解析中国投资高增长

近年来中国投资增长迅速,投资占GDP百分比已经超过40%。尽管银行和国有企业改革都取得了很大进步,但是影响投资决策有效性的因素依然存在。制造业、基础设施和房地产推动了固定资产投资。本文的经济计量分析表明,制造业投资与企业流动性(大部分来自于留存收益)显著相关。住宅房地产投资与真实居民收入的增长和真实抵押贷款利率的相关性很弱。这些发现的政策意义是减少企业的流动性,如:要求国有企业向政府支付股利、运用货币政策减少流动性、提高真实利率,以减缓制造业和房地产的投资增速。     

Child Labor, Child Schooling, and Their Interaction with Adult Labor: Empirical Evidence for Peru and Pakistan

Using data from Peru and Pakistan, this article tests two hypotheses:there is a positive association between hours of child laborand poverty, and there is a negative association between childschooling and poverty. Both of these hypotheses are confirmedby the Pakistani data, but not by the Peruvian data. The reductionin poverty rates due to income from children's labor is greaterin Pakistan than in Peru. The nature of interaction betweenadult and child labor markets varies with the gender of thechild and the adult. In Peru rising men's wages significantlyreduce the labor hours of girls, whereas in Pakistan there isa strong complementarity between women's and girls' labor markets.Both data sets agree on the positive role that increasing adulteducation can play in improving child welfare.     

Bank-based versus market-based financial systems: A growth-theoretic analysis

We study bank-based and market-based financial systems in an endogenous growth model. Lending to firms is fraught with moral hazard as owner-managers may reduce investment profitability to enjoy private benefits. Bank monitoring partially resolves the agency problem, while market-finance is more ‘hands-off’. A bank-based or market-based system emerges from firm-financing choices. Neither system is unequivocally better for growth, which crucially depends on the efficiency of financial and legal institutions. But a bank-based system outperforms a market-based one along other dimensions. Investment and per capita income are higher, and income inequality lower, under a bank-based system. Bank-based systems are also more conducive for broad-based industrialization.     

Generalised cost scaling: A new approach to demographic variables in demand analysis

A new approach to modelling equivalence scales and household demand systems is introduced and its usefulness empirically demonstrated. The empirical results suggest that price effects on the general equivalence scale are more important than utility effect.     

An efficient estimator using auxiliary information

The use of ratio and product methods of estimation using auxiliary information for estimating the mean of a finite population is well known.Srivastava [1967] andReddy [1973] proposed ratio-cum-product type estimators. This paper proposes a transformed estimator which is even more efficient than these estimators for a wide range of the value of the correlation coefficient between the main and auxiliary variables.     

Microsimulation of Business Performance

Microsimulation of business performance based on sample survey data is a relatively underdeveloped field, but its application in government economic policy formulation is potentially great since it can be used to measure the distributional effects of change rather than just average change. Techniques which account for the dynamic response of businesses to macro level price expectations have recently been developed (Kokic et al. , 1993). These allow individual level business performance to be forecast from sample survey data. In this paper we outline a general methodology for combining these forecasting techniques with Monte Carlo simulation in order to produce a microsimulation of business performance that accurately captures the true distributional characteristics of the underling survey data. Applying this methodology to Australian farm survey data, we show that these methods may be used to forecast the distribution of farm business production and performance within arbitrary subdomains of the surveyed population conditional on a given set of expected commodity price outcomes. The microsimulations reflect both the uncertainty due to climatic variation from one year to the next, which in the Australian context depends largely on geographic location, as well as the uncertainty of commodity prices.     

Game Theory via Revealed Preferences

We investigate equilibrium notions in game theory from the revealed preference approach. For extensive game forms with complete information, we derive a set of independent necessary and sufficient conditions for the observed outcomes to be rationalized by subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C92.     

Leadership training for managers: An Adlerian approach

Adlerian theory—a social model of human behavior—provides an effective framework to improve managerial practices and enhance organizational leadership. Developed by Alfred Adler (1870–1937), founder of the influential school of individual psychology, Adlerian theory promotes principles of social interest, democracy, and encouragement. These principles may guide leaders in building collaborative, productive workforces through participative management, coaching, and employee engagement. Experiential training exercises that integrate Adlerian principles can help managers expand their interpersonal competencies and increase leadership effectiveness.