Almost-sure hedging with permanent price impact

We consider a financial model with permanent price impact. Continuous-time trading dynamics are derived as the limit of discrete rebalancing policies. We then study the problem of superhedging a European option. Our main result is the derivation of a quasilinear pricing equation. It holds in the sense of viscosity solutions. When it admits a smooth solution, it provides a perfect hedging strategy.     

Transport tax reform, commuting, and endogenous values of time

We consider a model of urban transport with two trip purposes, commuting (assumed perfectly complementary to labour supply) and noncommuting, to analyse the effects of transport tax reform on the value of time and marginal external congestion costs. Higher commuting taxes plausibly reduce time values, but higher noncommuting transport prices will typically raise the value of time. The intuition for this latter finding is that the reduction in congestion that follows from the tax increase itself raises net wages per hour of work (inclusive of commuting time). Empirical illustrations with Belgian data show a potentially large effect of transport tax reform on time values. In quite a few of the tax reforms studied traffic levels are reduced, but the increase in time values implies that marginal external congestion costs actually increase.     

Trust breeds trust: How taxpayers are treated

Tax compliance has been studied in economics by analysing the individual decision of a representative person between paying and evading taxes. A neglected aspect of tax compliance is the interaction of taxpayers and tax authorities. The relationship between the two actors can be understood as an implicit or “psychological” contract. Studies on tax evasion in Switzerland show that the more strongly the political participation rights are developed, the more important this contract is, and the higher tax morale is. In this paper, empirical evidence based on a survey of tax authorities of the 26 Swiss states (cantons) is presented, indicating that the differences in the treatment of taxpayers by tax authorities can be explained by differences in political participation rights as well. Received: June 2000 / accepted: November 2000     

Analysts' Roundtable on Integrating ESG into Investment Decision‐Making

In this third of the three discussions that took place at the SASB 2016 Symposium, practitioners of a broad range of investment approaches—active as well as passive in both equities and fixed‐income—explain how and why they use ESG information when evaluating companies and making their investment decisions. There was general agreement that successful ESG investing depends on integrating ESG factors with the methods and data of traditional “fundamental” financial statement analysis. And in support of this claim, a number of the panelists noted that some of the world's best “business value investors,” including Warren Buffett, have long incorporated environmental, social, and governance considerations into their investment decision‐making. In the analysis of such active fundamental investors, ESG concerns tend to show up as risk factors that can translate into higher costs of capital and lower values. And companies' effectiveness in managing such factors, as ref lected in high ESG scores and rankings, is viewed by many fundamental investors as an indicator of management “quality,” a reliable demonstration of the corporate commitment to investing in the company's future. Moreover, some fixed‐income investors are equally if not more concerned than equity investors about ESG exposures. ESG factors can have pronounced effects on performance by generating “tail risks” that can materialize in both going‐concern and default scenarios. And the rating agencies have long attempted to reflect some of these risks in their analysis, though with mixed success. What is relatively new, however, is the frequency with which fixed income investors are engaging companies on ESG topics. And even large institutional investors with heavily indexed portfolios have become more aggressive in engaging their portfolio companies on ESG issues. Although the traditional ESG filters used by such investors were designed mainly just to screen out tobacco, firearms, and other “sin” shares from equity portfolios, investors' interest in “tilting” their portfolios toward positive sustainability factors, in the form of lowcarbon and gender‐balanced ETFs and other kinds of “smart beta” portfolios, has gained considerable momentum.     

Implied volatility and skewness surface

The Homoscedastic Gamma (HG) model characterizes the distribution of returns by its mean, variance and an independent skewness parameter. The HG model preserves the parsimony and the closed form of the Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) while introducing the implied volatility (IV) and skewness surface. Varying the skewness parameter of the HG model can restore the symmetry of IV curves. Practitioner’s variants of the HG model improve pricing (in-sample and out-of-sample) and hedging performances relative to practitioners’ BSM models, with as many or less parameters. The pattern of improvements in Delta-Hedged gains across strike prices accord with predictions from the HG model. These results imply that expanding around the Gaussian density does not offer sufficient flexibility to match the skewness implicit in options. Consistent with the model, we also find that conditioning on implied skewness increases the predictive power of the volatility spread for excess returns.     

Marx,Lenin and the Cooperative Movement

Drawing upon the writings of Marx and Lenin, this article refutes the widely shared but incorrect assumption that Marx and Lenin rejected cooperation even as a mode of production for the transitional period. It reviews Marx's belief that cooperatives would gradually supplant capitalistic firms, and that the generalised growth of cooperation would give rise to a new mode of production; the article also analyses Lenin's 1923 article on cooperation in which not only is cooperation described as a major step in the transition to socialism, but even equated with socialism at large. The hypotheses of this article are supported through a close reading of these works and also shed light on numerous implications arising from this reading.     

Takeover prediction using forecast combinations

The ability to identify likely takeover targets at an early stage should provide investors with valuable information, enabling them to profit by investing in potential target firms. In this paper we contribute to the takeover forecasting literature by suggesting the combination of probability forecasts as an alternative method of improving the forecast accuracy in takeover prediction and realizing improved economic returns from portfolios made up of predicted targets. Forecasts from several non-linear forecasting models, such as logistic and neural network models and a combination of them, are used to determine the methodology that best reduces the out-of-sample misclassification error. We draw two general conclusions from our results. First, the forecast combination method outperforms the single models, and should therefore be used to improve the accuracy of takeover target predictions. Second, we demonstrate that an investment in a portfolio of the combined predicted targets results in significant abnormal returns being made by an investor, in the order of up to double the market benchmark return when using a portfolio of manageable size.     

Best Management Practices and the Production of Good and Bad Outputs

Agricultural activities simultaneously produce good and bad outputs. A translog cost function is used to evaluate the cost associated with reduction of chemical runoff and how it is influenced by the scale of crop and animal production. The results show that reducing runoff entails increasing costs and that these costs decrease with the level of crop production, but are unaffected by the level of animal production. The estimates of the cost elasticities of Best Management Practices (BMPs) were all positive, but many have large standard errors that imply that the true elasticities can be much lower or much higher. Also, the cost elasticities decrease with the scale of crop production for most BMPs whereas the scale of animal production has the opposite effect for crop rotation and herbicide control practices. Our results reaffirm that there are economies of size in production. L’agriculture produit de bons et de mauvais extrants. Une fonction de coût translog est utilisée pour évaluer les coûts associés à l’amélioration de la qualité de l’eau en réduisant les problèmes de ruissellement et de transfert de nutriments. Nous évaluons comment ces coûts changent avec les niveaux des productions animales et de cultures. Nos résultats indiquent que la réduction des transferts de nutriments est coûteux mais que l’élasticité-coût décroit avec la valeur des cultures produites tout en étant indépendant de l’envergure de la production animale. Les élasticités-coût associés aux pratiques environnementales (PE) sont positives et ont de grandes erreur-types, ce qui veut dire que les vraies élasticités peuvent être beaucoup plus grandes ou plus petites. Les élasticités-coût pour la plupart des PE diminuent avec la production de cultures produit tandis que la taille de la production animale a un effet contraire sur les élasticités pour la rotation de cultures et le contrôle des herbicides. Nos résultats confirment qu’il existe d’importantes économies de taille à exploiter en agriculture.     

Stress that Doesn't Pay: The Commuting Paradox*

People spend a lot of time commuting and often find it a burden. According to standard economics, the burden of commuting is chosen when compensated either on the labor or on the housing market so that individuals' utility is equalized. However, in a direct test of this strong notion of equilibrium with panel data, we find that people with longer commuting time report systematically lower subjective well‐being. This result is robust with regard to a number of alternative explanations. We mention several possibilities of an extended model of human behavior able to explain this “commuting paradox”.     

Exporting to new destinations and the effects of tariffs: the case of meat commodities

This study uses a random parameter probit estimation to examine the effects of tariff liberalization on the probability of establishing new trading relationships in meat commodities. Our simulation results indicate that the effects of tariff reductions decrease with distance, but increase with the level of development. The probabilities of trade increase at an increasing rate with the size of tariff reductions thus justifying calls for ambitious liberalization schemes. Canada and Mexico are the NAFTA countries that are most likely to export in response to EU tariff reductions on bovine and poultry meats, while Brazil and Argentina emerge as the MERCOSUR countries most likely to penetrate the EU bovine meat market after EU tariff reductions. Uruguay's probability to export poultry meat is most responsive to EU tariff reductions.