A note on multi-step forecasting with functional coefficient autoregressive models

This paper presents and evaluates alternative methods for multi-step forecasting using univariate and multivariate functional coefficient autoregressive (FCAR) models. The methods include a simple “plug-in” approach, a bootstrap-based approach, and a multi-stage smoothing approach, where the functional coefficients are updated at each step to incorporate information from the time series captured in the previous predictions. The three methods are applied to a series of U.S. GNP and unemployment data to compare performance in practice. We find that the bootstrap-based approach out-performs the other two methods for nonlinear prediction, and that little forecast accuracy is sacrificed using any of the methods if the underlying process is actually linear.     

What Drives the S&P 500 Inclusion Effect? An Analytical Survey

We present an analytical survey of the explanations—price pressure, downward-sloping demand curves, improved liquidity, improved operating performance, and increased investor awareness—for the increase in stock value associated with inclusion in the S&P 500 Index. We find that increased investor awareness is the primary factor behind the cross-section of abnormal announcement returns. We also find some evidence of temporary price pressure around the inclusion date. We find no evidence that long-run downward-sloping demand curves for stocks, anticipated improvements in operating performance, or increased liquidity are related to the cross-section of announcement or inclusion returns.     

Nasdaq and The Chicago Stock Exchange: An Analysis of Multiple Market Trading

We analyze a set of 97 NASD-listed securities that trade on both the Nasdaq and Chicago Stock Exchange (CHX) to determine if trading costs and price improvement differ between the two markets. We find that order execution costs, which we define by the traded spread and the signed effective half-spread, are significantly lower on the CHX. This difference is consistent over trade types and for trades of at least 1,000 shares. Also, we find that trades occurring on the CHX receive more price improvement than do those occurring on Nasdaq.     

THE EFFECT OF THE SEC'S ORDER-HANDLING RULES ON NASDAQ

We study the effect of the implementation of new Securities and Exchange Commission order-handling rules—the Limit Order Display Rule, the Quote Rule, and the Actual Size Rule—on NASDAQ's quoting and trading behavior. We find that the number of reported quotes increases and the bid-ask spread decreases following the implementation of the new rules. The decreased quoted depth associated with placement of individual investors' limit orders—the Limit Order Display Rule—outweighs the increased quoted depth associated with displaying institutional quotes—the Quote Rule. Further, the number of trade executions increases while the average trade size decreases. The volatility of trade-to-trade and midpoint returns decreases for the initial group of stocks subject to the rules, but not for the two subsequent groups.     

Adolescents' utilitarian and hedonic Web consumption behavior: Hierarchical influence of personal values and innovativeness

This study addresses the Web‐consumption behavior of adolescents from a cognitive, hierarchical decision‐making perspective. Using a structural equation analysis technique on data collected from high school students, two a priori domains of Web consumption (utilitarian and hedonic) were confirmed. The utilitarian and hedonic domains of Web consumption were influenced directly by innovativeness and indirectly by the personal values of the adolescents. A theoretical discussion based on the results and the implications of these results are presented for the benefit of youth practitioners, educators, parents, and social marketers. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The forecast for RAC extrapolation: mostly cloudy

The current statutory and regulatory guidance for recovery audit contractor (RAC) extrapolation leaves providers with minimal protection against the process and a limited ability to challenge overpayment demands. Providers not only should understand the statutory and regulatory basis for extrapolation forecast, but also should be able to assess their extrapolation risk and their recourse through regulatory safeguards against contractor error. Providers also should aggressively appeal all incorrect RAC denials to minimize the potential impact of extrapolation.     

Market Power,Industrial Organization and Tradeable Quotas

Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs) wereintroduced into the Mid-Atlantic Surf Clam and OceanQuahog fishery to reduce over-capitalization whileconserving clam populations. Because the number ofoperators in the fishery declined drastically sincethe introduction of this policy, there is concernabout its effect on competitiveness. This paperutilizes Bertrand Pricing Models to show thatmonopoly power is absent from the surf clam andocean quahog markets. Concentration ratios, Lorenzcurves and Gini Coefficients estimated for thefishery for periods before and after ITQintroduction support the results of the Bertrand model.