The Quiet Period Goes out with a Bang

We examine the expiration of the IPO quiet period, which occurs after the 25^th calendar day following the offering. For IPOs during 1996 to 2000, we find that analyst coverage is initiated immediately for 76 percent of these firms, almost always with a favorable rating. Initiated firms experience a five-day abnormal return of 4.1 percent versus 0.1 percent for firms with no coverage. The abnormal returns are concentrated in the days just before the quiet period expires. Abnormal returns are much larger when coverage is initiated by multiple analysts. It does not matter whether a recommendation comes from the lead underwriter or not.     

VOLUME AND R2: A FIRST LOOK

Roll (1988) reports that when days on which public announcements occur are excluded from a regression of stock returns on market returns, the R²s are largely unaffected. To explain his findings, Roll suggests that much of the firm-specific movements in common stocks may be a result of private information or occasional trading frenzy. As a test of Roll's conjecture, volume is used in this study as a proxy to capture the impact of firm-specific information and irrational trading. If Roll's conjecture is correct, the R² should rise when high-volume days are excluded from a regression of stock returns on market returns. The results presented here are consistent with that prediction, but they are not strong.     

Do Demand Curves for Small Stocks Slope Down?

Stocks added to the S&P 500 generally experience positive abnormal returns following the announcement. Several competing explanations exist for this reaction, but small sample sizes and other issues make it difficult to distinguish among them. We examine this subject using the small‐cap Russell 2000 index, which has several advantages over the S&P 500 in this context. Our primary finding is that stocks added to or deleted from the Russell 2000 experience significant changes in stock price and trading volume, but the effect is transitory. The results support the price pressure hypothesis.     

Entry, Expansion, and Intensity in the US Export Boom, 1987–1992

US exports grew at 10.3% per year from 1987 to 1992, far faster than the economy as a whole. This paper examines sources of the manufacturing export boom, including entry, firm expansion, and export intensity. Most of the increase in exports came from increasing export intensity at existing exporters rather than from new entry into exporting. The small role of entry relative to export intensity offers support for the importance of sunk costs in the export market. Changes in exchange rates and rises in foreign income drove most of the export increase, while plant productivity increases played a smaller role.     

The Potential Impact of Tobacco Biopharming: The Case of Human Serum Albumin

Biopharming stands to significantly expand the uses of many agricultural crops. This article examines the potential size and distribution of welfare gains from biopharming transgenic tobacco as a source of human serum albumin (HSA) using an economic surplus model under imperfect competition. The results suggest that HSA from transgenic tobacco will generate annual profits for the innovating firm of between $25 million and $49 million. On the other hand, consumers are unlikely to benefit during the patent life of the product given the innovator's market power.     

ESG preferences,risk and return

There are two primary factors that affect expected returns for companies with high ESG (environmental, social and governance) ratings—investor preferences and risk. Although investor preferences for highly rated ESG companies can lower the cost of capital, the flip side of the coin is lower expected returns for investors. Regarding risk, the jury remains out on whether there is an ESG-related risk factor. However, to the extent, ESG is a risk factor it also points towards lower expected returns for investments in highly rated companies. Though ESG investing may have social benefits, higher expected returns for investors are not among them.     

Promoting Vegetarianism through Moralization and Knowledge Calibration

This research extends the theories of moralization and knowledge calibration to vegetarianism. In two studies involving interviews with vegetarians, and meat-eaters; we investigated consumer attitudes toward vegetarianism. Our text analysis results revealed that emotionally calibrated consumers are ‘moral vegetarians’ who find meat repulsive, and make ethical food choices. In contrast, cognitively calibrated consumers are ‘health vegetarians’ who scan the nutrition information, avoid meat due to health restrictions, and embrace vegetarianism for healthy life. Finally, we provided insights into how faux meat companies can promote their products and transform consumer behavior toward vegetarianism by advertising ethical and environmentally friendly foods, and healthy and anti-obesity foods to moral and health vegetarians, respectively.     

Does venture capitalist activism improve investment performance?

We investigate whether venture capitalist (VC) activism is associated with higher investment returns. Advising portfolio firms is time consuming and creates tradeoffs between intensity of VC activism and portfolio size. As the number of assisted firms expands, advice can be stretched too thin, reducing portfolio company prospects. We test the hypothesis that increasing the number of investments while intensely assisting portfolio companies is negatively associated with investment returns (the profit destruction effect). We find that aggressive VC activism does predict higher investment returns, but the profit destruction effect operates as well. Portfolio size growth thus risks overextending scarce VC resources and lowering returns.     

INFLATION MEASUREMENT,INFLATION RISK,AND THE PRICING OF TREASURY BILLS

One explanation for the high real interest rates on Treasury bills during the period from 1980 to 1985 is that the risk premium had risen. A procedure for testing this hypothesis is to apply the Black version of the capital asset pricing model to real Treasury bill returns. This paper examines that procedure in detail. The main conclusion is that nonstationarity and measurement error, which are always impediments to empirical implementation of the CAPM, are particularly difficult to handle when estimating changes in Treasury bill risk premiums. Furthermore, the behavior of the premium depends on the index used to measure inflation.     

Balance on unbalanced growth

Conclusions In his paper Baumol raised a number of important issues. Included are several knotty problems of an empirical nature: Can measures of outputs which we normally classify as services be reasonably divorced from measurement of the inputs of labor involved in their provision? Can commodities be satisfactorily divided into two classes: those for which the technology of production is inherently stagnant, and those for which technological progress is possible? It should be clear that in this paper no attempt has been made to address these or any other factual questions.What has been attempted is a demonstration that, on their own grounds, Baumol's rather pessimistic propositions about the behavior of an economy undergoing unbalanced productivity change can be balanced by rather more positive ones. Furthermore, those grounds have themselves been questioned: It has been argued that few normative implications can be drawn from the movement of relative prices, especially in the one-factor world used illustratively by Baumol, that a balanced expansion path is unlikely to be desired in such a world, and that little significance can be attached to changes in a real output index in this context. Finally, it has been shown that assuming a one-factor world results in hiding some of the important possibilities (for relative commodity and factor price behavior) under unbalanced growth. In particular, with not very unlikely sorts of factor complementarity, two of Baumol's propositions no longer hold.With 6 FiguresThe author is assistant professor of economics at Princeton University. He wishes to thank the Brookings Institution and the Ford Foundation for financial support which facilitated the writing of this paper, and to acknowledge helpful discussions with colleagues William J. Baumol, Richard R. Cornwall and Dennis E. Smallwood.