Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction

Recent developments in nonlinear time series modelling are reviewed. Three main types of nonlinear model are discussed: Markov Switching, Threshold Autoregression and Smooth Transition Autoregression. Classical and Bayesian estimation techniques are described for each model. Parametric tests for nonlinearity are reviewed with examples from the three types of model. Finally forecasting and impulse response analysis is developed.     

Perennial grain crops in the West Soudanian Savanna of Mali: perspectives from agroecology and gendered spaces

Perennial grain crops may play an important role in environmentally sound and socially just food systems for Africa. We study the future possibility of integrating perennial grains into Malian farming systems from the perspective of agroecology, and more specifically using a gendered space approach. We interviewed 72 farmers across the sorghum-growing region of Mali. We found that perennial grains offer a vision for transforming human relations with nature that mirrors the resource sharing of customary land tenure, including patterns of extensive and intensive land use in time and space. Women interviewees identified a broad set of potential advantages and challenges to perennial grain production. Advantages include reduced labour, saving seed, and improving food security. Women farmers were concerned about livestock, water access, and resource limitations. We argue that perennial grains may increase access to land and natural resources for women farmers. Perennial grains may improve soil quality, reduce labour early in the rainy season, and provision more resources from fallow lands. Pastoralists stand to benefit from improved pastures in the dry season. We conclude that investments are needed to develop viable crop types in consideration of the complexity of West African farming systems and the local needs of women farmers and pastoralists.     

FROM EXPERIENCE The Customer's Eye View of Innovation

Currently, "working close to the market" is in vogue. Yet often we ignore the single most important premise of this basic operating philosophy. Donald Potter reminds us that it is essential that our new product development efforts key on the basic principle of lowering our customers' costs. He describes one way to achieve this objective while referencing his study of over 500 corporate strategies. Too often, marketing research investigates customers' reactions to existing products, not future needs. A better approach is to develop a deep understanding of the customers' economics of using a product over its entire lifetime.     

LIABILITY RISK MANAGEMENT AND CORPORATE SOCIAL PERFORMANCE

Reputations travel fast and far. Poor corporate citizenship anywhere in the world is increasingly likely to be reported everywhere in the world. Human rights abuses and environmental accidents and pollution have put many well-known companies on the defensive, and once in the spotlight, all actions tend to be carefully scrutinized.
Corporations risk losses due to fines and lawsuits stemming from poor citizenship, but even more significant is the potential loss of reputation—a significant portion of most companies' value. A damaged corporate reputation can hurt sales and damage employee morale.
The ensuing financial losses expose executives and boards of directors to shareholder derivative lawsuits for not having policies in place to protect the corporation from such scandals. As providers of liability insurance, insurance companies have a direct interest in these losses.
Corporate adoption of effective environmental and social accountability program—which are likely to prevent scandals in the first place, will limit the liability of corporations and their officers if a scandal does occur.     

Cutting-edge technologies

The past 20 years have witnessed a revolution in high-speed rail technologies. More esoteric technologies such as MAGLEV now seem like technological dead-ends. However, there have been failed projects as well as successes, and the management of technological innovation has played a crucial role. The development of high speed trains illustrates the constraints and direction provided by social, political, economic and managerial factors, and their interplay.     

Forecasting the Discounts of Market Prices from Appraised Values for Real Estate Limited Partnerships

A vexing problem for the appraisal industry has been estimating an appropriate discount for the value of real estate limited partnerships (RELPs) relative to their appraised value. This research develops a linear regression model that explains over 80% of the cross-sectional variation in discounts across 60 RELPs using characteristics of each partnership. Among a holdout sample of 41 RELPs, the model provides forecasts of discounts that are superior to assuming no discount or applying a mean discount to all partnerships. Discounts are greatest for RELPs with low current yields, low leverage and high trading ranges for their market prices.     

On the Behavioral Foundations of the Law of Supply and Demand: Human Convergence and Robot Randomness

This research builds on the work of D.K. Gode and Shyam Sunder who demonstrated the existence of a strong relationship between market institutions and the ability of markets to seek equilibrium—even when the agents themselves have limited intelligence and behave with substantial randomness. The question posed is whether or not market institutions account for the operation of the law of supply and demand in markets populated by humans with no role required of human rationality. Are institutions responsible for the operations of the law of supply and demand or are behavioral principles also at work? Experiments with humans and simulations with robots both conducted in conditions in which major institutional and structural aids to convergence were removed, produced clear answers. Human markets converge, while robot markets do not. The structural and institutional features certainly facilitate convergence under conditions of substantial irrationality, but they are not necessary for convergence in markets in which agents have the rationality of humans.     

Chapter 11: Strategic advantage and social anathema?

The United States is at a crossroad in its treatment of Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code, which deals with reorganization of bankrupt organizations. It is vital that the issues surrounding the debate be properly framed. This paper attempts to do just that by reviewing the evolution of bankruptcy law, assessing the impact of Chapter 11 leniency on societal stakeholders, considering bankruptcy as a strategic option, and addressing the ethical and societal issues that arise from the use of Chapter 11 to avoid massive litigation or to abrogate labor contracts. Serious threats to the underlying fibers of the American system of enterprise are exposed and an assessment of these threats is offered.Brad Johnson is a consultant with FLR Health Resources, Dallas, Texas. His recent research has addressed health care strategic management, societal consequences of health care systems changes, and competitiveness of NFP organizations. B. R. Baliga is Assistant Professor in Business Policy and International Business at the College of Business Administration at Texas Tech University. He has written two books on Strategies of Multinational Corporations and several articles, which have appeared in Strategic Management Journaland Journal of International Business Studies. John D. Blair is Associate Professor of Management at the College of Business Administration at Texas Tech University. He is also Associate Professor of Health Organization and Management at the School of Medicine at Texas Tech University. He has written two coauthored books: The All-Volunteer Force: A Study of Ideology in the Military(University of Michican Press, 1977) and Leadership on the Future Battlefield(Pergamon Press, 1984).