Price level convergence and regional Phillips curves in the US and EMU

We use panel estimates of regional Phillips curves of the hybrid New Keynesian type to study price level convergence within the US and EMU. Regional inflation rates tend to eliminate PPP deviations in both monetary unions, with average half-lives around 3½ years. The start of EMU did not greatly affect PPP reversion in the euro area. Where changes in nominal exchange rates accounted for the bulk of the adjustment process before 1999, this role was largely taken over by regional inflation differences since. Notwithstanding clear evidence of forward-lookingness in the US, inflation persistence is substantial in both monetary unions.     

Initial and Long-Run IPO Returns in Central and Eastern Europe

ABSTRACT

This article provides original evidence on IPO underpricing and long-run underperformance in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and compares results to the European Union’s developed capital markets from 2000 to 2009. Using both index-adjusted and CAPM-adjusted returns, we find significant underpricing that is significantly higher than underpricing of comparable IPOs in the European Union’s developed capital markets. We show that the CEE’s initial IPO returns also exhibit significantly higher volatility. In line with the asymmetric information theory, we indicate that smaller IPOs in the CEE region have greater underpricing than the larger IPOs. Contrary to the literature, we unambiguously confirm long-run underperformance toward the benchmarks. In some model specifications, we also find that IPO long-run underperformance in the CEE region is less present than in the European Union’s developed capital markets.     

Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns

As a consequence of optimal investment choices, a firm's assets and growth options change in predictable ways. Using a dynamic model, we show that this imparts predictability to changes in a firm's systematic risk, and its expected return. Simulations show that the model simultaneously reproduces: (i) the time-series relation between the book-to-market ratio and asset returns; (ii) the cross-sectional relation between book-to-market, market value, and return; (iii) contrarian effects at short horizons; (iv) momentum effects at longer horizons; and (v) the inverse relation between interest rates and the market risk premium.     

Probabilistic forecasting of industrial electricity load with regime switching behavior

This paper suggests a novel inhomogeneous Markov switching approach for the probabilistic forecasting of industrial companies’ electricity loads, for which the load switches at random times between production and standby regimes. The model that we propose describes the transitions between the regimes using a hidden Markov chain with time-varying transition probabilities that depend on calendar variables. We model the demand during the production regime using an autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) process with seasonal patterns, whereas we use a much simpler model for the standby regime in order to reduce the complexity. The maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is implemented using a differential evolution algorithm. Using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of our model for probabilistic forecasting, it is shown that this model often outperforms classical additive time series models, as well as homogeneous Markov switching models. We also propose a simple procedure for classifying load profiles into those with and without regime-switching behaviors.     

Club deals in leveraged buyouts

We analyze the pricing and characteristics of club deal leveraged buyouts (LBOs)—those in which two or more private equity partnerships jointly conduct an LBO. Using a comprehensive sample of completed LBOs of U.S. publicly traded targets conducted by prominent private equity firms, we find that target shareholders receive approximately 10% less of pre-bid firm equity value, or roughly 40% lower premiums, in club deals compared to sole-sponsored LBOs. This result is concentrated before 2006 and in target firms with low institutional ownership. These results are robust to controls for target and deal characteristics, including size, Q, measures of risk, and time and industry fixed effects. We find little support for benign motivations for club deals based on capital constraints, diversification motives, or the ability of clubs to obtain favorable debt amounts or prices, but it is possible that the lower pricing of club deals is an inadvertent byproduct of an unobserved benign motivation for club formation.     

Coevolutionary Dynamics of Automotive Competition: Product Innovation,Change, and Marketplace Survival

Innovation and new model development have been paramount in the U.S. automotive industry. The industry has invested around $16–18 billion annually to launch new models and improve existing ones in response to incessant evolution of consumer preferences, competitive pressures, and changes in safety and emission regulations. Although these investments have significantly reduced cycle time and increased efficiency (e.g., through platform communization), it still costs around $1 billion to develop and launch a new model from scratch. Therefore, the strategic focus in the U.S. automotive industry is rapidly shifting away from manufacturing efficiency to product development and innovation as firms engage in an “arms race” to develop innovative new products ahead of the competition. The outcome of this new focus manifests itself in the total development time for a new platform vehicle, which is expected to drop from roughly four years in 1998 to two years in 2014. As development cycles continue to shorten, competition in the industry intensifies, and a new insight is needed to better understand how increased competition can affect the gains from innovations. The need for research to fill this gap is especially critical as executives continue to grow more cynical about returns offered by increases in research and development (R&D) expenditures and see no statistically significant relationship between R&D expenditures and firm performance. This study attempts to address this gap by adopting a coevolutionary perspective that analyzes the relationship between innovations and firm performance by accounting for the impact of competitive forces in the industry. First, this study explicitly models competitive interactions between firms, known in the ecology literature as the Red Queen competition, in which gains from innovations are relative and impermanent. Second, hypotheses are tested using a comprehensive data set comprising all automobile manufacturers ever known to compete in the U.S. automobile market at any time between 1891 and 2000. Complete coverage of 110 years enables precise analysis of the link between innovations and firm performance as well as the coevolution in the U.S. automobile industry. The results suggest that although extensiveness of an innovation is relevant, a firm's ability to keep up with the competition in the innovation arms race is a more significant driver of survival in the market. Thus, firms cannot simply evaluate their innovation efforts in a silo but must constantly assess their efforts versus the innovation launches of their key competitors. Based on the findings, automotive manufacturers must develop a structured product development program that allows for continual and steady new product introductions; otherwise, even momentary setbacks can have a damaging impact on a firm's ability to survive in the automotive marketplace.     

Limited partner performance and the maturing of the private equity industry

We evaluate the performance of limited partners? (LPs?) private equity investments over time. Using a sample of 14,380 investments by 1,852 LPs in 1,250 buyout and venture capital funds started between 1991 and 2006, we find that the superior performance of endowment investors in the 1991–1998 period, documented by prior literature, is mostly due to their greater access to the top-performing venture capital partnerships. In the subsequent 1999–2006 period, endowments no longer outperform, no longer have greater access to funds that are likely to restrict access, and do not make better investment selections than other types of institutional investors. Nevertheless, all investor types? private equity investments continue to outperform public markets on average. We discuss how these results are consistent with the general maturing of the industry, as private equity has transitioned from a niche, poorly understood area to a ubiquitous part of institutional investors? portfolios.     

CONSUMERS' INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND MONETARY POLICY IN EUROPE

This article analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach, I convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into a quantitative time series of inflation expectations. I investigate the effects of unanticipated movements in interest rates and inflation on inflation expectations across European countries. I inter alia seek to explore whether the reaction differs of consumers in countries with more credible central banks than those in less credible countries.     

Local inequality and project choice: Theory and evidence from Ecuador

This paper provides evidence consistent with elite capture of Social Fund investment projects in Ecuador. Exploiting a unique combination of data sets on village-level income distributions, Social Fund project administration, and province-level electoral results, we test a simple model of project choice when local political power is unequally distributed. In accordance with the predictions of the model, poorer villages are more likely to receive projects that provide excludable (private) goods to the poor, such as latrines. Controlling for poverty, more unequal communities are less likely to receive such projects. Consistent with the hypothesis of elite capture, these results are sensitive to the specific measures of inequality and elite power used in the empirical analysis, and are strongest for expenditure shares at the top of the distribution.