Cash Flow Matching

Abstract

We propose a scenario-based optimization framework for solving the cash flow matching problem where the time horizon of the liabilities is longer than the maturities of available bonds and the interest rates are uncertain. Standard interest rate models can be used for scenario generation within this framework. The optimal portfolio is found by minimizing the cost at a specific level of shortfall risk measured by the conditional tail expectation (CTE), also known as conditional valueat-risk (CVaR) or Tail-VaR. The resulting optimization problem is still a linear program (LP) as in the classical cash flow matching approach. This framework can be employed in situations when the classical cash flow matching technique is not applicable.     

The Expected Discounted Penalty at Ruin for a Markov-Modulated Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

Abstract

A Markov-modulated risk process perturbed by diffusion is considered in this paper. In the model the frequencies and distributions of the claims and the variances of the Wiener process are influenced by an external Markovian environment process with a finite number of states. This model is motivated by the flexibility in modeling the claim arrival process, allowing that periods with very frequent arrivals and ones with very few arrivals may alternate. Given the initial surplus and the initial environment state, systems of integro-differential equations for the expected discounted penalty functions at ruin caused by a claim and oscillation are established, respectively; a generalized Lundberg’s equation is also obtained. In the two-state model, the expected discounted penalty functions at ruin due to a claim and oscillation are derived when both claim amount distributions are from the rational family. As an illustration, the explicit results are obtained for the ruin probability when claim sizes are exponentially distributed. A numerical example also is given for the case that two classes of claims are Erlang(2) distributed and of a mixture of two exponentials.     

Modeling Energy and Development: An Evaluation of Models and Concepts

Most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries, focusing primarily on issues that are important in industrialized countries. Evaluation of the results for Asia of the IPCC/SRES models shows that broad concepts of energy and development, the energy ladder and the environmental Kuznets curve, can be observed in the results of the models. However, improvements can be made in modeling the issues that underlie these concepts, like traditional fuels, electrification, economic structural change, income distribution, and informal economies. Given the rapidly growing importance of energy trajectories of developing countries for global sustainability, the challenge for the future is to develop energy models that include all these aspects of energy and development.     

Compound Poisson Model with Covariates

Abstract

Pet insurance in North America continues to be a growing industry. Unlike in Europe, where some countries have as much as 50% of the pet population insured, very few pets in North America are insured. Pricing practices in the past have relied on market share objectives more so than on actual experience. Pricing still continues to be performed on this basis with little consideration for actuarial principles and techniques. Developments of mortality and morbidity models to be used in the pricing model and new product development are essential for pet insurance. This paper examines insurance claims as experienced in the Canadian market. The time-to-event data are investigated using the Cox’s proportional hazards model. The claim number follows a nonhomogenous Poisson process with covariates. The claim size random variable is assumed to follow a lognormal distribution. These two models work well for aggregate claims with covariates. The first three central moments of the aggregate claims for one insured animal, as well as for a block of insured animals, are derived. We illustrate the models using data collected over an eight-year period.     

Modeling politicians' preferences for road pricing policies: A regret-based and utilitarian perspective

This paper presents the results of a stated choice-study among Dutch local politicians in the context of road pricing policies. Politicians were asked to express their preferences for policy-options that differed in terms of (i) emissions reduction, (ii) congestion reduction, (iii) operational costs, (iv) acceptability among the general public and (v) acceptability among retailers. Utility-maximization-based and regret-minimization-based discrete choice models were estimated, and their results compared, on 238 stated choices made by members of Dutch city-councils. The estimated models allow for the evaluation of the popularity of different road pricing scenarios among Dutch local politicians, as a function of their performance in terms of the above-mentioned criteria.     

Conceptualizing sustainable development: An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios

Sustainability science poses severe challenges to classical disciplinary science. To bring the perspectives of diverse disciplines together in a meaningful way, we describe a novel methodology for sustainability assessment of a particular social-ecological system, or country. Starting point is that a sustainability assessment should investigate the ability to continue and develop a desirable way of living vis-à-vis later generations and life elsewhere on the planet. Evidently, people hold different values and beliefs about the way societies sustain quality of life for their members. The first step, therefore, is to analyze people's value orientations and the way in which they interpret sustainability problems i.e. their beliefs. The next step is to translate the resulting worldviews into model-based narratives, i.e. scenarios. The qualitative and quantitative outcomes are then investigated in terms of associated risks and opportunities and robustness of policy options.The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has followed this methodology, using extensive surveys among the Dutch population. In its First Sustainability Outlook (2004), the resulting archetypical worldviews became the basis for four different scenarios for policy analysis, with emphases on the domains of transport, energy and food. The goal of the agency's Sustainability Outlooks is to show that choices are inevitable in policy making for sustainable development, to indicate which positive and negative impacts one can expect of these choices (trade-offs), and to identify options that may be robust under several worldviews. The conceptualization proposed here is both clear and applicable in practical sustainability assessments for policy making.     

Ceo Locus of Control and Small Firm Performance: an Integrative Framework and Empirical Test*

Previous research on the impact of chief executive officer (CEO) locus of control is mainly based on simple and partial mappings of bivariate associations between CEO locus of control and organizational outcomes. In addition, distinct substreams have emerged in which intricately related phenomena are studied separately. to overcome this fragmentation and polarization, we provide and empirically test an integrative framework based on previously tested hypotheses on the impact of CEO locus of control. Our approach differs from prior research in two ways. First, it simultaneously takes account of strategic choice and firm performance in order to assess the extent to which strategy mediates the relationship between CEO locus of control and organizational performance. Second, we consider the CEO to be both a formulator and implementor of organizational strategies. Besides the observation that CEO locus of control seems to matter a lot in terms of explaining organizational performance in the present sample, our results demonstrate that an integrative approach increases our insight into the impact of CEO locus of control by revealing why some CEOs achieve higher organizational performance than others.