Capacity dynamics and the formulation of the airport capacity/stability paradox: A European perspective

Access to capacity is often considered to be uncertain, causing airlines to build buffer times into their flight schedules in anticipation of potential delays. Similarly, air navigation service providers use capacity buffers to overcome potential safety standard violations. However, the use of excessive buffers is detrimental to cost efficiency in the air transport system. This paper improves our understanding of capacity predictability. The concepts of capacity dynamics and stability are taken as integral parts of an airport's plan to mitigate the risk of capacity degradation. Based on the concepts of capacity dynamics and stability, the capacity/stability paradox is introduced and discussed.     

Managerial Incentives Based on Acquisition of Information

In a moral hazard setting, we model the fact that the agent may get private signals about the final outcome of his effort before the public realization of this outcome. Actions affect both the distribution of the outcome and the quality of the agent's private information. We compare simple contracts, based on output only, with revelation contracts, based on output and messages about signals. Revelation contracts give the agent some discretionary power during the course of the relationship; they are optimal if and only if lowering effort does not increase the quality of private information in the sense of Blackwell (1953). In the context of managerial compensation schemes, the revelation contracts we analyze can be viewed as allowing the agent to exercise an option on the final profits before the realization of these profits. The theory thus provides an alternative justification of the widespread use of stock options in managerial compensation schemes, as opposed to compensation schemes that rely only on salary, bonus, and (restricted) stock plans.     

Equality,complementarity and the incidence of public expenditures

The paper attempts to extend the Arrow utilitarian model on equity and efficiency of public expenditures in a number of ways. It is shown how one could, in principle, interpret an observed distribution of a public expenditure quantitatively in terms of the underlying interaction between the input and the individual attributes and the postulated normative policies applied. Examples are given of positive input interaction leading to regressive distributional outcomes, even if the underlying policy is egalitarian but not sufficiently so. Finally, the model is extended to the case of a progressive income tax and that of multiple government inputs.     

Facilitating knowledge flow through the enterprise

This paper is concerned with the issues we encountered when attempting to achieve enterprise level knowledge reuse. We present three pilot studies where new visualization techniques were used to allow manufacturing and service operations take advantage of engineering knowledge embodied in 3D models. Though all these studies showed dramatic productivity increases, only one business unit from the studies is currently working to achieve the reuse. There are a number of reasons why this is so, but the key underlying theme is a lack of enterprise level commitment to knowledge sharing and a lack of an adequate knowledge architecture for sharing knowledge across organizational boundaries. We conclude with an approach for facilitating knowledge flow across functional units. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Les subventions des taux d'intérêt et le prix de la terre agricole au Québec

Cet article analyse les variables influençant le prix de la terre agricole au Québec et analyse, plus spécifiquement, l'impact des taux d'intérêt sur emprunt puisque ce dernier est subventionné au Québec. On propose un modèle tenant compte de l'activité agricole et de l'activité non agricole. Un impact positif des recettes agricoles sur le prix de la terre est principalement noté dans les régions près des centres urbains où l'agriculture est concentrée, soit en périphérie de Montréal et dans la région de Québec. Les sources de revenus non agricoles ont un impact significatif sur le prix des terres settlement dans la région la plus urbaine, soit prés de Montréal. Selon les coefficients de flexibilité calculés et les taux d'intérêt en vigueur au cours de la période étudiée, l'abolition des subventions du taux d'intérêt pourrait initier une chute de l'ordre de 15% a court terme et de 7% a long terme du prix de la terre dans les régions de Québec et de Montreal.     

The market efficiency hypothesis: the case of coffee and cocoa futures

This study tests the market efficiency hypothesis for coffee and cocoa futures using daily data for contracts with a maturity of 2 and 6 months. The hypothesis is tested sequentially. The first condition is that future spot and futures prices be cointegraled. If this condition is maintained, market efficiency requires the cointegrating vector to support a (0, 1) restriction that can be likened to an unbiasedness condition. Finally, market efficiency imposes zero restrictions on the parameters of the variables expressed in first differences in the specification of the error-correction representation of the relationship between future spot and futures prices. Brenner and Kroner [Brenner, R., Kroner, K., 1995. Arbitrage, cointegration, and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30, pp. 23–42] argue that the cointegration condition is rarely met in practice. They attribute this outcome to potentially non-stationary net cost-of-carry which would make the parameters of the cointegration relation unstable. It is for this reason that Hansen's tests [Hansen, B.E., 1992. Tests of parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10] about the stability of the parameters in cointegration regressions were used to supplement more traditional cointegration tests, Johansen and Juselius' cointegration tests [Johansen, S., Juselius, K., 1992. Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK, Journal of Econometrics 53] could not reject cointegration for all four contracts while Hansen's L_C test favored cointegration only for the cocoa contracts. Nested and non-nested testing procedures were used to test the (0, 1) restriction on the cointegration vector. Unbiasedness was found to be robust across testing procedures. However, further testing about the specification of the error-correction representation revealed the existence of important short run deviations from unbiasedness, Even though these results hold strictly for a rather limited number of contracts and commodities, they are encouraging for futures markets advocates in developing countries.     

THE HIDDEN ECONOMY: STATE AND PROSPECTS FOR MEASUREMENT1

To know the size and development of the hidden or underground economy is important for policy making, mainly because the measures undertaken may be misdirected if they are based on biased official statistics. The hidden economy can be measured by considering indicators. The direct methods are based on voluntary surveys and on tax auditing and other compliance methods. The indirect estimation methods rely on the identification of residuals with respect to income and expenditures, as well as in the labor and money markets. The strengths and weaknesses of each of these measurement approaches are discussed and the resulting estimates of the size of the hidden economy are compared. A different approach to measurement is to look at the determinants leading to the existence and growth of the hidden economy. Finally, the method of “unobserved variables” allows the combination of the two approaches by simultaneously considering the determinants and indicators of the under- ground economy. The results show a considerable range of sizes for a given country and year. Though there is a broad range of size estimates, there is general agreement that the hidden economy's size has been growing for all countries over recent decades. Further progress in quantitative knowledge about the hidden economy requires the development of a theoretical model which analyses the interdependencies between the official private sector, the hidden economy, and the public sector.     

Consensus,dissension and ideology among economists in various European countries and in the United States

The paper analyzes consensus and dissension among economists on the basis of surveys conducted in Belgium, France, Germany, Switzerland and the United States. The outcome of the analysis is that there exists a considerable amount of consensus, but substantial differences across countries. In Europe, and especially in Belgium and France, the views of ‘left’ and ‘right’ economists differ, these differences are strong, as expected, on propositions which have a clear ideological content. However, it also appears that economists are not always willing to distinguish ‘technical’ and ‘political’ aspects of an economic issue.