R/S analysis of foreign exchange rates under two international monetary regimes

The purpose of this study is to examine empirically the behavior of foreign exchange markets during the most recent experiences with fixed and flexible rates. Specifically, this study explores the possibility that long-term dependence is present in the exchange rate series for the British pound, French franc, and German mark in terms of the U.S. dollar. Using R/S analysis, positive long-term dependence is uncovered for each exchange rate during the flexible regime but negative dependence is found in the fixed period.     

Measuring poverty and income distribution in Southeast Asia

The paper surveys the extensive research on the measurement of poverty and inequality in Southeast Asia over the last five decades. It examines the work carried out by both independent scholars and international agencies including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. The paper argues that the household surveys carried out by national statistical agencies across the region, and used by most researchers, are often flawed. These flaws have led to rather misleading results both for individual countries and for cross‐country comparisons. Further problems have been found in the data on purchasing power parities (PPP) which have been used by the World Bank to estimate poverty both in Southeast Asia and in other developing countries. The paper also points out that estimates of poverty and inequality are often politically sensitive, and argues that a more accurate understanding of the estimation problems will only emerge if governments support rather than suppress open debate over measurement problems.     

Scenarios and counterfactuals as modal narratives

Scenarios and counterfactuals are two types of modal narrative. Modal narratives concern themselves with contingency and determinism: with questions of possibility and necessity. While scenarios are future-oriented, focused on what might yet be, counterfactuals are narratives of what might have been. Despite this fundamental temporal difference, consideration of the theoretical and philosophical underpinnings of modal narratives as a genre enables us to elucidate some critical issues concerning scenarios as a foresight methodology. In particular, the scenario literature has tended to avoid extended discussion of its implicit assumptions concerning causation, necessity, possibility and contingency. By confronting the modal nature of foresight methodologies more explicitly, the futures community may begin to lay more secure philosophical foundations for their deployment.     

The Role of a Toolkit in Mobilising Women in Local and Regional Development

This paper introduces UK readers to the EuroFEM Toolkit which has been developed with European Union (EU) funding. The Toolkit is a collection of methods and stories taken from women's projects in European member states and is aimed at supporting, encouraging and facilitating women's involvement in every sector of local and regional development. The context for the development of the Toolkit is set within the debate about gender mainstreaming and what this means for local and regional development.