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41.
This paper employs duration analysis to investigate the timing of default in the UK mortgage market. Our analysis is performed on an ex ante basis, in that our explanatory variables are available to mortgage lenders when the loan is first made. We estimate both standard Weibull distributions and generalizations of the Weibull that permit non-monotonic hazard functions. The models fit the data well, suggesting that we have captured the major sources of variation in duration. We find that ‘cash flow’ variables, such as salary and interest rate paid, play the largest role. Surprisingly, loan-to-value ratios are either insignificant or influence default times in a counter-intuitive direction. 相似文献
42.
The methodology in this paper combines an input–output structural decomposition approach with the supply-side perspective of mainstream growth accounting. In explaining the intertemporal change in consumption per worker, three sets of effects are distinguished. First, contributions due to several types of technological changes are considered. Second, effects caused by changes in international trade are discerned. Third, composition effects that reflect structural shifts in demand (including changes in tastes) are quantified. As an empirical illustration, we analyze the developments in the U.K. between 1979 and 1990. 相似文献
43.
Recently, applications of cooperative game theory to economic allocation problems have gained popularity. We investigate a
class of cooperative games that generalizes some economic applications with a similar structure. These are the so-called line-graph
games being cooperative TU-games in which the players are linearly ordered. Examples of situations that can be modeled like
this are sequencing situations and water distribution problems. We define four properties with respect to deleting edges that
each selects a unique component efficient solution on the class of line-graph games. We interpret these solutions and properties
in terms of dividend distributions, and apply them to economic situations.
This research has been done while the third author was visiting Tinbergen Institute at the Free University, Amsterdam. The
research is part of the Research Programme “Strategic and Cooperative Decision Making” at the Department of Econometrics.
Financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) in the framework of the Russian-Dutch programme
for scientific cooperation, is gratefully acknowledged. The third author also appreciates partial financial support from the
Russian Leading Scientific Schools Fund (grant 80.2003.6) and Russian Humanitarian Scientific Fund (grant 02-02-00189a). We
thank three anonymous referees for their valuable comments. 相似文献
44.
45.
Decomposing Redistributive Effects of Taxes and Transfers in Australia: Annual and Lifetime Measures
This paper decomposes the redistributive effect on annual and lifetime inquality of a range of taxes and transfers in Australia, using a dynamic cohort lifetime simulation model. The redistributive effect is decomposed into vertical, horizontal and reranking effects. Horizontal inequities in the tax and transfer system are found to be negligible. The extent of reranking is greater in the lifetime than in the annual context and is affected by the equivalence scales used to adjust household incomes. If no adjustment is made to household incomes, reranking is about nine per cent of the reduction in lifetime inequality. However, if each child is counted as equivalent to one-third of an adult, reranking is found to be less than one per cent. 相似文献
46.
Joïlle Noailly Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh Cees A. Withagen 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2003,13(2):183-200
Abstract. Economic theories of managing renewable resources, such as fisheries and forestry, traditionally assume that individual harvesters
are perfectly rational and thus able to compute the harvesting strategy that maximizes their discounted profits. The current
paper presents an alternative approach based on bounded rationality and evolutionary mechanisms. It is assumed that individual
harvesters face a choice between two harvesting strategies. The evolution of the distribution of strategies in the population
is modeled through a replicator dynamics equation. The latter captures the idea that strategies yielding above average profits
are demanded more than strategies yielding below average profits, so that the first type ends up accounting for a larger part
in the population. From a mathematical perspective, the combination of resource and evolutionary processes leads to complex
dynamics. The paper presents the existence and stability conditions for each steady-state of the system and analyzes dynamic
paths to the equilibrium. In addition, effects of changes in prices are analyzed. A main result of the paper is that under
certain conditions both strategies can survive in the long-run.
Correspondence to: J. Noailly 相似文献
47.
48.
The ‘wage space’, which is defined as the sum of price inflation and labour productivity growth, has played a major role as an indicator of allowable wage increases in the post-war wage negotiations in the Netherlands. This paper shows that: (a) wages and the wage space are co-integrated; (b) the deviation between wages and the wage space may act as an error correction term in the wage equation when both variables are identified as I(2); and (c) political consensus and the threat of labour conflicts (rather than actual strike activity) may be identified as the ‘mechanism’ behind this error correction in the wage equation. 相似文献
49.
A way out of the credibility crisis of models used in integrated environmental assessment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jeroen P. van der Sluijs 《Futures》2002,34(2):133-146
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have been widely used in environmental policy making because they simulate natural and socio-economic systems by integrating knowledge derived from a wide range of disciplines. The current IAMs have been found to be limited due to their inability to display both the value-laden nature of the assumptions that underlie the model and the uncertainties in their outputs. A Post-Normal Science approach is required for dealing with these issues, involving participation of ‘extended peer communities’ providing their ‘extended facts’. 相似文献
50.