THE EFFECTS OF PRESENTATION FORMAT ON THE EFFECTIVENESS AND EFFICIENCY OF AUDITORS‘ ANALYTICAL REVIEW JUDGMENTS

Modern audit practice has focused increasing attention on the use of analytical review procedures to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of audits. To assist in this endeavour, one branch of analytical review research has investigated the judgment processes that auditors' use in analytical review and the development of decision aids to improve these processes. Several recent papers have considered how alternative presentations of financial and operating data, specifically graphs versus tables, may affect the effectiveness of auditors' analytical review judgments. However, the results have been mixed. This study investigated the expectation that there would be effectiveness and efficiency performance advantages for auditors receiving graphically presented data over those receiving tabular presented data in an analytical review setting. This paper reports on the results of an experiment that examined the impact of graphs versus tables on the effectiveness of sales account balance prediction, confidence in this prediction and the setting of a noninvestigation region, and the relative time efficiency with which these tasks were completed, for an analytical review of sales for a retailing client. The study found mixed results for the accuracy of the sales account balance predictions of the graphical and tabular treatment groups, with no difference found when a regression model estimate of the ‘correct’ prediction was used and greater accuracy for the graphical group when the actual audited sales account balance was used as the accuracy benchmark. No significant differences between treatment groups was found for their confidence in their sales account balance predictions and the width of the noninvestigation regions set. However, a significant time advantage was found for the graphical group. These findings suggest that there may a useful role for the use of graphs as decision aids in income statement related analytical review procedures in improving audit efficiency without sacrificing audit effectiveness.     

What to do if a dollar is not a dollar? The impact of inflation risk on production and risk management

An entrepreneur faces two types of risk: one from income generation, one from income spending. His income from firm profits is risky due to output price fluctuations and other risks. As a consumer, he is also exposed to inflation risk since he maximizes expected utility of real income. This article focuses on optimal production and risk management decisions of a risk‐averse entrepreneur jointly facing tradable output price risk and untradable inflation risk. Inflation risk applies multiplicatively to the entrepreneur's entire nominal income. Relative risk aversion and the risks' joint distribution determine the effect of introducing a futures market on production. For dependent risks, this effect may be negative if relative risk aversion is above one. Relative risk aversion and the joint distribution also determine optimal risk management with futures contracts where speculation on a real risk premium and cross hedging may be conflicting objectives. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:371–386, 2002     

External economic policy and development policy

Since 1970 the world economy has gone through a series of grave crises which have stimulated an intensive discussion about the economic and political relations between industrialized and developing countries. As seen from the Federal Republic of Germany, the witnessed events have not only an international dimension, but they focus attention again on one particular problem of national economic policy, the relationship of external economic policy and development policy, because the new strains on the international plane are in part reflected by this relationship.     

Schuldenkrise in der Europäischen Union

Die Krise Griechenlands w?chst sich zu einer Gefahr für den gesamten Euroraum aus. Wie soll die Europ?ische Union darauf reagieren? Sie befindet sich im Dilemma zwischen Bailout und Bestrafung des „Defizitsünders“. Das erste scheint für den Bestand der W?hrungsunion unvermeidlich, das zweite ist erforderlich, um einen Moral Hazard zu vermeiden.     

What is going on in the oil market?

Conclusion In this article, we propose a consistent view on the recent oil-price history based on fundamental data and economic theory. We sum up: After the turn of the century three major stylized shocks have hit market. First, the demand curve has shifted fight outwards, mainly driven, as extensively reported in the media, by sustained growth in China and other Asian Countries. Second, supply disruptions in countries with low extraction costs (Iraq and Venezuela) have shifted the supply curve to the left. Third, we show that speculators adjust their inventories in order to take advantage of predictable price fluctuations and play themselves a major role in the price formation. Optimal storage theory implies that aggregate inventories are negatively related to the oil price and positively to the volatility of supply and demand shocks. We provide evidence that the political events in the last years have increased volatility and induced the inventory curve to shift right outwards. We analyze in a graphical framework the interaction of all these shocks and conclude that speculators have caused the oil price to overshoot in the short run its long-run fundamental value. However, this is not at all attributable to market failure or the harmfulness of speculators. In fact, the opposite is true. Speculators have in general a dampening effect on the oil price. The record oil price in the very recent history is partly a consequence of speculators maintaining or building-up inventories to cope with the supply and demand shocks to come. Hence, high prices represent a short-term toll for future price stability. It follows from our analysis that the oil price is expected to fall towards its long-term mean, provided that no further shocks hit the economy and, critically, the oil supply. As we saw, this prediction is consistent with the observed prices in the futures markets. Also in terms of future price volatility, the outlook is rather upbeat. The increased inventory levels held by speculators will cushion the spot market against fluctuations in natural supply and demand and limit the degree to which the currently high underlying volatility will translate into higher price volatility. We would like to thank Manuel Ammann, Bernd Brommundt, Stephan Kessler, Ralf Seiz, Michael Verhofen, Hemrich von Wyss, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments We are particularly indebted to Sergej Peisotchenko at United Energy System (UES) of Russia and Jan Gjerde at Shell for clearing us up on technical aspects of oil production