The next tick on Nasdaq

The Nasdaq stock market provides information about buying and selling interest in its limit order book. Using a vector autoregressive model of trades and returns, I assess the effect of the entire order book on the next tick. I also determine the influence of individual market makers and electronic networks and find evidence that the identity of market participants can be useful information. Finally, I produce a set of dynamic market price responses to buy and sell orders, and I find that these estimates vary with standard measures of liquidity.     

Insider trading,growth opportunities and the market reaction to new financing announcements*

Abstract

This paper explores the profitability of momentum strategies, by investigating if a momentum strategy is superior to a benchmark model once the effects of data-snooping have been accounted for. Two data sets are considered. The first set of data consists of US stocks and the second one consists of Swedish stocks. For the US data strong evidence is found of a momentum effect and hence the hypothesis of weak market efficiency is rejected. Splitting the sample in two parts, it is found that the overall significance is driven by events in the earlier part of the sample. The results for the Swedish data indicate that momentum strategies based on individual stocks generate significant profits. A very weak or no momentum effect can be found when stocks are sorted into portfolios. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, results show that data-snooping bias can be very substantial. Neglecting the problem would lead to very different conclusions.     

Return enhancement trading strategies for size based portfolios

Recent theoretical work suggests that definitions of market efficiency that allow for the possibility of time-varying risk-premia will generally lead to return sign predictability. Consistent with this theory, we show that a logit model based on the lagged value of the market risk premium is useful for successfully predicting the return sign for CRSP small decile portfolio returns, but not large ones. We additionally employ this model in market timing simulations of micro-cap mutual funds in which investment can actually be made. The results indicate that a market-timing strategy based on our return-sign forecasting model outperforms a buy-and-hold strategy for 13 of 14 micro-cap funds studied. On average, the buy-and-hold strategy produces an average compound return of 11.98% per annum versus an average of 16.60% for the market-timing strategy. Nevertheless, trading restrictions make the return-sign forecasting model more practical to employ by the micro-cap fund portfolio manager rather than the individual fund investor.

Are college students at greater risk of credit card abuse? Age,gender, materialism and parental influence on consumer response to credit cards

Two studies examine age, gender, parental influence and materialism effects on consumers’ credit card attitudes and behavior. Credit card commitment and use are greater among older adults than college students. Women outperform men in managing balances. Materialism heightens commitment, trust and use, but interferes with outstanding balance management. Parental influence can improve students’ commitment, trust, use and balance management while discouraging overuse. Parental influence also mediates materialism's effect on trust and balance management. Overall, findings show college students are not more vulnerable than older adults to credit card abuse, but that students who are female, materialistic and with less parental influence are at more risk.     

Investment in organization capital

We study a firm’s investment in organization capital by analyzing a dynamic model of language development and intrafirm communication. We show that firms with richer internal language (i.e., more organization capital) have lower employee turnover, and higher diversity in skill and wages among incumbents who are promoted from within the firm. Our results also suggest that firms in rapidly changing industries are less likely to invest in organization capital, and are more likely to have high managerial turnover. Finally, our model shows that employment protection regulations lead to more investment in organization capital but less innovation.     

Stock returns and the Miller Modigliani valuation formula: Revisiting the Fama French analysis

Fama and French (2006) use the dividend-discount model to develop the role of expected profitability, expected investment, and the book-to-market ratio as predictors of stock returns. One reported empirical result is anomalous. The valuation model establishes that the comparative static relation between expected returns and expected investment is negative, yet it appears to be positive and insignificant. We show that the posited valuation relations apply at the firm level, and not at the per share level at which they were tested. Once the variables are measured at the firm level, all the Fama French predictions are validated.     

Small firms and the value of improvements in corporate governance mechanisms

Since 2002, many firms have been required to alter their board of directors and committees to increase management monitoring. Kinney and McDaniel (1989) and Chhaochharia and Grinstein (2007) provide empirical evidence suggesting that investments in corporate governance may differ based on firm size, and that under-investing in monitoring may be more pronounced in smaller firms. To further test whether the benefits of recent changes in companies' governance mechanisms accrue to smaller firms that have underinvested in governance, we examine the stock market reaction to changes in board structure over the twenty-four months following the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act. We construct a new composite measure of board structure and regress buy-and-hold abnormal returns on changes that occur in the Board Structure Index, finding that improvements in corporate governance quality result in economically significant abnormal returns accruing only to the smaller firms with weak initial board structures.     

Modelling Performance Improvement and Switching Behaviour in Team Learning

Accounting educators and agencies have sought to incorporate team learning activities into conventional learning methods. The readiness-assurance process (RAP) of team learning, in which students take quizzes first as individuals and second as members of student teams, has been shown to be effective in this regard. We analyse the RAP with a fixed-effects regression model to identify the factors that contribute to performance improvement and we use ordered logit regression to estimate, probabilistically, switching behaviour within student teams. A longitudinal study was conducted over the course of a semester in which 101 undergraduate accounting students, comprising 22 teams, completed six quizzes. Within-team knowledge disparity was shown to be a significant indicator of performance improvement, and individuals appeared more likely to switch their answers after the first quiz. There were no significant effects for either performance or switching associated with demographic measures of sex and English fluency. Implications for accounting educators are discussed.     

A Model for Analyzing the Impact of Selective Lapsation on Mortality

Abstract

This paper presents a model for examining the effect of various relationships between mortality rates and lapse rates on the mortality experience of a cohort of insured lives. The approach is individual rather than the aggregate traditionally used in analyzing selective lapsation. The model assumes that insured lives are healthy at policy issue, but later may move to an impaired state from which the lapse rate is zero. Associated with each insured is an unobservable “risk level” random variable, which reflects the heterogeneity of the insured group. Individual mortality and lapse rates are functions of the risk level. A numerical illustration provides some interesting results obtained by using this model.