Expectation formation and regime switches

Economic agents often have to make decisions in environments affected by regime switches but expectation formation has hardly been explored in this context. We report about a laboratory experiment whose participants judgmentally forecast three time series subject to regime switches. The participants make forecasts without context knowledge and without support from statistical software. Their forecasts are only based on the previous realizations of the time series. Our interest is the explanation of the average forecasts with a simple model, the bounds & likelihood heuristic. In previous studies it was shown that this model can explain average forecasting behavior very well given stable and stationary time series. We find that the forecasts after a structural break are characterized by a higher variance and less accuracy over several periods. Considering this transition phase in the model, the heuristic performs even slightly better than the Rational Expectations Hypothesis.     

Bidding for Firms with Unknown Characteristics

When a region successfully attracts a firm by offering subsidies, the firm often commits itself to performance targets in terms of employment. In this paper, we interpret these firm‐specific targets as a consequence of incomplete information. We analyze a model of two regions that compete for a firm, assuming that the firm's productivity is ex ante unknown. We show that performance targets often induce overemployment in high‐productivity firms, and that tax credits are often superior to lump‐sum payments. Moreover, when regions differ in wage rates, the low‐wage region wins the bid and has a higher surplus than under complete information. Finally, we show that, under incomplete information, bidding might not lead to efficient firm location.     

低碳技术是否能成为新一轮经济增长点?——低碳技术与IT技术对经济增长影响的比较研究

技术进步是经济增长的重要决定因素。本文从投资、有效劳动投入量及生产率这三方面剖析了低碳技术与IT技术对经济增长的不同影响机制,分析了在保持当前技术发展速度的前提下,低碳技术将成为新一轮经济增长点的原因,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

跨国企业薪酬战略选择的影响因素

运用规范分析的方法,从资源依赖的角度分析本土文化和制度、内部资源对跨国公司薪酬战略的影响,提出了跨国薪酬战略应平衡全球标准化和本土化的观点。研究结果表明:跨国公司的薪酬策略必须与整个企业的发展战略保持一致;薪酬本土化和薪酬全球标准化之间的平衡受外部环境中的文化和制度因素的影响;跨国公司在制定薪酬策略时必须充分考虑其内部的资源控制和权力分配。     

国际风险投资之比较及其借鉴探讨

本文通过对美国、欧洲和日本的风险投资与我国的风险投资在资金来源、投资对象、政府作用等方面的发展情况进行了对比分析,进一步探讨国外风险投资的借鉴作用,指出政策法规完善、宽泛的融资渠道、灵活的推出机制以及全方位建立严格的监管体系对促进我国风险投资健康发展起到关键作用.     

Distribution characteristics of China's key cultural relic tourism resources and suggestions to its development and protection

SPSS13.0 was used to process the data of the 1-6 batch of key cultural relic conservation units promulgated by the State Administration of Cultural Heritage of China; and multi-element evaluation method was used to calculate the composite distribution index.The spatial distribution of cultural relics of provinces in China can be divided into four grades,namely：very rich areas,rich areas,poor areas and very poor areas; the article analyzes the characteristics of cultural resources in spatial and temporal distribution.The paper holds that（1）the distribution of China＇s cultural relic tourism resources is relatively concentrated,different sharply from region to region,with more Han nation＇s heritage,less relics of the ethnic minorities; （2） Henan,Hebei,Shaanxi,Shanxi Province are the main regions with heavy distribution of cultural resources; （3） relics appeared in specific time periods in China＇s history.Ming and Qing Dynasties,Sui,Tang and Five Dynasties,Song,Liao and Jin,the Western Han,Shang and Zhou dynasties,the New Stone Age are the major periods producing more cultural relics.This paper also analyzes relationships of the emergence of cultural relics with production technology,specific historical process,specific geographical location,political system,religion,national culture,customs,architectural styles and techniques of the traditional cultural educational system.Finally,the paper discusses the development and protection of heritage.     

我国物流业发展影响因素解释结构模型的构建

在对我国物流产业发展影响因素进行分析的基础上,运用ISM原理,构建了我国物流产业发展影响因素解释结构模型,并进行了系统分析,归纳了我国物流产业发展的主要影响因素,提出了解决这些问题的对策:做好物流宣传工作,使物流观念得到普及;制定统一的物流法规;培养专业的物流人才;加强物流基础设施的建设。     

我国高校图书馆人力资源管理体系建设研究

高校图书馆员是高校图书馆一切活动的主体。加强我国高校图书馆人力资源管理体系建设,是当今社会经济时代、网络信息时代发展的必然要求。本文通过深入剖析现行我国高校图书馆人力资源管理理念缺乏、资源配置自主权缺失、优秀专业馆员缺位、管理制度欠全、高层次人才发展空间欠缺等问题及其成因,为发展我国高校图书馆事业,构建我国高校图书馆人力资源管理体系建设提供理论框架和政策参考。     

论PLC技术在工业控制系统中的应用

可编程控制器简称———PLC是以微处理器为基础,综合了计算机技术、自动控制技术和通讯技术发展而来的一种新型工业控制装置,在工业自动控制系统中发挥着越来越重要的作用。我们可以通过PLC系统结构和原理以及编程语言的介绍来认识PLC。     

湖北固定资产投资可持续性研究

本文从固定资产投资的总量增长、结构优化、效益提升和影响因素几个方面对湖北固定资产投资可持续性问题进行分析。研究结果显示:投资对湖北经济增长的贡献率不断提高,而湖北投资总量增速相对较慢,且缺乏稳定性;投资结构不尽合理,投资的资金来源渠道相对较少,过多地依赖国家预算内资金,投资资金的投向结构与全国整体情况严重趋同,缺乏个性和特色;投资宏观经济效益递减的速度相对高于全国平均水平;政府财政支出增长率是影响湖北固定资产投资的最重要的因素,其次是工业化和城市化水平、经济增长率,利率对投资的影响并不明显。