中央休闲区:深圳南山中心区的合理定位

目前深圳南山商业文化中心的定位是“南山区中心区”和“深圳次级中央商务区”。这两个定位都是值得商榷的。应该从全深圳乃至珠三角的区域发展战略出发,从南山的优势条件出发,定位为深圳的中央休闲区。应该丢掉CBD的固有思维,重点引进都市文化型的超级文化产业战略投资项目和投资者,把南山商业文化中心真正打造成深圳最具影响力的文化休闲活动中心。     

中国商品房价格长期上行的政策性因素分析

本文从政策学的角度,采用实证分析的方法,剖析了1998～2008年中国商品房价格以及相关变量之间的联动走势和政策性成因。文中提出,商品房价格后期的持续走高背离了市场的真实价值,其政策性原因是对土地总量的行政化控制、以及金融稀缺资源向购房市场的倾斜。本文认为,通过实行土地供应量与房价指数联动机制、以及灵活运用货币政策等组合手段,未来中国商品房价格可能呈现高位窄幅震荡、缓慢上升的趋势。     

面向治理转型的国土空间用途管制制度完善路径探讨

研究目的：明确国土空间用途管制的转型逻辑,探究国土空间用途管制制度完善路径。研究方法：文献梳理法与综合分析法。研究结果：（1）国土空间用途管制属于在地化的空间管制创新模式,是在新的价值理念与治理需求引导下的空间治理转型实践。（2）国土空间用途管制的治理目标是实现国土空间系统性、激励性与高效能管制,其治理逻辑是将国土空间用途管制小闭环嵌入到国土空间治理大闭环之中,实现自然资源部内部治理“小协同”与以自然资源部为核心的多部门治理“大协同”联动。（3）可从构建全域全要素全过程的国土空间用途管制体系、优化系统治理的“三条控制线”划定及管制规则、规范与创新国土空间用途管理政策体系、建立健全多部门权力协同机制以及利益调节机制等方面探索国土空间用途管制完善路径。研究结论：国土空间用途管制涉及多学科交叉、需要理论联系实践,将来研究要加强理论综合支撑顶层设计、关注区域差异鼓励地方创新以及尊重主体利益提高管制效能。     

配送中心配送绩效评价的研究

探讨了配送中心配送活动的绩效评价指标体系和评价方法。从经济效益、企业运作、作业效果、顾客评价四个方面构建了评价指标体系。确定各指标的权重采用群组层次分析法,对指标的评价采用二级模糊综合评判法,将评价的结果转化成一个数值,使评价结果更加准确。     

论投资环境评价的改进

近年来,关于投资环境评价的理论和方法层出不穷,但是,评价体系不完善、评价方法不统一、评价基础不确定等原因使得目前投资环境评价缺乏针对性和适用性,其中评价基础不确定是主要原因。文章认为,投资环境评价的基础是企业,即投资环境评价要面向企业,以企业的经营效果为起点,同时也把企业的经营效果作为终点。     

Financial investor sentiment and the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008

From both theoretical and policy perspectives, it is important to understand if financial speculation contributes to the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008. In this paper, we disentangle the effects of financial speculation from those of economic fundamentals by focusing on exogenous changes of financial speculation in oil markets identified by changes in financial investor sentiment. Furthermore, we focus on a quasi-experiment setting, and investigate both sentiment-driven overvaluation of oil prices and subsequent mispricing correction. Our findings suggest that financial speculation might have contributed to the 2003–2008 boom/bust in oil prices.     

Systemic risk and dynamics of contagion: a duplex inter-bank network

This paper constructs a duplex banking network formed by credit relationships and information interaction via the banks’ balance sheet to model the structure of systemic risk and investigate the dynamic mechanism of contagion in terms of default and liquidity infection along with the factors that affect the extent of the contagion. We systematically explain the role that duplex banking networks play in different aspects of risk contagion. Through theoretical analysis and simulations, we conclude that asymmetric information interaction would increase the inflexibility of the system, which leads to liquidity shortage and possibly the collapse of the whole market. The weakness of systemic risk in the interior of the complex banking system can be characterized by the partial discount factor using illiquid assets in the information network. By improving the connectedness of the information network of the duplex networks, the spread of contagion can be partially slowed.     

Determining the integrated volatility via limit order books with multiple records

The integrated volatility plays an important role in risk management and portfolio selection, the estimation methods regarding the quantity have been widely investigated, either under low-frequency data or high-frequency data, or a combination of both. In this paper, we propose a measure for the integrated volatility via limit order book data with possible presence of multiple records. The estimator is valid under mild conditions and it is easily implemented. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator has been verified by simulation studies and we apply the method to some real high-frequency data-sets as well.     

加强政策事中事后评估的思考

党的十九届四中全会明确提出要强化决策执行、评估、监督,做好政策评估对优化政府职能、推动国家治理体系和能力现代化有积极作用。加强政策运行情况的评估,应从优化评估工作机制、完善和培育评估机构、强化评估结果的应用入手,不断提升评估工作质量,形成适应中国特色社会主义现代化治理体系的事中事后政策评估机制。