Pro-poor growth and social protection in South Africa: Exploring the interactions

This study evaluates the impact of South Africa's long-term economic growth on household poverty and inequality between 1995 and 2005. We find a decline in aggregate levels of poverty, but increasing levels of inequality. The evidence suggests that the growth model provides substantial redistributive income support to the poor through the social grant programme, whilst offering few returns to those in the middle of the distribution.     

A social network analysis of the structure and evolution of intra‐African trade

We used social network analysis to examine the country attributes and patterns of intra‐African trade between 2002 and 2017. The results showed that, generally, trade networks in Africa have become denser, and have the characteristics of the core‐periphery structure and small world phenomenon. Trade imbalances are widely found among African countries with the evidence that structure holes exist in intra‐African trade networks highlighted by the motif detectors. Using Quadratic Assignment Procedure, we found that countries that possess closer economic, geographic and cultural distance, but longer institutional distance, are more likely to form trade networks. However, many countries and the regional economic communities on the continent, have not adequately manifested these favourable characteristics for enhancing intra‐African trade. The implications are proposed that countries should develop their strategies, expedite structural adjustment, and foster competitive industries to cope with the external competition and seize opportunities of regional integration brought by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. It is also critical to efficiently address the overlapping problems of regional economic communities and intensify their coordination with AfCFTA.     

RIGID PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. SCANNER DATA

This article uses weekly scanner data from two small U.S. cities to characterize time and state dependence of grocers' pricing decisions. In these data, the probability of a nominal adjustment declines with the time since the last price change. A store's price for a particular product typically goes through several price changes in rapid succession before settling down. We also detect state dependence: The probability of a nominal adjustment is highest when a store's price substantially differs from the average of other stores' prices. However, extreme relative prices typically reflect the store's recent changes instead of changes in average prices.     

Effects of treatment beyond the treated: a general equilibrium impact evaluation of Lesotho's cash grants program

Africa's social cash transfer programs target the most resource‐constrained households, unlikely to expand supply in response to transfer‐induced demand. We propose a local economy‐wide impact evaluation model and use it to evaluate local spillovers from Lesotho's Child Grants Program. We report Monte‐Carlo confidence bounds around impact‐simulation results. We find significant spillovers to nonrecipient households and significant real income multipliers, although the latter are dampened if factor supply constraints generate excessive inflationary pressures. Our findings raise questions about how to measure the impacts of cash transfers. Evaluations focusing only on eligible households are likely to significantly understate program impacts.     

Stakeholder Multiplicity: Toward an Understanding of the Interactions between Stakeholders

While stakeholder theory has traditionally considered organization’s interactions with stakeholders in terms of independent, dyadic relationships, recent scholarship has pointed to the fact that organizations exist within a complex network of intertwining relationships [e.g., Rowley, T. J.: 1997, The Academy of Management Review 22(4), 887–910]. However, further theoretical and empirical development of the interactions between stakeholders has been lacking. In this paper, we develop a framework for understanding and measuring the effects upon the organization of competing, complementary and cooperative stakeholder interactions, which we refer to as stakeholder multiplicity. We draw upon three forms of fit (i.e. fit as matching, fit as moderation, and fit as gestalts; Venkatraman, N.: 1989) to develop a framework for understanding stakeholder multiplicity based upon the direction, strength, and synergies of the interacting claims. Additionally, we draw upon the theory of stakeholder identification and salience of Mitchell et al. (1997), which we argue provides a more relevant and significantly more illustrative explanation of the nature and effects of stakeholder interactions upon the organization than the network approach of Rowley (1997). Furthermore, we ground our framework through reference to three stakeholder groups (i.e. governments, customers, and employees) and the stakeholder issue of concern for the natural environment. We propose a hierarchy of the multiplicity strength of influence of these three stakeholder groups. Potential measurement and implications are discussed.     

Inefficient trade patterns: Excessive trade, cross-hauling and dumping

I study an example of a competitive environment in which trade occurs in a sequential manner. In this example, a country with a stable demand may suffer from trade with a country with unstable demand, there may be too much trade, a country may import and export the same good in the same period (cross-hauling) and dumping may occur. The timing of delivery is important. When delivery occurs before trade (delivery to stocks), trade improves welfare, there is dumping but no cross-hauling. When delivery occurs after trade (delivery to order), trade may reduce welfare and cross-hauling may occur.     

How limiting is finance for Dutch dairy farms? A dynamic profit analysis

Accessibility to financial resources is considered a prevalent problem in the agricultural sector. We develop an approach to quantify the long-term opportunity costs of financial constraints in relation to peers who do not face any financial constraints. Using data on past financial performance, we assess creditworthiness and the size of an additional accessible bank loan to farmers. Combining this with data on reported expenditure, we determine the accessible finance. We quantify the opportunity cost as the forgone dynamic profit (intertemporal profit in current-value terms) from financial constraints. Using data envelopment analysis, we apply our approach to 264 specialised Dutch dairy farms for the years 2006–2017 and explore the potential impact of changes in finance provision for several scenarios. Our results show an increasing gap between frontrunners and other farmers, as the latter generate progressively less dynamic profit in comparison to their best peers. The gap between the dynamic profit of the average farm and that of its best peers from their production and investment decisions made over the span of 1 year grew from €40,040 in 2009 to €114,548 in 2017. However, the growth is not driven by insufficient access to finance. Financial constraints can only explain 6% of the forgone dynamic profit in 2009 and as little as 1% for 2017. The number of farms classified as financially constrained in comparison to their peers decreases in our sample from 44% in 2009 to 8% in 2017. This suggests that non-financial factors are driving the growing gap.     

Varianzquotiententests und Random Walk Verhalten internationaler Aktienmärkte

Variance ratio tests can be considered the state-of-the-art methodology for testing stock markets for random walk behavior. This article reviews recent developments in the area. Furthermore, it analyzes whether the recent financial crisis has influenced the random walk behavior of international stock markets. Our findings based on individual and multiple variance ratio tests can be summarized as follows: (i) There appears to be less evidence against the random walk hypothesis in industrialized markets than there is in emerging markets. (ii) Industrialized countries’ stock market behavior seems to be less affected by the financial crisis than the one of emerging markets. (iii) The choice of individual or multiple variance ratio test does not crucially influence our main conclusions.     

Revisiting the democracy-private investment nexus: Does inequality matter?

Contrary to the predictions of a large theoretical literature, recent cross-country evidence suggests autocracies can generate statistically indistinguishable levels of private investment compared to democracies. We argue that the previous exclusion of inequality explains part of this puzzle. We model current investment as a function of investors’ beliefs about future tax rates, which are conditioned by the constraints on the Executive in setting tax rates and expropriating tax revenues. In democracies, where tax rates reflect the preferences of the median voter, investment declines with rising inequality. In autocracies, investor beliefs about future tax rates reflect the relative power of Elites compared to the Executive. As inequality rises, the increased resources available to Elites constrains the Executive’s ability to expropriate more tax revenues. The heterogeneous determinants of investor beliefs can explain the observed pattern of investment across regime types. We first test our predictions at the macro-level with cross-country data. We then test the behavioral underpinnings of our model with a novel laboratory experiment showing how inequality affects individual-level investment behavior dependent upon regime type. Results from both types of analyses show that when inequality is taken into account autocracies can generate similar levels of investment to democracies.