Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets

Work on the impact of U.S. monetary policy on emerging financial markets mostly focuses on official target rate announcements; empirical evidence using data on informal communication channels, such as speeches, is scant. Employing a unique data set covering formal and informal communication channels in a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model framework, we provide comprehensive evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy on 17 emerging equity market returns over the period 1998–2009. We find, first, that both monetary policy actions and communications have a significant impact on market returns. Second, target rate change surprises are an important driver of emerging market returns. However, informal communications—particularly when taking into account their higher frequency—have a larger (cumulative) influence on returns than do target rate surprises. Third, during the recent financial crisis, central bank communication played an even more pronounced role. Finally, American emerging markets react more to communications than do non‐American markets.     

Eastern European Public Opinion on Economic Issues:

Abstract Survey data on Eastern Europe is investigated with respect to two major questions: How do people view the creation of a market economy and how do they assess the speed of economic transformation and privatization. These questions are analyzed by looking at the development over 1990 to 1992 and by performing regressions with a number of demographic variables as regressors. Some findings are that the opposition to the creation of a market economy is increasing over time, that in Hungary and Poland people are quite satisfied with the speed of transformation as compared to Czechs and Slovaks, that the Polish are divided over the speed of privatization, and that the relationship between the speed of transformation and privatization is not considered to be very tight by the respondents.     

Zum Problem optimaler Wachstumspfade in mehrsektoralen Modellen

Zusammenfassung Ausgangspunkt bildet ein Produktionsmodell, das durch eine Kombination von zwischensektoraler Prozeßbeschreibung und allgemeinen sektoralen Produktionsfunktionen gewissen empirischen Befunden über input-output-Struktur und Substitutionseffekten theoretisch zu entsprechen versucht. Auf dieser Basis läßt sich eine Reihe von Problemen des optimalen Wachstums (welfaremaximierende Pfade, optimale Beschäftigungspfade, konsummaximierende Pfade) als klassische Variationsprobleme formulieren. Schließlich wurde ein allgemeiner Ausblick auf andere Interpretationen (steuerbare Prozesse) und diesen angemessene Lösungstechniken größerer Leistungsfähigkeit (Maximumprinzip von Pontrjagin) eröffnet.Mit 1 Textabbildung     

The role of measurability in game-theoretic probability

This paper argues that the requirement of measurability (imposed on trading strategies) is indispensable in continuous-time game-theoretic probability. The necessity of the requirement of measurability in measure theory is demonstrated by results such as the Banach–Tarski paradox and is inherited by measure-theoretic probability. The situation in game-theoretic probability turns out to be somewhat similar in that dropping the requirement of measurability allows a trader in a financial security with a non-trivial price path to become infinitely rich while risking only one monetary unit.     

Taylor rules and the Canadian–US equilibrium exchange rate

This paper identifies the Canadian–US equilibrium exchange rate based on a simple structural model of the real exchange rate, in which monetary policy follows a Taylor-rule interest rate reaction function. The exchange rate is explained by relative output and inflation as observable variables, and by unobserved equilibrium rates as well as unobserved transitory components in output and the exchange rate. Using Canadian data over 1974–2009 we jointly estimate the unobserved components and the structural parameters using the Kalman filter and Bayesian technique. We find that Canada's equilibrium exchange rate evolves smoothly and follows a trend depreciation. The transitory component is found to be very persistent but much more volatile than the equilibrium rate, resulting in few but prolonged periods of currency misalignments.     

Chancen und Herausforderungen der Rückversicherung in der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung

In 2009 a so-called morbidity orientated risk structure equalization scheme was installed for the German statutory health insurance in order to minimize structural differences between different providers with respect to revenue and expenditures. Even with this mechanism some risks to the individual health insurance providers remain. Reinsurance could be a way to mitigate these risks, but so far only very few contracts have been signed. Moreover the existing reinsurance contracts only focus on the periphery of the statutory health insurance system such as travel health insurance. In this article we therefore analyse existing risks for individual health insurance providers and evaluate their (re-)insurability. Hereafter the potential for reinsurance solutions in the German statutory health insurance itself as well as in newer forms of healthcare provision (e.g. integrated health care and managed care) is discussed. We find that reinsurance may be a reasonable solution for many of the risks in the statutory health insurance scheme. But as research in this area is very young further analysis of the nature of risks is necessary.     

Progression in Technology Education in New Zealand: Components of Practice as a Way Forward

Understanding and undertaking technological practice is fundamental to student learning in technology education in New Zealand, and the enhancement of student technological literacy. The implementation of technology into New Zealand’s core curriculum has reached the stage where it has become critical that learning programmes are based on student progression to allow for a seamless education in technology from early primary to senior secondary. For this to occur, teachers and students need to focus learning on key features of technology education. This paper is based on research initiated in 2001 which explored the nature of progression of student learning in technology. It draws on findings from research undertaken in New Zealand classrooms in 1999–2000 that resulted in the development of the technology assessment framework (TAF), (as reported in detail Compton & Harwood 2003). The 1999–2001 research was funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Education. Findings from the 2001 research allowed for the identification of key features of technology education that are relevant across all age groups, contexts and technological areas. These key features were collectively termed components of practice. The three components of practice established to date are brief development, planning for practice, and outcome development and evaluation. This paper discusses the development of progression matrices for each of these and provides illustrative examples of student work levelled against the matrix indicators of progression for brief development.