浅议一般贸易顺差增长及影响因素

近年来,贸易顺差过大和外汇储备增长过快已成为影响我国国际收支平衡的主要矛盾;而一般贸易由逆差转为顺差并呈现较快增长势头,已成为我国贸易顺差的重要组成部分。该文以辽宁为例,在深入调研的基础上,对一般贸易顺差的构成及其影响因素进行了综合分析,并提出了促进一般贸易腱康发展和实现国际收支基本平衡的几点建议,以期对相关政策的调整提供参考。     

完善信息报备机制崔动场外衍生品市场发展

文章在回顾《场外衍生品数据报备和汇总要求报告》（CPSS—IOSCO）的基础上,介绍了交易数据报备机制和报备数据汇总机制建设取得的成果及相关要点,分析了协调各国报备信息库建设步伐存在的难点,提出了对我国建立场外衍生品标准化机制的启示和借鉴。文章认为,我国应在充分参考国际经验的基础上,研究交易报备和数据汇集的方法,参与国际相关标准体系的制定,完善我国交易信息报备机制,推动场外衍生品市场发展。     

我国市场经济的历史起点与发展阶段的选择

国际上市场经济经历了萌芽阶段、初级阶段、发展阶段、发达阶段,各阶段的依据是不同生产力性质、不同生产关系形式以及商品生产和商品交换的不同水平.我国市场经济的历史起点应是三个:一是从计划经济开始向市场经济转化,二是从自然经济向商品经济转化,三是从小商品经济(或简单商品经济)向大商品经济或市场经济转化.我国市场经济发展阶段的战略选择,应该是分类定位和分类发展,采取多层次多样化的市场经济的发展阶段.     

商业银行交叉销售的现状分析与策略建议

新世纪以来,银行、保险、投资等多领域金融产品的交叉销售成为各家金融机构获取客户、服务、扩张和盈利的重要工具。文章分析了当前商业银行交叉销售的现状,指出国内银行业已取得基本确立交叉销售的经营理念和经营模式、初步建立CRM系统为交叉销售提供技术支持等成效,但仍存在市场定位不明、销售手段单一、产品缺少重点等不足。文章从客户策略、产品策略、渠道策略、服务策略、队伍策略、激励策略等方面就推进我国商业银行交叉销售提出建议。     

Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy played an important role in the Asian experience with capital inflows. Central banks used monetary policy to contain the threat of overheating, but the resulting increases in interest rates attracted additional inflows. Empirical measurement of these links shows that tight monetary policy was an important source of inflows to Indonesia and Thailand in recent years, and that the independence of monetary policy decreased during the inflow period.     

Domain‐Relevant Commitment and Individual Technical Innovation Performance

Individual innovators play a critical organizational role in that they generate and often champion technology and product ideas. Amidst an ongoing stream of organizational and team innovation research, few empirical studies focus on differences in individual innovation performance despite the importance of the individual innovator to a firm's innovation efforts. Based on goal commitment theory, we introduce a new domain‐relevant commitment construct and develop a conceptualization of conditional indirect effects. Our model suggests that relevant individual abilities enhance commitment to technical innovation and innovation performance while also insulating against the impact of situational variables, making employees' commitment to innovation performance less dependent upon context. Hypotheses are tested using two sources of data and a sample of 339 R&D professionals from a Fortune 100 industrial firm. Results suggest that commitment to innovation is a key motivational factor in explaining individual technical innovation performance. Situational characteristics impact motivation differently for individuals with lower vs. higher ability levels, even in this context in which truly low‐ability individuals, in the absolute sense, have been screened out by the employment selection process. The relationship between commitment and innovation performance is strengthened by higher levels of individual ability.     

Three US electronic mail studies

In reports published recently by three individual groups charged with the task of studying its future prospects, the US Postal Service is warned that it faces increasing financial deficits and decreasing market acceptance of its services, particularly First Class Mail, unless it takes immediate steps to provide electronic services. The studies, conducted by the National Research Council, the Department of Commerce and the Commission on Postal Service, add more credibility to the viewpoint expressed in previous studies commissioned by the Postal Service that physical transfer of hard copy mail will soon give way to electronic information transfer or, as it is commonly known, ‘electronic mail’.     

2011年上半年债券市场运行报告

2011年上半年,我国货币政策保持稳健,政策累积效应逐步显现。银行间债券市场的主要运行特点是：债券指数受资金面影响呈一波三折的走势,收益率曲线平坦化;除央票发行量下降外,包括政府和各类企业的实际融资需求和融资量仍有显著上升;债券余额小幅增长;回购交易持续活跃;现券交易同比上升,环比下降;利率衍生产品交易规模大幅增长。     

Agricultural Producers and the Environment: A Stated Preference Analysis of Colorado Corn Producers

This paper analyzes Colorado corn producers’ preferences over both private‐ and environmental public‐good production system attributes, and tests the robustness of alternative data reconstruction and estimation techniques. Irrigated corn production practices are characterized by intensive water and chemical use, resulting in nonpoint source pollution to water bodies as well as soil erosion problems. Data from a stated preference survey are employed to analyze key attributes of experimentally configured irrigation systems, proposed as alternatives to current practices. Panel mixed logit estimations (and several alternative fixed parameter specifications) uncover consistently positive preferences for profit, risk reduction, and, importantly, systems with less environmental impact in terms of nitrate leaching and soil erosion. The analysis also finds evidence of preference heterogeneity and a complementary relationship between the two environmental attributes. Analysis of this kind can be used by policy makers to predict behavioral responses associated with introduction of new technologies, or to assess welfare implications of agricultural policy changes and stricter environmental regulations. Dans le présent article, nous avons analysé les préférences des producteurs de maïs du Colorado concernant les attributs des systèmes de production de biens environnementaux publics et privés et avons vérifié la robustesse des techniques de rechange pour la reconstruction et l’estimation des données. Les pratiques de production de maïs irrigué sont caractérisées par l’utilisation intensive d’eau et de produits chimiques qui entraîne une pollution diffuse des plans d’eau ainsi que des problèmes d’érosion du sol. Nous avons utilisé des données tirées d’un sondage sur les préférences déclarées pour analyser les principaux attributs des systèmes d’irrigation expérimentaux proposés comme solutions de rechange aux pratiques actuelles. Les estimations du modèle mixte logit (et plusieurs spécifications de paramètres fixes) ont permis de découvrir des préférences uniformément positives concernant les profits, la réduction des risques et les systèmes ayant moins d’impact environnemental du point de vue du lessivage des nitrates et de l’érosion du sol. L’analyse a également montré l’hétérogénéité des préférences et l’existence d’un lien complémentaire entre les deux attributs environnementaux. Les décideurs pourraient utiliser ce genre d’analyse pour prévoir les réactions comportementales liées à l’introduction de nouvelles technologies ou pour évaluer les répercussions des changements de politique agricole et des règlements environnementaux plus stricts sur le bien‐être.     

Gradualism in Trade Agreements with Asymmetric Countries

This paper uses recursive methods to characterize the payoff frontier of self–enforcing trade agreements between countries of asymmetric size. We show that at points on the frontier where only one country&'s incentive constraint binds, the efficient agreement will be a non–stationary one that starts with a positive trade distortion but eventually reaches free trade. Our analysis illustrates how (i) relative country size, (ii) consumption smoothing incentives, and (iii) sunk investments affect the form of efficient trade agreements. In contrast to previous work on gradualism, our results are obtained from a model in which the economic environment is stationary.