Measuring Integrated Market and Credit Risk in Bank Portfolios: An Application to a Set of Hypothetical Banks Operating in South Africa

The banking crises of the ‘90s emphasize the need to model the connections between financial environment volatility and the potential losses faced by financial institutions resulting from correlated market and credit risks. Due to the number of variables that must be modeled and the complexity of the relationships an analytical solution is not feasible. We present here a numerical solution based on a simulation model that explicitly links changes in the relevant variables that characterize the financial environment and the distribution of possible future bank capital ratios. This forward looking quantitative risk assessment methodology allows banks and regulators to identify potential risks before they materialize and make appropriate adjustments to bank portfolio credit qualities, sector and region concentrations, and capital ratios on a bank by bank basis. It also has the potential to be extended so as to assess the risks of correlated failures among a group of financial institutions (i.e., systemic risk analyses). This model was applied by the authors to the study of the risk profile of the largest South African Banks in the context of the Financial System Stability Assessment program undertaken by the IMF in 1999. In the current study, we apply the model to various hypothetical banks operating in the South African financial environment and assess the correlated market and credit risks associated with business lending, mortgage lending, asset and liability maturity matches, foreign lending and borrowing, and direct equity, real estate, and gold investments. It is shown to produce simulated financial environments (interest rates, exchange rates, equity indices, real estate price indices, commodity prices, and economic indicators) that match closely the assumed parameters, and generate reasonable credit transition probabilities and security prices. As expected, the credit quality and diversification characteristics of the loan portfolio, asset and liability maturity mismatches, and financial environment volatility, are shown to interact to determine bank risk levels. We find that the credit quality of a bank's loan portfolio is the most important risk factor. We also show the risk reduction benefits of diversifying the loan portfolio across various sectors and regions of the economy and the importance of accounting for volatility shocks that occur periodically in emerging economies. Banks with high credit risk and concentrated portfolios are shown to have a high risk of failure during periods of financial stress. Alternatively, banks with lower credit risk and broadly diversified loan portfolios across business and mortgage lending are unlikely to fail even during very volatile periods. Asset and liability maturity mismatches generally increase bank risk levels. However, because credit losses are positively correlated with interest rate increases, banks with high credit risk may reduce overall risk levels by holding liabilities with longer maturities than their assets. Risk assessment methodologies which measure market and credit risk separately do not capture these various interactions and thus misestimate overall risk levels.     

Modeling the day-of-the-week shopping activity and travel patterns

This research develops models that extend existing multi-day analyses of shopping activity patterns. The main hypothesis is that shopping activity choice behavior varies, depending on the day of the week. Using a nested logit model structure, this hypothesis is tested by developing models of daily activity choice behavior for each day of the week. In doing so, household activity choice behavior is represented by three stages, with a shopping activity participation decision as the highest stage, the scheduling decision as the next lower stage, and the number of shopping stops as the lowest stage. Empirical results confirm the nested logit model structure hypothesized in this study. Furthermore, it is found that major distinctions in the daily utility functions take place between the weekday and weekend models. However, differences among weekday models are also observed. This indicates that there appear to be behavioral differences even among weekdays although households are exposed to the same set of temporal constraints.     

Tactical Opportunities,Risk Attitude and Choice of Farming Strategy: an Application of the Distribution Method

When assessing farming strategies, it is important to account for the opportunities provided for tactically adjusting to outcomes of risk. The hypothesis that accounting for tactical adjustment is more important than accounting for risk attitude was supported in this study with regard to identifying the optimal drainage recirculation strategy for an irrigated dairy farm. Failing to account for tactical adjustment would lead to a sub-optimal choice, costing the farmer about A$3 100 in present value terms. In contrast, failing to account for risk aversion would not affect the strategy chosen. The distribution method was found to be well suited to modelling tactical adjustment.     

The market’s view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons

Hall and Miles (1990) suggest an approach of estimating default probabilities of banks using stock market information, and in this paper we apply an aggregated version of their approach to banking sectors around the world in both developed and emerging economies. We study the market’s assessment of the probability of systemic banking crises world wide over the last decade, including the Asian crisis 1997–1998. In addition, we investigate whether there is a relationship between the failure probability and institutional features of the actual banking sector. The quality of governance and the degree of law and order in a country is found to be significantly negatively related to the market based failure probabilities as is an explicit deposit insurance during periods of crisis.     

The Diffusion of Calculative and Collaborative HRM Practices in European Firms

The aim of this paper is to trace and explain variations in calculative and collaborative human resource management (HRM) practices between companies and across national borders. Variations and similarities are explained in terms of the convergence and divergence of HRM practices determined by national institutions, and the increasing influence of multinational companies (MNCs). We explore the diffusion of HRM practices in Europe over time, using data sets from two surveys conducted in several European countries in 1995 and 2000. We use institutional explanations for the development of three selected bundles of HRM practices: individual, calculative performance‐oriented practices; collective incentive schemes for the alignment of interests; and collaborative practices that seek to enhance the commitment of employees. We found substantial effects of country‐specific institutions and of the country of origin of MNCs, which clearly support the institutional duality thesis. Foreign‐owned MNCs, especially those that are US‐based, appear to moderate country‐specific institutional effects on the diffusion of the three HRM bundles.     

Position limits for cash‐settled derivative contracts

Cash settlement of derivative contracts makes them susceptible to manipulation by traders who expect to close large positions upon final settlement. Cash settlement also increases underlying volatility when hedgers unwind their hedges if they have no incentives to control their trading costs. Limits on the positions that traders can carry into final settlement can be used to mitigate associated economic inefficiencies when surveillance is insufficient. This article develops a model that regulators can use to set these limits that is based upon microstructure theory. The empirical findings indicate that existing position limits are largely inconsistent with those suggested by the model. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:945–965, 2005     

China’s Labor Market on Crossroad

I.IntroductionSincethelate1990s,China’slabor market has comeundergreat pressure,asreflected by anincreasing unemployment rate,and adeclining labor force participation rate.The causesofthe severe unemployment are threefold.First,due to the macro-economic downturn andrapid industrial structural change in the late1990s,state-owned enterprises(SOEs),whichlost their comparative advantage and competitiveness,have been unable to fully utilizetheir production capacity,and have become loss-makers.Se…     

Theoretical considerations for a meaningful code of professional ethics

The professions have focused considerable attention on developing codes of conduct. Despite their efforts there is considerable controversy regarding the propriety of professional codes of ethics. Many provisions of professional codes seem to exacerbate disputes between the profession and the public rather than providing a framework that satisfies the public's desire for moral behavior.After examining three professional codes, we divide the provisions of professional codes into those provisions which urge professionals to avoid moral hazard, maintain professional courtesy and serve the public interest. We note that whereas provisions urging the avoidance of moral hazard are uncontroversial, the public is suspicious of provisions protecting professional courtesy. Public interest provisions are controversial when the public and the profession disagree as to what is in the public interest. Based on these observations, we conclude with recommendations regarding the content of professional codes.Karim Jamal is an Associate Professor in the Department of Accounting at the University of Alberta. His research interests are in modelling judgment processes of individuals in professional firms and financial markets. He is currently involved in research on the auditor-client negotiation process, the role of framing effects in masking fraud as well as the means by which frauds are detected, and tensions in professional codes of conduct especially between confidentiality and public disclosure.Norman E. Bowie is the Elmer L. Andersen Chair in Corporate Responsibility at the University of Minnesota. He is the co-editor ofEthical Theory and Business and has published numerous books and articles in business ethics and political philosophy. His most recent book isUniversity Business Partnerships: An Assessment.