When do the stock market returns to new product preannouncements predict product performance? Empirical evidence from the U.S. automotive industry

Substantial research has examined how stock market reactions to marketing actions affect subsequent marketing decisions. However, prior research provides limited insights into whether abnormal stock returns to a marketing action actually predict the future performance resulting from that action. This study focuses on new product preannouncements (NPPAs) and investigates the relationship between short-term stock market returns to an NPPA and the post-launch new product performance under various industry and firm conditions. Findings based on a dynamic panel data analysis of 208 NPPAs in the U.S. automotive industry between 2001 and 2014 reveal that stock returns associated with an NPPA are not an appropriate forward-looking measure of future product performance. However, under specific conditions (i.e., when the preannouncement is specific, the preannounced new product has low innovativeness, the preannouncing firm has a high reputation and invests heavily in advertising, and the preannouncement environment is less competitive), abnormal stock returns to NPPAs actually predict the future performance of new products. Thus, this study extends the marketing–finance and innovation literature with its focus on the conditions that affect the predictive power of immediate stock returns for the future performance of new products.     

On the Unequal Inequality of Poor Communities

Communities differ in important ways in their needs, capacities,and circumstances. Because central governments are not ableto discern these differences fully, they seek to achieve theirpolicy objectives by relying on decentralized mechanisms thatuse local information. Household and individual characteristicswithin communities can also vary substantially. A growing bodyof theoretical literature suggests that inequality within communitiescan influence policy outcomes in ways that are either harmfulor helpful, depending on the circumstances. Until recently,empirical investigations into the impact of inequality havebeen held back by a lack of systematic evidence on community-levelinequality. This study uses household survey and populationcensus data to estimate per capita consumption inequality withincommunities in three developing economies. It finds that communitiesvary markedly in their degree of inequality. It also shows thatthere should be no presumption that inequality is less severein poor communities. The kind of community-level inequalityestimates generated here can be used in designing and evaluatingdecentralized antipoverty programs.     

Examination of the effects of the relationship marketing orientation on the company performance

The research objective is to examine empirically the relationship marketing and its successful implementation in Turkish Beverage Companies. Three scales were used to generate the data. Relationship marketing scale, environmental factors scale and company performance scale. Some of the variables in questionnaire used as control variables that reflect company-specific characters namely, company size, business type and sales volume. First the main effect of relationship marketing orientation on company performance was assessed, and then the moderating effect of environmental factors on the relationship between relationship marketing orientation and company performance was estimated by using multivariate techniques.     

Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach

Measures of expected inflation from consumer surveys are derived using a modification of the Carlson-Parkin probability approach, which does not assume unbiasedness of expectations, makes use of survey data on expected future as well as perceived past price developments and allows for time varying response thresholds. We apply this method to the normal, central-t and noncentral-t distributions, thereby investigating the effects of nonnormal peakedness and asymmetry. We find that the effects on expected inflation of the former are small and of the latter are substantial, without increasing the accuracy of the expectations, however. Expected and actual inflation show substantial persistence, and, for most of our expectations measures, are cointegrated. Furthermore, the forecast error is stationary, implying weak-form rationality. The co-movement of currently observed expected inflation measures and the unobserved 12-months-ahead inflation rate is of interest for policy makers, for example in the direct inflation targeting strategy. Notwithstanding this, caution is warranted in using them as information variables because the inflation expected by consumers is no causal determinant of actual future inflation.     

The reporting of stigmatizing health conditions: a comparison of proxy and self-reporting.

Previous studies have found that self-respondents tend to report a greater number of health problems than do household proxies. It has not been clear, however, if such results indicate reporting bias or reflect underlying health differences in the self-respondent and household proxy populations. Verification data from a survey of medical providers were examined in conjunction with the results of a national household survey. Our analysis indicates that the use of proxies does not increase misreporting. Overall reporting error between self-respondents and proxy-respondents is comparable on reports of mental illness. When physical stigmatizing conditions are examined, the use of proxies actually appears to be preferable to interviewing respondents directly.     

Reassessing Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

During the past decade, the use of conditional cash transferprograms to increase investment in human capital has generatedconsiderable excitement in both research and policy forums.This article surveys the existing literature, which suggeststhat most conditional cash transfer programs are used for essentiallyone of two purposes: restoring efficiency when externalitiesexist or improving equity by targeting resources to poor households.The programs often meet their stated objectives, but in someinstances there is tension between the efficiency and equityobjectives. The overall impact of a program depends on the gainsand losses associated with each objective.      

Costly external finance,corporate investment,and the subprime mortgage credit crisis

We study the effect of the recent financial crisis on corporate investment. The crisis represents an unexplored negative shock to the supply of external finance for non-financial firms. Corporate investment declines significantly following the onset of the crisis, controlling for firm fixed effects and time-varying measures of investment opportunities. Consistent with a causal effect of a supply shock, the decline is greatest for firms that have low cash reserves or high net short-term debt, are financially constrained, or operate in industries dependent on external finance. To address endogeneity concerns, we measure firms’ financial positions as much as four years prior to the crisis, and confirm that similar results do not follow placebo crises in the summers of 2003–2006. Nor do similar results follow the negative demand shock caused by September 11, 2001. The effects weaken considerably beginning in the third quarter of 2008, when the demand-side effects of the crisis became apparent. Additional analysis suggests an important precautionary savings motive for seemingly excess cash that is generally overlooked in the literature.