Race and employment dislocation in California’s aerospace industry

This article finds that African American and Latino workers have borne a disproportionate share of employment costs associated with defense cuts in California’s aerospace industry. The data for this analysis come from administrative files, which contain demographic and employment-related information for everyone who collects unemployment-insurance benefits. The analysis shows that African Americans suffered higher displacement rates, longer unemployment spells, and poorer outcomes in new jobs than whites. Latinos were disadvantaged in several ways, but not consistently in all categories. Asian Americans, on the other hand, generally fared better than whites. These results show that economic dislocation, in the form of defense cuts, reinforces racial inequality in the labor market.     

Hawker centres as tourist attractions: The case of Singapore

Cooked food hawkers are a sometimes neglected part of the tourism and hospitality industries, yet can play a significant role as a visitor attraction which offers both inexpensive food and insights into the contemporary society and heritage of the destination. Hawking is ubiquitous in much of South East Asia where it is integral to the life of local residents and this includes Singapore, the focus of the paper which also comments on the relationship between food and tourism in general. The cooked food hawker sector in the city state is described and the results of a survey of tourists about their experiences of dining at hawker centres are presented. Responses appear favourable on the whole, but some concerns are identified. It seems that hawkers may have unrealised potential as an amenity for tourists, although widening their appeal and use is a challenging task compounded by the threat to the survival of hawker centres from urban development pressures.     

International Trade and the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment in a Heckscher-Ohlin World Economy

This paper develops a (stylized Asia-America) Heckscher-Ohlin world economy in which the equilibrium rate of unemployment is endogenous. We examine the impact of various economic shocks on unemployment in the global economy. Harrod-neutral or Hicks-neutral technical progress across all industries in Asia leads to a terms of trade improvement for America but raises America's unemployment rate. Introducing a third country such as the block of former socialist economies results in higher unemployment for both Asia and America. Protection in America lowers American equilibrium unemployment but raises Asia's unemployment. [E24]     

Why Punish? Social reciprocity and the enforcement of prosocial norms

Recently economists have become interested in why people who face social dilemmas in the experimental lab use the seemingly incredible threat of punishment to deter free riding. Three theories with evolutionary microfoundations have been developed to explain punishment. We survey these theories and use behavioral data from surveys and experiments to show that the theory called social reciprocity in which people punish norm violators indiscriminately explains punishment best.JEL Classification: C91, C92, D64, H41 Correspondence to: Jeffrey P. CarpenterWe thank Carolyn Craven, Corinna Noelke and two referees for comments, and Middlebury College for financial assistance. In addition, Carpenter acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (SES-CAREER 0092953).     

A learning-based model of repeated games with incomplete information

This paper tests a learning-based model of strategic teaching in repeated games with incomplete information. The repeated game has a long-run player whose type is unknown to a group of short-run players. The proposed model assumes a fraction of ‘short-run’ players follow a one-parameter learning model (self-tuning EWA). In addition, some ‘long-run’ players are myopic while others are sophisticated and rationally anticipate how short-run players adjust their actions over time and “teach” the short-run players to maximize their long-run payoffs. All players optimize noisily. The proposed model nests an agent-based quantal-response equilibrium (AQRE) and the standard equilibrium models as special cases. Using data from 28 experimental sessions of trust and entry repeated games, including 8 previously unpublished sessions, the model fits substantially better than chance and much better than standard equilibrium models. Estimates show that most of the long-run players are sophisticated, and short-run players become more sophisticated with experience.     

On a class of discrete distributions arising from the birth-death-with-immigration process

This paper considers a class of distributions which may be regarded as the convolution of a negative binomial and a stopped-sum generalized hypergeometric factorial-moment random variables. Some properties are derived and it is shown that this class of distributions is a subset of distributions for the birth-and-death process with immigration (also reversible counter system). Formulations by mixing, limiting distributions and maximum likelihood equations are also discussed.     

Cost-effectiveness of omalizumab add-on to standard-of-care therapy in patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma in a Brazilian healthcare setting

Objective: Omalizumab add-on to standard-of-care therapy has proven to be efficacious in severe asthma patients for whom exacerbations cannot be controlled otherwise. Moreover, evidence from different healthcare settings suggests reduced healthcare resource utilization with omalizumab. Based on these findings, this study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the addition of omalizumab to standard-of-care therapy in patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma in a Brazilian healthcare setting.

Methods: A previously published Markov model was adapted using Brazil-specific unit costs to compare the costs and outcomes of the addition of omalizumab to standard-of-care therapy vs standard-of-care therapy alone. Model inputs were largely based on the eXpeRience study. Costs and health outcomes were calculated for lifetime-years and were annually discounted at 5%. Both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results: An additional cost of R$280,400 for 5.20 additional quality-adjusted life-years was estimated with the addition of omalizumab to standard-of-care therapy, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of R$53,890. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that discount rates, standard-of-care therapy exacerbation rates, and exacerbation-related mortality rates had the largest impact on incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Limitations: Assumptions of lifetime treatment adherence and rate of future exacerbations, independent of previous events, might affect the findings. The lack of Brazilian patients in the eXpeRience study may affect the findings, although sample size and baseline characteristics suggest that the modeled population closely resembles Brazilian severe allergic asthma patients.

Conclusion: Results indicate that omalizumab as an add-on therapy is more cost-effective than standard-of-care therapy alone for Brazilian patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma, based on the World Health Organization’s cost-effectiveness threshold of up to 3-times the gross domestic product.     

Exchange-rate policy in East Asia after the fall: how much have things changed?

This paper evaluates the changes in the exchange-rate policies of East Asian economies in the aftermath of the currency crisis and the process in which the exchange-market stability was re-established. The empirical analysis evaluates the changing roles of the yen and the US dollar in the currency baskets, the shifts in the volatility of the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals and their implications on exchange-rate management, the exchange-market perception of credibility and risk of the postcrisis exchange-rate regimes, and the process of reversion to fundamental values after the massive currency depreciation.The analysis shows that after the abandonment of the quasi-dollar peg, the yen had gained a greater weight in the currency baskets and the greater flexibility in which the exchange rates are being managed serve to accommodate the greater volatility in the macroeconomic fundamentals. The improvement in the macroeconomic conditions and the greater credibility that has been acquired by the regional monetary authorities had allowed the exchange market to stabilize and enabled the exchange rates to revert back to their fundamental values.