Accounting for output fluctuations in manufacturing

There is a substantial body of evidence to the effect that output is more volatile than sales among manufacturing industries. Numerous explanations have been advanced to account for this excess output volatility. Some examples are pro-cyclical inventory movements induced by a stockout-avoidance motive, cost and technology shocks and decreasing marginal costs. This article assesses the contribution of these different motives to output volatility for six different manufacturing industries. Linear–quadratic models are estimated for each of the industries and then dynamic simulations are employed to determine the volatility of output when one or more of the factors are removed from the model. Technology shocks provide the most significant contribution to output volatility. The stockout-avoidance motive is also important. Cost shocks provide a very small contribution and marginal production costs are increasing at the margin and thus stabilize output. It is also shown that output volatility declines when current values of sales and material costs are assumed known rather than forecasted from prior periods’ values.     

Exploring the Effects of Heritage Site Image on Souvenir Shopping Attitudes: The Moderating Role of Perceived Cultural Difference

Although tourism image and souvenir shopping play critical roles in travel decisions and tourist behaviors, little is known about the relationship between them. This article seeks to address two deficits in the literature by presenting (1) the linkage between tourism image and souvenir shopping and (2) the direct and moderating effects of perceived cultural difference. Using the data drawn from UNESCO heritage sites, the authors first validated a second-order construct of heritage site image, then tested the effects of this construct and perceived cultural difference on tourists’ attitudes toward souvenir shopping in two structural models. The uncovered direct and moderated results offer important implications for tourism and hospitality theories and practice.     

Classroom Response Systems and Student Performance Improvement: Local Versus International Students

The clicker is one of the most popular mobile classroom response systems. A number of studies reported that clickers could effectively encourage students to participate in class. However, most of them are not talking about Chinese students and their finding seldom reported the difference in perception between Chinese and international students on using the mobile classroom response system in learning. They seldom examine the issue of cultural differences on the application of these learning management systems. The study can fill in the gap to collect their perception on using clickers in Hong Kong. The result shows that both Chinese and international students are keen on using clickers in class. The clicker is found to be able to advance learning efficacy and raise student participation in class.     

Driven by distraction: investigating the effects of anxiety on driving performance using the Attentional Control Theory

This study investigates the effects of trait anxiety on self-reported driving behaviours through its negative impacts on Central Executive functions. Following a self-report study that found trait anxiety to be significantly related to driving behaviours, the present study extended the predictions of Eysenck and Calvo’s Attentional Control Theory, proposing that anxiety affects driving behaviours, in particular driving lapses, through its impact across the Central Executive. Seventy-five Australian drivers participated in the study, completing the Parametric Go/No-Go and n-back tasks, as well as the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire. While both trait anxiety and processing efficiency of the Central Executive was found to significantly predict driving lapses, trait anxiety remained a strong predictor of driving lapses after processing efficiency was controlled for. It is concluded that while processing efficiency of the central Executive is a key determinant of driving lapses, another Central Executive function that is closer to the driving lapses in the trait anxiety – driving lapses relationship may be needed. Suggestions regarding how to improve future trait anxiety – driving behaviours research are discussed.     

Estimation of multiple period expected shortfall and median shortfall for risk management

With the regulatory requirements for risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) has become an essential tool in determining capital reserves to protect the risk induced by adverse market movements. The fact that VaR is not coherent has motivated the industry to explore alternative risk measures such as expected shortfall. The first objective of this paper is to propose statistical methods for estimating multiple-period expected shortfall under GARCH models. In addition to the expected shortfall, we investigate a new tool called median shortfall to measure risk. The second objective of this paper is to develop backtesting methods for assessing the performance of expected shortfall and median shortfall estimators from statistical and financial perspectives. By applying our expected shortfall estimators and other existing approaches to seven international markets, we demonstrate the superiority of our methods with respect to statistical and practical evaluations. Our expected shortfall estimators likely provide an unbiased reference for setting the minimum capital required for safeguarding against expected loss.     

The earnings announcement premium around the globe

U.S. stocks have been shown to earn higher returns during earnings announcement months than during non-announcement months. We document that this earnings announcement premium exists across the globe. Moreover, it is not isolated to a few countries. Of the 20 countries with enough data to conduct a within-country analysis, nine exhibit a significantly positive premium. A cross-country analysis finds that the premium is strongest in countries with the greatest increase in idiosyncratic volatility around the time of their firms' earnings announcements, suggesting that uncertainty over the earnings information to be disclosed is a primary driver of the global announcement premium.     

Stochastic dominance analysis of CTA funds

In this paper, we employ the stochastic dominance (SD) approach to rank the performance of commodity trading advisors (CTA) funds. An advantage of this approach is that it alleviates the problems that can arise if CTA returns are not normally distributed by utilizing the entire returns distribution. We find both first-order and higher-order SD relationships amongst the CTA funds and conclude that investors are better off investing in the first-order dominant funds to maximize their expected utilities and expected wealth. However, for higher-order dominant CTAs, risk-averse investors can maximize their expected utilities but not their expected wealth. In addition to the advantages of the SD approach in the case of non-normal returns, the paper concludes that the approach is more appropriate compared with traditional approaches as a filter in the CTA selection process as it provides meaningful economic interpretation of the results.