SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk that incorporates the structural characteristics of the financial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain financial stress using both public and proprietary supervisory data from systemically important institutions, regressing institutional imbalances using an optimal lag method. The Systemic Assessment of Financial Environment (SAFE) EWS monitors microprudential information from the largest bank holding companies to anticipate the buildup of macroeconomic stresses in the financial markets. To mitigate inherent uncertainty, SAFE develops a set of medium-term forecasting specifications that gives policymakers enough time to take ex-ante policy action and a set of short-term forecasting specifications for verification and adjustment of supervisory actions. This paper highlights the application of these models to stress testing and policy.     

Online Shoppers' Perceptions and Use of Comparison-Shopping Sites: An Exploratory Study

Comparison-shopping sites currently offer online shoppers various combinations of free services such as price comparisons, merchant ratings, links to e-tailers’ websites, and/or customer reviews in the search results page(s). The utility and market values of shopping comparison sites have attracted Internet giants such as eBay, Google, and Yahoo to the extent of developing or acquiring such sites. Scholarly research on comparison-shopping sites has focused on (1) trust in online recommendation agents, and (2) methods used by electronic agents to produce the recommendations. Our study explored how online shoppers’ attitudes toward comparison-shopping sites impact perceived credibility and usefulness of these sites. We also examined online shoppers’ merchant selection criteria and their likelihood to continue using comparison-shopping sites. One interesting finding from our study was that merchants need to be strong on site ratings and brand awareness to appeal to a wide online market. The finding dispelled the notion that e-tailers presented by shopping comparison sites need to compete, basically, only on price.     

Online Shopper Reviews: Ramifications for Promotion and Website Utility

Today's consumers are empowered with online shopper reviews which are mostly written and posted by buyers, customers, users, or visitors at a website. Shopper reviews will become more popular and ubiquitous in e-tailing in the near future. However, the marketing literature is still limited when it comes to knowledge of how shoppers perceive and use online reviews in their purchase decisions. Hence, this study explored shoppers’ predispositions toward positive or negative reviews and examined the impact of consumers’ attitudes and usage patterns on their perceived helpfulness and credibility of online shopper/peer reviews. One interesting finding from our study of 342 online shoppers was that consumers who would pay greater attention to positive reviews gave reviews more credible and usefulness ratings than their counterparts who would focus on the negative reviews.     

Do REITs Manipulate Their Financial Results Around Seasoned Equity Offerings? Evidence from US Equity REITs

This study addresses two questions: Is there earnings management in the REIT industry around seasoned equity offerings (SEO)? How is earnings management affected by financial and governance factors? Discretionary accruals methods are used to measure earnings management. In addition, the difference between actual and calculated FFO is used to capture the potential FFO manipulation. We examine how these manipulation measures change in the five quarters around SEOs. Moreover, we investigate how a REIT’s earnings management decision is affected by its financial structure, operating style, external auditor and corporate governance. We find clear evidence of FFO manipulation around SEOs, but the extent of earnings management is relatively weaker. We find that REITs issuing SEOs more often are more aggressive in manipulating FFO than earnings. Moreover, there is a notable difference between these two types of financial results manipulation. A mean-reversion trend is found in discretionary accruals, but not for FFO manipulation. Manipulation in financial results is influenced by various factors. A diminished capability to generate cash flow, high leverage, volatile cash flow, frequent SEOs and slack corporate governance are all the features of REITs more likely to manipulate financial results.     

REIT Institutional Ownership Dynamics and the Financial Crisis

Collectively, institutional investors hold large ownership stakes in REITs. The traditional view is that institutions are both long-term and passive investors. The financial crisis beginning in 2007 provides an opportunity to analyze the investment choices of institutional investors before, during, and after the crisis. Our results indicate that institutional ownership increased prior to the financial crisis, declined significantly during the period of market stress, but rebounded after. These results hold for four institutional investor subtypes: mutual funds/investment advisors, bank trusts, insurance companies, and other institutions, with mutual funds/investment advisors and bank trusts most clearly exhibiting this pattern. We also find evidence that institutions actively manage their REIT portfolios, displaying a “flight to quality” after the market downturn by reducing beta and individual risk exposure, and by increasing ownership in larger REITs.     

YVR: The development of Vancouver international airport as an air gateway to North America

When the completed transcontinental Canadian Pacific railroad reached its western terminus at Vancouver in 1884, a major international trade route was established. Steamships soon began crossing the Pacific with cargoes of wheat and lumber and the city became Canada's gateway to the Pacific. With the advent of the age of air travel–despite the relatively modest beginnings of its international airport–the city in turn became the country's aviation gateway. In recent years, however, Vancouver International Airport has set its sights toward even more lofty goals. This article traces the development of the airport, and how a combination of factors including a favorable geographical location, an air treaty between the United States and Canada, and the resurrection of a near-bankrupt airline through partnership with a major American air carrier, are helping its ambitions to be a gateway to North America. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Currency exposures of the oil and natural gas stock prices in the Hushen-300 stock market： A nonlinear model approach

The paper embarks to investigate the relationship between currency risk and stock prices of the oil and natural gas exploitation industry in the value-weighted Hushen-300 stock market, by applying the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model （CAPM） and nonlinear exchange rate exposure model to the Renminbi against US dollar. The results show that the currency exposure does vary in the oil-gas stock prices throughout the bull and bear market. The study suggests that the models of the equilibrium exchange rate exposure must be extended to considering the nonlinear exchange rate exposure, the regime periods of bull and bear market, and the industry types that is sensitive to the currency exposures. The nonlinear dynamic relationship between the exchange rate changes and the Chinese energy stock prices throughout the bull and bear market add to the recent empirical evidences that foreign exchange markets and stock markets are closely correlated.     

“Since You’re Asking. . . ”: Free Text Commentaries in an Epidemiological Study of Low Back Pain Consulters in Primary Care

As part of a longitudinal mixed-method study on low back pain (LBP), free-text comments were invited at the end of the 12 month follow-up survey questionnaire. 80% of respondents used this option and provided a wealth of material so that comparisons could be made with survey and interview results. People reported pain in other parts of the body apart from LBP, and illustrated the impact of LBP on physical ability and work, psychological well-being and social activities. Free-text material offers valuable insights that strengthen the findings of the survey, and the study as a whole.