A random coefficients mixture hidden Markov model for marketing research

The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a framework to model the time-varying effects of marketing mix variables. When employed in a panel data context, it is important to properly account for unobserved heterogeneity across individuals. We propose a new random coefficients mixture HMM (RCMHMM) that allows for flexible patterns of unobserved heterogeneity in both the state-dependent and transition parameters. The RCMHMM nests all HMMs found in the marketing literature. Results of two simulation studies demonstrate that 1) averaging across a large number of different data generating processes, the RCMHMM outperforms all its nested versions using both in-sample and out-of-sample performance and 2) the RCMHMM is more robust than its nested versions when underlying model assumptions are violated. In addition, we apply the RCMHMM to an empirical application where we examine the effectiveness of in-game promotions in increasing the short-term demand for Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. We find that the effectiveness of four promotional categories varies over the course of the season and across teams and that the RCMHMM performs best.     

Pilot workload and fatigue on four intra-European routes: a 12-month mixed-methods evaluation

There were predictions that the European Aviation Safety Agency’s (EASA’s) new Flight Time Limitations (FTLs) (European Union Regulation 83/2014) would adversely affect safety. Following implementation of the new regulations, research into flight-crew fatigue and workload was conducted at a medium-sized U.K-registered low-cost carrier (LCC). A mixed-methods approach drawing on instantaneous self-assessment (ISA) and participant observation was used to measure fatigue and workload on four intra-European routes. A modified U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine Crew Status Survey recorded ISA data on fatigue and workload. The author’s flight-deck observations generated data on the context of flight operations. Two findings stand out. First, 7.1% of those who completed the inbound Top-of-Climb–Top-of-Descent scale claimed to be either ‘Extremely tired’ or ‘Completely exhausted.’ Secondly, 9.3% of those who completed the inbound Top-of-Descent–On-Blocks scale claimed to be either ‘Extremely tired’ or ‘Completely exhausted.’ Pilots recorded maximum and average workload in the range 5–7 most often for phases Boarding–Off-blocks and Top-of-descent–On-blocks. The author recommends that further mixed-methods research into fatigue and workload be conducted at this and other carriers operating under European Union Regulation 83/2014. Research should be conducted regularly.     

Sustainable livelihood principles and urban greening in informal settlements in practice: A case of Zandspruit informal settlement,South Africa

This article looks to investigate the practice of using the ‘sustainable livelihood approach’ in a multifaceted urban greening project, Trees for Homes. The urban greening project was implemented to improve the quality of life and help marginalised citizens of an informal settlement in South Africa to adapt to climate variability through tree planting. We explored the actual execution of the independent techniques being utilised in the implementation of the Trees for Homes project and how it can promote sustainable livelihood objectives in the Zandspruit informal settlement in South Africa. Using a qualitative approach, the study was able to effectively apply sustainable livelihood principles. It was also found, however, that the multi-level principle was limited by the lack of political muscle which is endemic to many disempowered poor citizens of developing economies. Although the project was successful in many ways, political vulnerability within the development cycle threatens the longer term sustainability of the project outcomes.     

Thresholds in the process of international financial integration

The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain “threshold” levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness. In this paper, we develop a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions. We find that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality—the cost-benefit trade-off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied. We also find that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared to those for debt liabilities.     

Quality of Education,Economic Performance and Institutional Environment

This paper addresses two questions. First, how does the quality, rather than the quantity, of education impact economic performance? Second, does the quality of education have a larger impact on economic performance in countries with better institutions (i.e., social and political variables which affect economic outcomes)? Using data from more than fifty countries, we observe that there is a positive relationship between the quality of education and GDP per capita. In addition, we find that the quality of education has a more beneficial effect on GDP per capita in countries with better law and order conditions, government stability, and overall institutional environment. These results remain unchanged under various scenarios.     

Exploring individual predictors of variation in public awareness of expressive and instrumental nonprofit brands

Expressive and instrumental functions provide a way to classify activities that take place in the nonprofit sector. These functions also provide a way to better understand individual's philanthropic involvement with certain types of nonprofit organizations. Despite the usefulness of these classifications, only a few studies have explored demographic, social, and ideological differences in individuals' philanthropic involvement along expressive and instrumental dimensions; and, no studies have explored differences in public awareness of nonprofits along these dimensions. Such awareness, though, could likely be an important precursor to an individual's philanthropic involvement. Thus, the purpose of this study is to explore whether variables known to be associated with variation in philanthropic involvement are also associated with variation in awareness of, what we categorize as, expressive and instrumental nonprofit brands. Using data from a survey of public awareness of, and attitudes toward, nonprofit organizations in San Diego County (n = 1002), our findings show that individuals are more aware of instrumental nonprofit brands than they are of expressive nonprofit brands. However, there are important individual differences to consider. We discuss the theoretical relevance of our findings and offer several practical recommendations for nonprofit administrators.     

Share Tenancy, Ownership Structure, and Prevented Planting Claims in Crop Insurance

A conceptual model based on opportunity cost and expected utility principles establishes linkages between the likelihood of prevented planting claims in crop insurance and existing share leasing arrangements/internal farm business structures. Results of heteroskedastic probit estimation procedures indicate that simpler internal business structures and more dominant farmer–tenant leasing position can increase the probability of submitting a prevented planting claim.     

Capacity Building for Post-Disaster Mental Health Since Katrina: The Role of Community Health Workers

The floods and devastation of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita contributed to socioeconomic instability and psychosocial trauma for the affected communities and populations, significantly for people of limited economic means and persons of color. Though more than 1/3 of the adult population from impacted areas experienced significant psychological distress, few people had access to or received appropriate health or mental health services in the months and years that followed. Community health workers (CHWs)—defined as lay community members whose backgrounds are similar to those for whom they provide such services as culturally relevant health education, individual- and community-level advocacy, and links to the health care system— may represent a particularly promising workforce strategy to increase access to quality mental health services and overcome racial and ethnic disparities in care. In this paper, we briefly review a post-disaster mental health training program for CHWs from the greater New Orleans area. We present preliminary evidence that CHWs remain engaged in addressing post-disaster concerns, and that there is community support for further CHW education. We discuss implications for CHW participation in recovery from future disasters and we highlight the work of Cynthia Carriere, a CHW from the Lower 9th Ward in New Orleans.