The efficiency of the Scandinavian banking sector – a wavelet quantile regression analysis

In this article, the Scandinavian housing financing market is analysed in order to determine whether the interest rate price-discovery processes of Denmark, Norway and Sweden are efficient. Based on wavelet quantile regression analysis, we find systematic positive asymmetric price transmission (APT) inefficiencies. We conclude that there is a very high propensity for mortgage lenders to directly increase its customers’ mortgage interest rates subsequently to an increase in its borrowing costs. However, after a corresponding borrowing cost decrease, the same mortgage lenders are very slow to decrease its customers’ mortgage rates. These positive coefficients for so-called APT effects are found in all Scandinavian countries, even if the coefficients for Norway were not statistically significant. Wavelet quantile regression analysis, with a focus on the relevant higher percentiles, is easily motivated since the mortgage rates are adjusted very infrequently. Moreover, wavelet decomposition allows a robust analysis at different time frequency scales, while simultaneously controlling for nonstationary trends, autocorrelation and structural breaks. Except for the still positive but yet insignificant and inconclusive coefficients for Norway, the result is very clear-cut. Regardless of which wavelet scaling decomposition or quantile coefficient that is studied – positive APT effects are clearly identified and confirmed on the Scandinavian mortgage market.     

The value of commuting time in an empirical on-the-job search model – an application based on moments from two samples

This article estimates the Value of Commuting Time (VOCT) among Swedish males in an empirical on-the-job search model. It uses a large sample of employee-establishment linked data obtained from administrative registers. The sample lacks information on mode choice for the journey to work. We therefore estimate a mode choice model on another sample and use this model to link the administrative data to the relevant set of travel times, costs and distances. The VOCT is found to be 1.8 times the net hourly wage rate in the sample. The relatively high estimate results from a high VOCT among cohabiting men.     

Weshalb konjunkturprognostiker regelmäßig den wetterbericht studieren sollten

Certainly, economic activity is infl uenced by weather conditions. In short term economic forecast, normal weather fl uctuations over the year are covered by using seasonally adjusted fi gures. However, they are calculated by time series methods and do not take into account specifi c weather conditions such as unusually mild or cold winters. In particular in the fi rst quarter of a year, it is often diffi cult to identify whether short term shifts in economic activity are due to cyclical reasons ore merely refl ect specifi c weather conditions. The paper shows that this uncertainty leads to biased forecast. After mild winters forecasts of GDP and investment in construction tend to be over optimistic whereas they are too pessimistic after atypically cold winters.