Reflections on the ontological status of risk

In this article we discuss the concept of risk in an ontological perspective. Risk per se is not a self-explaining concept that ‘exists’ by its own virtue. Our discussion is therefore based on existing methodologies and epistemological claims concerning risk. With these claims as our point of departure, we examine risk in relation to the concept of time, state of affairs (the state of the world) and events and discuss relations and constitutional issues for the risk concept. Drawing on a relation between time and state of affairs, we argue that risk is rooted in the transition from the future to the present. Risk is being constituted by the transition from a myriad of future possibilities into one present reality (one actual contingent world). This implies that risk is not ontologically something of the future, but rather something of the present. However, we argue that risk does not exist in any ontological sense. What actually exist are possible (future) states of affairs and these may or may not be interpreted to hold risk. An implication of this is that all risk claims are subjective.     

Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model

We extend the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH) model for daily stock return data with long memory in return volatility of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996) by introducing a possible volatility-in-mean effect. To avoid that the long memory property of volatility carries over to returns, we consider a filtered FIEGARCH-in-mean (FIEGARCH-M) effect in the return equation. The filtering of the volatility-in-mean component thus allows the co-existence of long memory in volatility and short memory in returns. We present an application to the daily CRSP value-weighted cum-dividend stock index return series from 1926 through 2006 which documents the empirical relevance of our model. The volatility-in-mean effect is significant, and the FIEGARCH-M model outperforms the original FIEGARCH model and alternative GARCH-type specifications according to standard criteria.     

Strategic Regulation Policy in the Internet

Some countries are importers while others are exporters of global backbone connectivity. At the same time, input components such as local access are non-traded. This paper analyzes a non-cooperative regulatory game between importing and exporting countries, assuming that the prices of both traded and non-traded inputs can be regulated. We show that exporting countries choose a more restrictive regulation of non-traded goods than importing countries do. We further show that a requirement of international non-discrimination may hurt importing countries, and give firms producing traded inputs incentives to invest in quality degradation.     

The Path to Service Encounter Performance in Public and Private ‘Bureaucracies’

This article examines the evolution of building societies against a background of environmental change. By the application of specific analytical measures developed by Ansoff five distinct periods of change can be isolated. Key events in the environment have become progressively more novel, less predictable and costlier to deal with, which, in turn, has necessitated both operational and strategic redirection.     

Maturing born globals and their acquisitive behaviour

Born globals are becoming more common in our interconnected world. While a body of knowledge exists regarding the establishment and early growth of born globals, we know less about how these companies develop. Arguing that acquiring new knowledge, technologies, and products will enable companies to survive beyond their initial success, the current study specifically aims to explore the value of technology-motivated acquisitions, and their effect on performance. To this end, the study employs a hybrid methodology; statistically studying 108 acquisitions conducted by 45 maturing, technology-based born globals in Israel over a period of 10 years, and further substantiate the findings with an in-depth case analysis of four sample companies. The results indicate that technology-motivated acquisitions are valuable in terms of both financial performance and independent survival, but that there likely exists an optimal threshold, indicating that such a strategy, though beneficial, should be carefully managed.     

House prices,credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: evidence from structural VAR models

This paper investigates the responses of house prices and household credit to monetary policy shocks in Norway, using Bayesian structural VAR models. The analysis indicates that the effect of a monetary policy shock on house prices is large, while the effect on household credit is muted. This is consistent with a relatively small refinancing rate (refinancing rate refers to the share of outstanding mortgages that are refinanced each period due to changes in, for example, house prices or interest rate) of the mortgage stock each quarter. Using monetary policy to guard against financial instability by mitigating property-price movements may prove effective, but trying to mitigate household credit may prove costly in terms of GDP and inflation variation.     

Identifying Earnings Assimilation of Immigrants under Changing Macroeconomic Conditions

Failure to account for differences between immigrants and natives in their responsiveness to changes in macroeconomic conditions may bias estimates of assimilation effects on immigrant earnings. Using Norwegian register data from 1980 to 1996, we first establish that earnings of immigrants from non‐OECD countries exhibit greater sensitivity to local unemployment than do earnings of natives. The empirical analysis further reveals that standard methods of estimation—which fail to consider differential immigrant and native responsiveness—understate earnings growth and overstate cohort differentials among non‐OECD immigrants. These biases are attributable to trends in macroeconomic conditions over the sample period.