Options on Leveraged Equity: Theory and Empirical Tests

We develop an option pricing model for calls and puts written on leveraged equity in an economy with corporate taxes and bankruptcy costs. The model explains implied Black-Scholes volatility biases by relating them to the firm's structural characteristics such as leverage and debt covenants. We test the model by comparing predicted pricing biases with biases observed in a large cross-section of firms with liquid exchange traded option contracts. Our empirical study detects leverage related pricing biases. The magnitudes of these biases correspond to those predicted by our model. We also find significant pricing biases for firms financed primarily by short-term debt. This supports our model because short-term debt introduces net-worth hurdles similar to net-worth covenants.     

Buying Australian

We investigate the short-run effects on the trade balance and on aggregate employment of persuading domestic residents to switch expenditure from imports to domestic commodities. Simulations with ORANI indicate that the favourable initial effects of such switches may be offset significantly by induced demand for imports as domestic production expands and by the inflationary effects of domestic expansion which erode the international competitiveness of exports and import-competing products .     

PROFITABILITY,TRANSACTIONAL ALIGNMENT,AND ORGANIZATIONAL MORTALITY IN THE U.S. TRUCKING INDUSTRY

The winds of creative destruction rarely blow more fiercely than in a newly deregulated environment. Managers simultaneously face a novel focus on operating efficiency and an onslaught of new competitors. What must managers do to enable their firms to survive in such an environment? What factors bear on firms’ survival? This paper presents an analysis of mortality of large motor carriers in the U.S. interstate for-hire trucking industry after deregulation. It examines this phenomenon through a multidisciplinary lens that encompasses organizational ecology, neoclassical economics, and transaction cost economics. The paper posits that carrier mortality is a function of both firm-level and industry-level attributes, which are drawn from both ecological and economic theories. While each of these theories separately informs motor carrier mortality, the inclusion of predictions derived from both disciplines in one model significantly increases explanatory power over either theory evaluated alone. The empirical analysis is among the first to show increased mortality when firms do not adhere to operating policies consistent with transaction cost minimization principles. In sum, managers are well advised to adopt a multidisciplinary approach to strategy to ensure their firms’ survival. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gender Effects in Grievance Arbitration

This study investigates arbitrators' decisions in 557 suspension cases and reveals that, other things equal, male arbitrators were 74 per cent more likely to sustain the grievances of female grievants than male grievants. There was no evidence, however, that female arbitrators treat male and female grievants differently. A review of studies on gender effects in arbitration suggests a weak gender effect where male arbitrators are more lenient with female grievants than with male grievants.     

BOOK REVIEWS

BRITISH ECONOMIC POLICY 1960–74 ed. F. T. Blackaby THE MANAGEMENT OF INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS by Kevin Hawkins Pelican THE RESURGENCE OF CLASS CONFLICT IN WESTERN EUROPE SINCE 1968 Volume One: National Studies Volume Two: Comparative Analysis Colin Crouch and Alessandro Pizzorno (eds.) Macmillan TRADE UNIONISM IN TELEVISION by P. Seglow     

Subprime Mortgage Defaults and Credit Default Swaps

We offer the first empirical evidence on the adverse effect of credit default swap (CDS) coverage on subprime mortgage defaults. Using a large database of privately securitized mortgages, we find that higher defaults concentrate in mortgage pools with concurrent CDS coverage, and within these pools the loans originated after or shortly before the start of CDS coverage have an even higher delinquency rate. The results are robust across zip code and origination quarter cohorts. Overall, we show that CDS coverage helped drive higher mortgage defaults during the financial crisis.     

Stock Options as Lotteries

We investigate the relationship between ex ante total skewness and holding returns on individual equity options. Recent theoretical developments predict a negative relationship between total skewness and average returns, in contrast to the traditional view that only coskewness is priced. We find, consistent with recent theory, that total skewness exhibits a strong negative relationship with average option returns. Differences in average returns for option portfolios sorted on ex ante skewness range from 10% to 50% per week, even after controlling for risk. Our findings suggest that these large premiums compensate intermediaries for bearing unhedgeable risk when accommodating investor demand for lottery‐like options.