Inflation,output and stock prices: evidence from Latin America

Research in economics and finance documents a puzzling negative relationship between stock returns and inflation rate in markets of industrialized economies. The present study investigates this relationship for the developing markets of Peru and Chile. Fama's model of linkages between inflation and real economic activity constitutes the theoretical framework of this paper. The study tests whether the negative relationship between equity returns and inflation is a result of a ‘proxy effect’, namely, a negative relationship between inflation and real economic activity. The evidence for Peru and Chile does not provide strong support for Fama's hypothesis. It is shown that the negative relationship between the real stock returns and unexpected inflation persists after purging inflation of the effects of the real economic activity. The long‐run equilibrium between stock prices and general price levels is weak, as indicated by the findings of the Johansen and Juselius co‐integration tests. However, in both economies, stock prices and general price levels seem to show a strong long‐run equilibrium with the real economic activity. These findings suggest that in the long‐run, Fama's propositions A and B are supported for Peru and Chile. The disparity between traditional regression and co‐integration test results suggest that it may be prudent to re‐examine the proxy effect in the framework of a long‐run relationship before denying its validity. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scheduling trucks in cross-docking systems: A robust meta-heuristics approach

In a cross-docking system, trucks must be scheduled to minimize the total flow time of the system. This problem is NP-hard, and this study proposes two hybrid meta-heuristics—hybrid simulated annealing and hybrid variable neighborhood search—to solve it by achieving the best sequence of truck pairs. The Taguchi method serves to reveal the best robustness of these algorithms. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods, especially for large-sized problems, this study solves various test problems, and the computational results clearly reveal that the proposed methods outperform previous approaches.     

Inflation, output, and stock prices: Evidence from two major emerging markets

Research in economics and finance documents a puzzling negative relationship between stock returns and inflation rates in markets of industrialized economies. The present study investigates this relationship for Korea and Mexico. We show that the negative relationship between the real stock returns and unexpected inflation persists after purging inflation of the effects of the real economic activity. Johansen and Juselius cointegration tests verify that the long-run equilibrium between stock prices and general price levels is weak. However, in both economies, stock prices and general price levels seem to show a strong long-run equilibrium with the real economic activity. This paper benefited from the constructive suggestions of an anonymous referee. The remaining errors are the authors’ responsibility. Financial support from the Dr. Robert B. Pamplin, Jr., School of Business Administration, University of Portland, is greatly appreciated.     

Do Commodity Traders Herd?

We test for herding using data on aggregate trader positions for four commodities over 20 years. We show that while the positions of commodity traders are highly related, the relatedness falls short of herding. The cross‐commodity relatedness in trader positions is almost entirely explained by common demand and supply factors.     

U.S. interest rates and the exchange value of the dollar: A test of causality

This study examines the causal relationship between interset rates and the exchange value of the dollar using Granger causality tests. Cointegration tests show that error correction models are not necessary in this case. The results suggest that the combination of short- and long-term U.S. interest rates, in nominal or real terms, Granger cause the exchange value of the dollar, and that the difference between nominal domestic and foreign rates does not Granger cause the exchange value of the dollar. This result supports the proposition that budget deficits contribute to trade deficits.     

The Razor's edge: Managing MNC affiliates in Iran

Much has been written on the nature of international assignees’ experiences of managing Multinational Corporation (MNC) affiliates in the context of Western economies. This study aims to broaden the debate and elucidate these issues in the largely overlooked region of Middle East with a particular focus on Iran. Data from six MNC affiliates across two high growth global industries reveals that the nature of international assignees’ experiences can be explained in terms of desirable, indifference, and undesirable effects of managing MNC affiliates. Specifically, it was found that the international assignees’ perceptions of managing MNC affiliates were formed prior to their appointments. Furthermore, while conformance to headquarter (HQ) managerial orientations was seen to serve as a proxy for earlier desirable experiences of these international assignees, their current performance was seen to deteriorate by the need to fully comply with the HQ's way of doing things. Together, these findings support the view that the degree of congruence or fit between, on the one hand, the HQ and international assignees’ orientations, and on the other hand, between the international assignees and the host country culture could have implications for the success or failure of the international assignees in the context of Iranian-based MNCs. Finally, the paper concludes with implications and lessons for policy makers, practitioners and academics.     

An econometric analysis of health care reform in the U.S.

This paper simulates the effects of funding a comprehensive health plan (CHP) on consumer spending in the U.S. using a demographically enhanced dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System model. Quarterly observations on personal consumption expenditures and the relevant price indices of seven major commodity and service groups in the U.S. for the period 1963. 1 through 1989.4 comprise our data set. Our results show that the CHP financing causes no significant adjustment on the demand-side of the economy, i.e., consumer expenditures on the seven major commodity and service groups would decrease slightly in the short run under the CHP financing. (JEL D00)