A de Finetti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo type integral representation theorem for generalized means on masses

We point out that the Consistency, Continuity and Associativity properties of an extended realvalued functionalm on masses are the basic notions to get a de Finetti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo type integral representation ofm.

---

Riassunto Come è noto il teorema di de Finetti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo formisce una rappresentazione integrale di particolari funzionali reali, detti medie, definiti per funzioni di ripartizione che distribuiscono l'intera massa su un prefissato intervallo chiuso e limitato dell'asse reale.Nel lavoro [2] gli autori hanno esteso la nozionc di media, considerata ancora come funzionale reale, dalle funzioni di ripartizione alle masse (misure finitamente additive limitate e non negative). In questo modo, estendendo ad essa le usuali proprictà (internalità, associatività, etc.), sono riusciti a provare un teorema di rappresentazione integrale analogo a quello di de Finctti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo per medie continue ed associative definite su opportuni insiemi di masse tight (cio prive di masse aderenti a – e+).In questo lavoro, naturale prosccuzione del preccedente, si prendono invecc in considerazione medic generalizzate (cioè medie che possono assumere valori reali oppure anche i valori – c+) e masse non neccssariamente tight. Si fa allora vedere che le nozioni di consistenza, continuità e associatività per un funzionale a valori nella retta compatta e definito sulle masse non nulle, sono condizioni caratteristiche per ottencre una sua rappresentazione integrale del tipo de Finctti-Kolmogoroff-Nagumo. Si prova inoltre che, a differenza della media ariumetica, le medic generalizzate continue ed associative possono assumere valori non reali solamente su opportune masse non tight.

---

---

Work performed under the auspices of the National Group for Sthocastic Models and Mathematical Statistics (M.R.S.T. 40%) and G.N.A.F.A. of C.N.R.     

Canadian and American Reactions to Drug and Alcohol Testing Programs in the Workplace

We investigated U.S. and Canadian reactions to workplace drug and alcohol testing programs. Canadian truck drivers (n = 183) deemed drug and alcohol testing policies less fair, and were less accepting of these policies, than their American counterparts (n = 153). We also compared the perspectives of recipients versus third-party observers with regard to their reactions to a drug testing program. Unlike the pattern observed among American observers, the responses by Canadian observers were highly similar to those of the recipients. Canadian observers were more inclined to file a formal protest regarding the implementation of a drug and alcohol testing program than were U.S. observers. The results also showed that procedural and interactional justice principles contributed to the program's fairness, acceptance, and lower levels of protest intentions in both Canada and the United States. We propose that scholars and practitioners can gain a better understanding of multinational reactions to drug and alcohol testing by considering not only cultural but also historical, social, political, and other environmental factors that can shape reactions to personnel practices.     

Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data: Adding polls to a structural forecasting model

Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s vote share usually a few months in advance. Some political scientists contend that adding vote intention polls to these models—i.e., synthesizing ‘fundamental’ variables and polling information—can lead to important accuracy gains. In this paper, we look at the efficiency of different model specifications in predicting the Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 2015. We find that vote intention polls only allow modest accuracy gains late in the campaign. With this backdrop in mind, we then use different model specifications to make ex ante forecasts of the 2019 federal election. Our findings have a number of important implications for the forecasting discipline in Canada as they address the benefits of combining polls and ‘fundamental’ variables to predict election results; the efficiency of varying lag structures; and the issue of translating votes into seats.     

Adaptability, productivity, and educational incentives in a matching model

We study the connections between the labour market and the education sector in a matching framework with ex-post wage bargaining. Workers have multidimensional skills and the search market is segmented by technology. Education is a time-consuming activity and determines jointly the scope - or adaptability - and intensity - or productivity - of individual skills. We establish three main results. First, unemployment provides incentives to schooling by raising the need for adaptability. Second, private returns to productivity are below social returns, but no hold-up phenomenon is involved. Third, due to wage and congestion externalities, private returns to adaptability exceed social returns. As a consequence, both over- and under-education may take place in equilibrium.     

The hidden value of air transportation infrastructure

Air transportation is a key strategic asset in that it provides access to markets and thereby enables the economic development of nations. Thus, in order to maintain their competitiveness in a global economy, countries must invest in air transportation infrastructure to ensure their ability to meet current and future demand for aviation services. The objective of this paper is to develop and illustrate a methodology for evaluating the strategic value of air transportation infrastructure, in particular the benefits associated with the ability to react quickly to changes in the market. The hypothesis is that by recognizing and taking advantage of this strategic value, it may be possible to design better policies for aviation infrastructure delivery.The methodology developed here uses system dynamics to model different strategies for infrastructure delivery. These strategies are defined by three variables: the amount of capacity increase, the time to deliver the capacity and the congestion threshold that triggers the need for capacity delivery. Monte Carlo simulation is used to take into account multiple sources of uncertainty. The model shows that a strategy of capacity delivery based on small increments and short response times can yield more benefits than strategies that consider large capacity increases and long response times. Furthermore, in the specific airport example considered here, it was found that a congestion threshold of 75% should be the trigger for capacity enlargements if strategies based on small capacity increments and 1 or 5 years to increase capacity are considered. The lesson for decision-makers is that congestion delays must be addressed with foresight.     

Embedded industrial production systems: Lessons from waste management in zinc production

To meet the sustainability challenge private companies must implement corporate strategies and adopt novel technologies. The technical and social embeddedness of industrial production systems, however, complicates these systems' transition towards sustainability. In the paper, mechanisms and conditions are reported for the development and implementation of waste management options in embedded industrial production systems. The focus is on the Dutch zinc production industry, which had to deal with a major waste problem; the generation of jarosite. The industry's options were to increase the jarosite waste storage capacity, to develop a jarosite treatment process or to switch to a zinc-ore of low-iron content whereby no jarosite waste would be generated anymore. Required conditions appeared to be a combination of technological capability and technical embedding and favourable economics. Case study research, however, revealed that adequate stakeholder management is crucial to address social pressure exerted and to obtain external acceptance for any transition strategy. Whilst appropriate, internal technological capabilities are important, effective interactions with and enrolment of various firm-external actors are crucial. In the case of zinc, access to the heterogeneous external actor network was critical for the development of the jarosite treatment solution direction. In conclusion, both the technical, organizational and social embedding of new technologies are crucial for successful implementation.     

Incentive Alignment,CEO Pay Level,and Firm Performance: A Case of “Heads I Win,Tails You Lose”?

In recent years, rewarding CEOs with long‐term forms of compensation (e.g., stock options, performance plans, restricted stock) has become more popular than using year‐end pay adjustments. Surprisingly, there is little empirical evidence to support the benefits of this trend. This study found that the benefits of long‐term compensation flowed primarily to CEOs as they received significantly greater levels of total compensation than CEOs in firms that emphasized year‐end pay adjustments. Paradoxically, however, firms that emphasized year‐end pay adjustments performed significantly better than firms that were heavy users of long‐term forms of contingent compensation. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Representing complete and incomplete subjective linear preferences on random numbers

We show that preferences on random numbers which satisfy certain natural properties can be represented, in the setting of topological vector spaces, by a suitable family of continuous previsions which is, in a sense, unique. Moreover, for most commonly used spaces of random numbers, we establish that one can derive these preferences, via an expectation operator, from a suitable family of probabilities (whether or not finitely additive). Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 06A06, 62C05, 91B06 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: D11, D81     

Component efficient solutions in line-graph games with applications

Recently, applications of cooperative game theory to economic allocation problems have gained popularity. We investigate a class of cooperative games that generalizes some economic applications with a similar structure. These are the so-called line-graph games being cooperative TU-games in which the players are linearly ordered. Examples of situations that can be modeled like this are sequencing situations and water distribution problems. We define four properties with respect to deleting edges that each selects a unique component efficient solution on the class of line-graph games. We interpret these solutions and properties in terms of dividend distributions, and apply them to economic situations. This research has been done while the third author was visiting Tinbergen Institute at the Free University, Amsterdam. The research is part of the Research Programme “Strategic and Cooperative Decision Making” at the Department of Econometrics. Financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) in the framework of the Russian-Dutch programme for scientific cooperation, is gratefully acknowledged. The third author also appreciates partial financial support from the Russian Leading Scientific Schools Fund (grant 80.2003.6) and Russian Humanitarian Scientific Fund (grant 02-02-00189a). We thank three anonymous referees for their valuable comments.