Guidelines for hazard evaluation procedures: Second edition

This article presents an abstract of important additions and revisions to the Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures published by CCPS in 1985. It includes:

• An outline of the background and purpose of the project
• An overview of the importance of hazard identification and evaluation studies, including benefits and limitations
• An overview of the new chapters
• Discussion of Hazard Identification Methods and results

     

Evolving Aspirations and Cooperation

A 2×2 game is played repeatedly by two satisficing players. The game considered includes the Prisoner's Dilemma, as well as games of coordination and common interest. Each player has anaspirationat each date, and takes an action. The action is switched at the subsequent period only if the achieved payoff falls below aspirations; the switching probability depends on the shortfall. Aspirations are periodically updated according to payoff experience, but are occasionally subject to trembles. For sufficiently slow updating of aspirations and small tremble probability, it is shown that both players must ultimately cooperate most of the time.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers C72, D83.     

Computing median unbiased estimates in macroeconometric models

A stochastic simulation procedure is proposed in this paper for obtaining median unbiased (MU) estimates in macroeconometric models. MU estimates are computed for lagged dependent variable (LDV) coefficients in 18 equations of a macroeconometric model. The 2SLS bias for a coefficient, defined as the difference between the 2SLS estimate and the MU estimate, is on average smaller in absolute value than would be expected from Andrews exact results for an equation with only a constant term, time trend, and LDV. The results also show that in a practical sense the estimated biases are not very large because they have little effect on the overall predictive accuracy of the model and on its multiplier properties.     

The Global Financial Crisis and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: What Have We Learned?

The sharp economic downturn and turmoil in the financial markets, commonly referred to as the “global financial crisis,” has spawned an impressive outpouring of blame. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH)—the idea that competitive financial markets exploit all available information when setting security prices—has been singled out for particular attention. Like all successful theories, the EMH has major limitations, even as it continues to provide the foundation for not only past accomplishment, but future advances in the field of finance. Despite the theory's undoubted limitations, the claim that it is responsible for the current worldwide crisis seems wildly exaggerated. This essay shows the misreading of the theory and logical inconsistencies involved in popular arguments that EMH played a significant role in (1) the formation of the real estate and stock market bubbles, (2) investment practitioners' miscalculation of risks, and (3) the failure of regulators to recognize the bubbles and avert the crisis. At the same time, the author argues that the collapse of Lehman Brothers and other large financial institutions, far from resulting from excessive faith in efficient markets, reflects a failure to heed the lessons of efficient markets. In the author's words, “To me, Lehman's demise conclusively demonstrates that, in a competitive capital market, if you take massive risky positions financed with extraordinary leverage, you are bound to lose big one day—no matter how large and venerable you are.” Finally, behavioral finance, widely considered as challenging and even supplanting efficient markets theory, is viewed in this article as complementing if not reinforcing efficient markets theory. As the author says, “it takes a theory to beat a theory.” Behavioralism, for all its important contributions to finance literature, is described as not a theory but rather “a collection of ideas and results”— one that depends for its existence on the theory of efficient markets.     

Issues in the Design and Reform of Commodity Taxes: Analytical Results and Empirical Evidence

The motivation of this paper is two fold: (a) review the literature on design and reform of commodity taxes, (b) describe attempts at extending the traditional framework. The paper states the principal results in optimal commodity taxation with attention paid to assumptions made in their derivation. Empirical evidence on the structure of optimal commodity taxes is presented with special reference to the issue of uniformity versus selectivity, and the redistributive potential of commodity taxes. The paper, then, provides analytical and empirical evidence on the following extensions to the traditional framework: (i) presence of child subsidy and demographic effects on demand, (ii) fiscal federalism, (iii) tax evasion.     

Employment in the EC,EFTA, and the EEA: A regional analysis

This study examines free trade zones from a regional perspective. These trade agreements are an attempt to create a large functional and administrative region that can improve the competitive position of member countries. With this in mind, techniques commonly used in regional economics can be employed to study the competitive effects of free trade zones. This paper develops the application of shift-share analysis to free trade zones. More specifically, the paper conducts a shift-share analysis of Europe over two time periods to asses the competitive advantages from belonging to the European Common Market.