The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions

We consider whether disaggregated data enhance the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean squared error from a univariate aggregate model by 70% at a two-year horizon.     

AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF EXPERIENCES WITH MONETARY TARGETING: A REACTION FUNCTION APPROACH

Monetary targets have been instituted in major countries for nearly a decade. There has been a rather wide variety of experience with them, both in the control procedures and in the success with which targets have been achieved. This paper presents results of a reaction function investigation into the extent to which elements of discretionary monetary policy remained even under targeting. Generally, targets probably were successful in focusing central bank attention on the long run. But a conclusion here is that distinguishable elements of discretion (as opposed to rule), evidenced by movements in targeted aggregates themselves, were present for several countries, including the United States.     

The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience

This paper studies the introduction of an exchange rate between Ireland and the UK in 1979 to shed light on the effects of a common currency on the composition of international trade. No evidence is found from time series or panel regressions that the change of exchange rate regime had a significant effect on Anglo-Irish trade. This finding is consistent with previous studies of currency unions between larger, developed countries but conflicts with findings based on more heterogeneous country groupings. The reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

我的九条命

第三章留学生涯 在伦敦物色住所易于初料。每天的报纸上有不少出租广告,到市内任何地点,只要凭一纸地图和地铁指南便可按图索骥。冯先生和我将目标集中在房租比较低廉的区域里。在郊区Ｃｌａｐｈａｍ很快便找到了一家工人阶级的住所,两层楼内,除了夫妇两人和一个十多岁的女儿自用的房间外,有两间空房出租。我和房东谈判时立即发现我对“Ｃｌａｐｈａｍ”的发音错了,但抱怨英语的发音和拼写为什么不相配合,有个ｈ却不发音。我们决定冯先生住在面对街道较大的一间,我住在较小的面向内院的房间里。他每周租金３０先令;包括早晚两餐,…     

The winner-loser anomaly: recent evidence from Greece

This article finds evidence of significant reversals in returns over the medium term in Greek stocks. In contrast with previous research, return reversals are more pronounced for past winners, suggesting that the market overreacts to a greater extent to good news. These contrarian returns are particularly elevated when portfolios are formed using quartiles and during tranquil and bull markets. The optimum contrarian strategy involves skipping the first 6 months of the holding period and implementing the contrarian strategy for a period of 18 months, as returns exhibit continuation followed by reversal. The profitability of the contrarian investment strategy is robust to adjustments for risk and seasonalities. It is the tranquil times and not the crisis/volatile times that generates a significant and profitable contrarian strategy. The recent credit crisis and resulting stock market falls, resulted in extreme movements in some Greek stocks and testing of the contrarian strategy problematic, especially when portfolios are decile ordered. Our findings also highlight the importance of survivorship bias and also suggest that contrarian strategies that just use market beta may be ill-equipped to take into consider extreme market movements, illiquidity and short-sales constraints.