Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates

We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in the U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics amongst unemployment rates disaggregated for 7 age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find that demographic adjustments can account for a great deal of secular changes in the unemployment rates, particularly the abrupt increase in the 1970s and 1980s and the subsequent decrease in the last 18 years. First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: June 2001     

Transport Policy and Transport Tax Reform

We are now entering a new phase of transport policy fiscal instruments. Rather than reforming existing measures, the UK and several other countries are moving towards replacing the whole transport taxation regime. This article reviews the ways that car taxation is used internationally to promote fuel economy, cleaner fuels and reduce traffic growth. Fiscal measures to manage traffic growth in the UK have faced political difficulties and, since 2000, have given way to a somewhat random set of policy decisions, together with a shift in focus towards the dominant issue of congestion reduction. An eventual replacement of existing car taxation measures with a new national road user charging regime is now contemplated, but there is a danger that the confusion in purpose that now characterizes transport taxation policy could be carried over to the new regime.     

Macroeconomic announcements, volatility, and interrelationships: An examination of the UK interest rate and equity markets

This study investigates the intraday and daily pricing behavior of UK interest rate and equity index futures contracts. The paper initially examines the response of Short Sterling, Long Gilt, and FTSE100 to the release of scheduled macroeconomic announcements before employing dynamic time series techniques in order to reveal the nature of causal transmission patterns between these variables. In brief, short-term interest rates were found to be highly sensitive to indicators of prevailing economic conditions. However, the release of data important in the formation of inflationary expectations had a relatively subdued impact on long-term rates. Announcement effects appear somewhat ambiguous for the stock market. The analysis also reveals the bid-ask bounce and swift mean reversion in volatility to be important behavioral features of the return-generating process. Whilst the three variables appear to be bound by two cointegrating relationships, the tests for lead/lag relationships produce mixed results.     

Cheap Labor Strategies and Export-Oriented Industrialization: Some Lessons from the Los Angeles/East Asia Apparel Connection

In today's global manufacturing system, production is increasingly dispersed across borders. Particularly noteworthy is the rapid expansion of industrial exports from third world countries, especially the NICs of East Asia. With the entry of the formerly socialist countries of eastern Europe into the global capitalist economy, the dynamics of global economic restructuring are likely to change. This paper focuses on the lessons that can be learned from studying trans-Pacific global commodity chains, drawing out implications for East-Central Europe. In particular, we explore the role of flexibilization, subcontracting and state policy.     

Accounting as a social and institutional practice: perspectives to enrich our understanding of accounting change

In the past two decades, a body of literature has developed which depicts accounting as a social and institutional practice. Researchers adopting this perspective typically demonstrate an appreciation for the pervasive and enabling characteristics of accounting and an awareness of the importance of local, time-specific factors which shape accounting change within particular instances. This work examines this literature and classifies its content using the themes identified by Miller (1994 ). Drawing upon aspects of this literature, the final sections develop a broad, thematic framework to assist researchers in future studies directed at understanding the diverse and complex processes through which changes to the accounting domain can occur.