Socioeconomic predictors of forest use values in the Peruvian Amazon: A potential tool for biodiversity conservation

Conservation is a crisis discipline requiring rapid action with limited funds. This study examines the potential of socioeconomic variables to predict forest use values. If natural resource use can be predicted from socioeconomic data, conservation planners could rapidly identify and focus conservation programs on the sectors of local populations that most intensively utilize local flora and fauna. Families in three communities in the northern Peruvian Amazon were surveyed over a 6-month period. Data were collected on use of flora and fauna from six locally determined use categories (food, medicine and poisons, wood, weavings, adornments, and “other”) in forest types of three age classes (fallow fields—very young forests, young secondary forests, and old secondary forests). Forest use values were the dependant variables calculated in $/ha/year. Socioeconomic variables included: age, education, family size, residence time, land worked, land owned, number of fishing nets, chickens, pigs, cows, and/or mules owned (all proxies for productive assets), and level of ecological knowledge (ability of informants to correctly identify forest species and answer basic questions about their biology). Ordinary least square multiple regressions were run independently for each forest type. Regressions were also run separately for the two most valuable use categories, food and wood. Low R² adjusted values (all < 0.3) reflect the difficulty in predicting human behavior due to confounding variables and complex interactions. Residence time and a household's community of residence were the most significant predictors of forest use values. Households in Vista Alegre, the community with the highest density of people and smallest landholdings per household, extracted the highest value of forest products per hectare. The longer a family stayed in any community the higher the value of forest goods they extracted. If families that lived in an area longest are the most intensive extractors of forest products, they should be a major focus for conservation programming. In addition, the higher value of products extracted from forests by some families may make them more open to strategies seeking to protect long-term viability of the resources they utilize. The importance of residence time also indicates that planners need to account for changes in the resource use patterns of stakeholders over time.     

如何正确理解和掌握《建筑电气工程施工质量验收规范》

《建筑电气工程施工质量验收规范》GB50303-2002对金属框架、基础型钢及可开启式门的接地(PE)或接零(PEN)作了明确的规定,但在检查中发现做法不统一,要求不一致的现象仍很普遍,本文就其谈几点看法。     

低碳经济下电网企业的管理对策研究

本文从低碳经济的本质出发,分析了低碳经济对电网企业的挑战,并结合电网企业的实际情况提出了一系列的对策和建议,希望能够为电网企业低碳经济的建设提供参考。     

Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.     

城市交通拥堵问题研究综述

从经济学、工程学、管理学三个方面详细综述了交通拥堵问题的成因和对策,最后对交通拥堵研究中存在的问题和未来发展的趋势进行了总结和展望。     

ERP沙盘模拟教学实践研究

ERP沙盘模拟课程开设的主要动因是为了使学生尽量直观地理解和掌握ERP的基础实践知识。本文概述了ERP沙盘模拟课程的教学目标、教学方法和考核机制。重点研究了ERP沙盘模拟教学实践,主要包括实验平台系统及改进、实训课程过程管理要点、六年模拟经营结束后的工作。最后系统归纳总结了ERP沙盘模拟教学效果,其要点是培养并提高了学生的综合管理实践能力、思维能力和创新能力。     

《运动人体科学基础》网络课程的教学设计

网络课程的教学设计是网络课程实践开发的核心。以《运动人体科学基础》网络课程的教学设计为例,对课程的教学目标设计、教学内容设计、学习环境设计、教学策略设计和教学评价设计等各环节进行探讨,为相关课程的网络课程建设提供参考。     

The relevance of personal characteristics in health care rationing: what the Australian public thinks and why

This article examines the preferences of the general public in Australia regarding health care resource allocation. While previous studies have revealed that the public is willing to give priority to particular groups of patients based on their personal characteristics, the present article goes beyond previous efforts in attempting to explain these results. In the present study, there was strong support among respondents for giving “equal priority” to people regardless of their personal characteristics. However, respondents did reveal a preference for married patients over single, for children over adults, for carers of children and the elderly, sole breadwinners, and good community contributors. Further, they would give a lower priority to those perceived as “self-harmers”—smokers, individuals with unhealthy diets, and those who rarely exercise. Variation in the answers according to broad economic and social beliefs across seven different categories (“factors”) influenced the pattern of the public's attitudes towards rationing. The Principal Components Analysis (PCA) indicated that most of the items in our survey are associated with seven factors that explain or capture much of the variation. These relate to a patient's avoidance of self-harm behaviors (Safe Living), their Life Style (diet, exercise, etc.), their contribution to the community through caring for others (Caring), their talents (Gifted), their sexual behavior (Sexuality), their age and marital status (Family), and whether they are an Australian citizen or employed (Citizen). The strength of social preferences—e.g., how strongly respondents would “discriminate” against a recreational drug user or preference a person with a healthy diet—is related to the particular class of preferences.     

结构复杂厚煤层综放开采放煤工艺研究

通过对综放工作面含夹矸结构复杂段顶煤放出特征和放煤工艺的研究,提出选择两刀一放单轮间隔放煤方式,有利于提高煤炭回收率,降低原煤含矸率。