Information in stock prices: the case of the 2016 U.S. presidential election

On the day before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, according to political prediction markets, were above 90%. Surprisingly, Donald Trump won the Electoral College handily. In this study, we examine how movements in specific stock prices foreshadowed the eventual outcome. Specifically, we conduct a series of standard event-study tests focused on pharmaceutical companies, which became a focal point during the presidential campaign. Results show that while stocks of pharmaceutical companies significantly underperformed the market prior to the election, prices substantially increased beginning three days before the election outcome. This increase is both statistically significant and economically meaningful and robust to various event-study methodologies. These results suggest that some sectors of the stock market seemed to anticipate the election outcome.     

Examining Tourists’ Push and Pull Travel Motivations and Behavioral Intentions: The Case of British Outbound Tourists to Phuket,Thailand

This research aimed specifically to (1) determine the socio-demographic characteristics and travel patterns of British tourists visiting Phuket; (2) identify the main “push” and “pull” travel motivations of British tourists visiting Phuket; and (3) examine the relationship between British tourists’ main “push/pull” motivations and future travel intention to Phuket. Findings revealed that British tourists’ main push motivations were: “to have fun,” “to rest and relax,” and “to escape from daily routine and environment”; while the main pull motivations were: “natural sceneries and landscapes,” “beaches,” and “hospitality and friendliness of the people.” There was also a relationship found between “push/pull” motivations and future travel intention to Phuket.     

“If I was going to design a chair,the last thing I would look at is a chair”: product analysis and the causes of fixation in students’ design work 11–16 years

Creativity is acknowledged to be important for economic growth and as an everyday life-skill, however several influential reports have suggested that education could do more to harness creative talent. Creative cognition literature suggests the lack of creativity is at least partly the result of ‘fixation’ (difficulty in generating novel ideas due to imagination being ‘structured’ by existing knowledge). This paper focuses on the secondary (students aged 11–16 years) design and technology (D&T) context in the UK. Here we examine whether teacher practice can contribute to fixation by focusing on one specific facet of teacher practice in D&T; the use of product analysis to inform the generation of creative design ideas. Data is drawn from the preliminary phase of a research and intervention project from interviews with D&T teachers (N = 14), students (N = 126) and lesson observations (N = 10) and an analysis of documents and student work. Product analysis is widely used at different points in design projects but, as is shown, in all cases current practice can lead to fixation, as thinking is constrained down specific paths and tasks are at best at procedural rather than comprehension level. The implications of these findings and tentative ways forward for practitioners are discussed.     

THE EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENT ON CAPACITY EXPANSION FOR UNCERTAIN EXPONENTIAL DEMAND WITH LEAD TIMES

We formulate a model of capacity expansion that is relevant to a service provider for whom the cost of capacity shortages would be considerable but difficult to quantify exactly. Due to demand uncertainty and a lead time for adding capacity, not all shortages are avoidable. In addition, technological innovations will reduce the cost of adding capacity but may not be completely predictable. Analytical expressions for the infinite horizon expansion cost and shortages are optimized numerically. Sensitivity analyses allow us to determine the impact of technological change on the optimal timing and sizes of capacity expansions to account for economies of scale, the time value of money and penalties for insufficient capacity.     

Bilateral and Third‐Country Exchange Rate Effects on Multinational Activity

In an earlier paper, we showed that bilateral exchange rates are important determinants of multinational activity of both the US and Japan and that increases in the bilateral and third‐country exchange rates exert opposing effects on bilateral multinational activity. Furthermore, the signs of the exchange rate coefficients differ between Japan and the US. In this paper, we formulate a three‐country model with coexisting exporters and multinational firms that engage in Cournot competition to rationalize these effects. In this model, we identify two counteracting effects which govern the bilateral and third‐country effects of an exchange rate increase on bilateral multinational activity. Our theoretical framework is flexible enough to explain the Japanese as well as the US patterns of exchange rate effects and it allows us to identify those factors that are responsible for the respective differences.     

A Perspective‐Based Understanding of Project Success

Answering the call for alternative approaches to researching project management, we explore the evaluation of project success from a subjectivist perspective. An in‐depth, longitudinal case study of information systems development in a large manufacturing company was used to investigate how various project stakeholders subjectively perceived the project outcome and what evaluation criteria they drew on in doing so. A conceptual framework is developed for understanding and analyzing evaluations of project success, both formal and informal. The framework highlights how different stakeholder perspectives influence the perceived outcome(s) of a project, and how project evaluations may differ between stakeholders and across time.     

Why we hate performance management—And why we should love it

Individual performance is a building block of organizational success. Not surprisingly, virtually all organizations have in place some type of performance management system. Yet, managers and employees are equally skeptical that performance management adds value; usually, it is seen as a waste of time and resources. We argue that the potential benefits of performance management are not realized because most systems focus exclusively on narrow and evaluative aspects such as performance appraisal. Herein, we offer a broader view of performance management, including discussion of how it differs from performance appraisal. We highlight specific and important benefits of performance management for employees, managers, and organizations. We also describe research-based conclusions regarding how performance management systems should be designed and implemented to realize these benefits. We hope our article will demonstrate that well-constructed performance management systems should not be hated, but rather embraced.