Optimal hedging of contingent exposure: the importance of a risk premium

The focus of this article is how a non‐zero risk premium affects an economic agent's optimal hedging decision when exposed to a nonmarketed event. The analysis is not confined to the optimal use of one particular hedging instrument, rather, the optimal payoff based on the agent's preferences is derived. We show, for various preferences, how the size of a risk premium affects the degree of nonlinearity in the optimal hedging instrument. This result is in contrast to known results for contingent exposure in the case of a zero risk premium. We demonstrate an inefficacy of the approach of confining the analysis to one particular hedging instrument in the case of standard exposure. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:823–841, 2000     

Exploring Relationships Between Recreation Specialization,Restorative Environments and Mountain Hikers’ Flow Experience

This study explored the relationships between the perception of restorative natural environments, specialization in mountain hiking and flow experience. On-site interviews were conducted at mountain huts in the Salzkammergut, Austria, in 2009. The analysis of 369 hikers suggests that a relationship exists among recreation specialization, the perception of restorative environments and flow. With increasing specialization, people are more likely to experience flow. The restorative quality dimensions of “being away,” “fascination” and “compatibility” with the mountainous landscape were positive predictors of flow experience.     

The trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy: A simulation model analysis of the Norwegian defense industry

The paper investigates the trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy. It presents an agent-based simulation model calibrated for the Norwegian defense industry that compares different policy scenarios and examines the effects of a pending EU market liberalization process. The paper points to two main results. (1) It finds that a pure scenario where national authorities focus on, and provide support exclusively for, either a) international competitiveness or b) national defense and security objectives, is more Pareto efficient than a corresponding mixed strategy where policy makers simultaneously pursue both international competitiveness and defense and security objectives. (2) Under the conditions of the new EU liberalization regime, it finds that a stronger and more visible trade-off will emerge between international competitiveness and national defense and security objectives. Policy makers will have to choose which to prioritize, and set a clear agenda focusing on one of the two objectives.     

Finanzielle Repression — ein Instrument zur Bewältigung der Krisenfolgen?

Financial repression committed by central banks has been put forward as a means to secretly reduce the real burden of high public debts. Financial repression has allegedly played an important role in the impressive reduction of the US debt ratio after World War II. A mix of conventional budget consolidation and rapid growth was the main driver in this relative debt reduction with a minor role for financial repression. But does financial repression really exist? The authors express different opinions on evidence for this concept. Those authors who find that there are indicators of financial repression fear redistributive tendencies between debtors and creditors and high opportunity costs in the form of savings and investment distortions. Therefore, financial repression is not a “cure” for the high public debts amassed in the euro area during the recent sovereign debt and banking crisis. Furthermore, the high sovereign debts in the euro area may threaten economic development and impose high costs on society. Therefore, reducing these debts is politically highly relevant, and fiscal policy should be characterised by a modest reduction in government spending and/or tax increases, combined with a policy promoting economic growth. Macroprudential regulations should supplement this financial policy.     

Natural Resources and Internal Conflict

We present a model of conflict in which each group decides to claim the country’s income and invest in arms or to accept a group neutral allocation of income and not invest in arms. Apart from the usual cooperative or conflictual societies, their strategic choice can result in hierarchically stratified societies in which one group is dominant. We show how the presence and exploitation of certain types of resources matters for the occurrence of conflict or social hierarchical stratification and for the possible effects of trust manipulation. In particular we find that, first, robust (encompassing point and lootable) resource rich economies tend to be conflictual, plantation economies hierarchically stratified and diversified economies cooperative. Second, foreign intervention, aimed at changing the balance of power in the case of conflict, is most effective in robust and diffuse resource rich economies. Third, trust manipulation (as a means to counter conflict) is most effective in subsistence and diffuse resource rich economies. Throughout the article, we cite ample case study and econometric evidence to support our model.     

Suspending Group Debate and Developing Concepts

The ability of new product development (NPD) teams to generate ideas and develop high‐quality concepts for new products is a crucial determinant of NPD success. Although prior research in this area has developed various interventions to enhance the ability of teams to generate ideas, such interventions have limited impact on innovation management theory and practice. Partly, this is because of practical reasons: The interventions are often costly and impractical. However, there are also more fundamental, theoretical issues regarding these interventions: Knowledge of which interventions are effective in what situations is lacking. Even more importantly, there is no theory (or empirical evidence) about the effects of these interventions on the success of developing initial ideas into concepts. Together, this has caused the usefulness of these interventions for NPD teams to be uncertain at best. To remedy this situation, this study focuses on a costless and easy‐to‐implement intervention: suspending group debate. Suspending group debate refers to a team idea generation and concept development process in which groups debate a problem, ideas for solutions are generated individually, and these ideas are debated and developed into concepts collectively. The authors developed a new theory about the impact of suspending group debate on idea generation and on further concept development. Specifically, they argue that suspending group debate causes groups to generate a higher number of ideas, a higher number of original ideas, and a more diverse set of ideas, but that only the number of original ideas and the diversity of the set of ideas will translate into higher concept quality. The authors also developed new theory about when suspending group debate is especially effective. Specifically, they argue that suspending group debate is especially effective when at least one group member is low on extraversion. This theory is tested using an experimental design in which groups generated ideas and developed concepts for a specific organizational problem. Some groups suspend group debate, while others do not. Results show that suspending group debate indeed causes groups to generate a higher number of ideas, a higher number of original ideas, and a more diverse set of ideas. Importantly, results demonstrate that the effects of suspending group debate are more pronounced for groups with one or more group members that are low on extraversion. Furthermore, suspending group debate also affects concept quality, mediated by the number of original ideas and the diversity of ideas that groups generate (and thus not by the sheer number of ideas generated). Specifically, results show that both the diversity of the idea set as well as the number of original ideas positively influence the innovativeness of the final concept, while only the diversity of the idea set influences the comprehensiveness of the final concept.     

A flexible adaptation of the WIOD database in a virtual laboratory

ABSTRACT

The World Input-Output Database provides a time series of world input–output tables (WIOTs) that have been used for example to understand the manifold effects of the increased integration of markets through international trade. In order to enhance the flexibility of research on global trade issues using WIOD, we implement the WIOT workflow in a collaborative, cloud-based virtual laboratory environment. We demonstrate that a lab-based adaptation of WIOD is able (a) to continuously create and update versions of the WIOTs in a timely, consistent, and cost-effective way, (b) to enhance original information with accompanying information on standard deviations, and (c) to enable flexible re-casting of the entire WIOT time series into user-specific geographical and sectoral classifications.