survey instrument and its use to validate an ethical business culture construct (CEBC Model). The reported three-stage quantitative study builds on our previous qualitative work, aimed at identifying dimensions of ethical business cultures. The research resulted in a parsimonious construct, covering five dimensions of ethical business cultures, and a ten-question instrument, measuring this construct. In this article, we report results of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and convergent construct validity testing, discuss the potential applications of the construct and instrument in assessment and development of ethical business cultures, and provide recommendations for industry practitioners and for further research.     

“You Can't Make a Good Wine without a Few Beers”: Gatekeepers and knowledge flow in industrial districts

Knowledge sharing sometimes plays a key role in the performance of clustered organizations, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), however, SMEs also face significant knowledge-related disadvantages due to their lack of absorptive capacity and functional expertise. This study investigates the influence of technical specialists on knowledge flow in a wine cluster in Australia. The main contribution of this paper is a finding that the technical specialist's gatekeeping role both links clustered SMEs to the global wine “systemworld” by transferring knowledge of technical developments and innovation, and simultaneously develops and refines regional winemaking styles by sharing locally specific, experientially derived knowledge. Technical specialists drew on bridging and bonding social capital to identify and retrieve specialist knowledge, and were capable of assimilating complex technical knowledge into the cluster. These findings are particularly significant because recipients were typically small and micro-firms, which are frequently located outside cluster knowledge-network.     

Relationship Lending and Credit Quality

We analyse whether relationship lending reduces borrowers’ probability of default and, if so, whether this beneficial effect also applies to borrowers who are more exposed to the economic downturn. By using unique, matched data of 43,000 firms and their lending institutions between 2008 and 2010, we document that the probability that a firm becomes distressed decreases if the creditor concentration is high and if the duration of bank-firm relationships is long. While these results appear to support the beneficial effect of relationship lending practices, we note that the organisational distance of banks also matters both as a determinant of loan distress and loan downgrading. The results are stronger for smaller firms.     

Lending technologies,lending specialization,and minority access to small-business loans

We investigate minority access to small-business loans using a probit model of loan application denial that recognizes two loan types (line-of-credit loans and non-line-of-credit loans) made by two lender types (commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions). We estimate our model on data from the 1998 Survey of Small Business Finances. We find evidence consistent with minority equal access to bank credit lines and nonbank non-line-of-credit loans in highly competitive loan markets; in less competitive markets we find evidence consistent with unequal access to these loans. We also find evidence consistent with unequal minority access to bank non-line-of-credit loans, regardless of loan market competitiveness. Our findings differ from previous research which treats small-business loans as a homogenous product and finds evidence consistent with unequal minority access to small-business loans generally. We argue that the existence of multiple small-business lending technologies and loan specialization by lenders account for our findings and demonstrate the need to treat small-business loans as a heterogeneous product when investigating equal access to small-business credit.