Complexity and the limits to learning

In this paper we look at the manner in which ideas coming from complexity science change our understanding of the cognitive powers of agents that is really necessary to explain the evolution of markets and of firms. The general ideas behind complex systems dynamics and evolution are presented and then two examples are treated in detail. The first in an evolutionary model of a market in which some new product is developed by competing firms and their “task” is to find a strategy in terms of quality and price that will be sustainable. This essentially requires agents/firms to discover mutually compatible strategies, and to create thereby sustainable market niches. The second example considers the internal structure of firms, in terms of their constituent working practices and skills. It demonstrates that it is precisely their ignorance of the consequences of adopting any particular practice that generates diversity in the emergent capabilities of firms, exploring the dimension of potential demand and therefore leading to a successful and sustainable business sector. The work supports the notion that the cognitive abilities that are involved are not about deduction and logic, as a traditional view of rationality might suggest, but are about the development and contraction of interpretive frameworks, which will be different for each player. The paper links these examples to a general recognition of the idea that complex, multi-agent systems evolve through successive “structural attractors”—multi-dimensional dynamical systems—with temporary structural stability. Because real systems contain both the structure and deviations from it, then there is a constant probing of structural stability and the possibility of qualitative change to a new structural attractor. This resembles the ideas in biological evolution related to “punctuated equilibria,” but it also links this to the idea of emergent and evolving networks of interaction, never of course near thermodynamic equilibrium.      

On the importance of matching strategic behavior and target market selection to business strategy in high-tech markets

Business strategy is fundamentally concerned with the actions required to create superior customer value in the firm’s target markets with the ultimate goal of achieving superior performance. Marketing theory suggests that two critical marketing activities required to achieve this end are: (1) the adoption of appropriate strategic behaviors (i.e., customer-oriented, competitor-oriented, technology-oriented) and (2) targeting of the appropriate market segments (i.e., innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, laggards). This study builds on prior research which demonstrates that the strategic behavior—firm performance relationship is contingent on the firm’s strategy by examining this relationship in high tech markets and by considering the incremental contribution of appropriate target market selection. Responses from 160 senior marketing managers in high-tech firms reveal strong support for our framework. Thus, this study provides useful guidance to executives and managers in high-tech firms regarding the steps that they should take to increase their probability of success.

A longitudinal study of the impact of market structure,firm structure,strategy, and market orientation culture on dimensions of small-firm performance

The purpose of this article is to determine market orientation’s relative impact on small-business performance, compared to other influences, in an integrated model using longitudinal data. Contrary to expectations based on the management literature, the results indicate weak causal relationships between market environment, small-firm structure, and small-firm strategy. The results further indicate weak influences of these variables, but strong and consistent influences of market orientation, on various measures of small-firm performance. Contrary to expectations based on business policy literature, relative product quality and new product success were not significant influences on profitability, perhaps due to the significant influence of market orientation on these variables. In addition, although increases in growth/share had a significant short-term influence on increases in profitability, high levels of previous years’ firm growth/share had a negative influence on current profitability. The previous year’s level of firm coordinating systems and market competitive intensity has a significant impact on the level of small-firm market orientation.     

Changes needed in agricultural policy for female-headed farm families in tropical Africa

The decline in per-capita agricultural production has been reversed somewhat in tropical Africa by the structural adjustment programs which have increased producer prices, liberalized marketing and devalued currencies. But the 30% of smallholder farm households which are female-headed will not be assited much due to their special constraints of shortages of labor and credit, lack of extension visits and appropriate labor-saving technologies. For these households, the authors argue, improved extension services, credit for agricultural inputs, small ruminant animals and poultry, labor-saving devices and craft inputs will be necessary to increase their incomes and levels of living.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

Household Determinants of the Adoption of Improved Cassava Varieties using DNA Fingerprinting to Identify Varieties in Farmer Fields: A Case Study in Colombia

We examine factors affecting the adoption of improved cassava varieties of 217 households in the Cauca Department in southwest Colombia. Using DNA fingerprinting through Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), we identified different cultivars in farmers fields. We also used this information to remove possible bias in the adoption model that could have resulted from a misclassification of improved varieties (IVs). As a result, we found that farmers substantially overestimate their use of IVs and there are important differences in the determinants of adoption between farmer self‐identification and DNA fingerprinting. This finding implies that the incorporation of DNA fingerprinting in IV adoption studies is important to ensure the accuracy of future agricultural economic research and the relevance of subsequent policy recommendations.     

On the Opportunity Cost of Crop Diversification

Distance functions are increasingly being augmented, with environmental goods treated as conventional outputs. A common approach to evaluate the opportunity cost of providing an environmental good is the exploitation of the distance function's dual relationship to the value function. This implies that the opportunity cost is assumed to be non‐negative. This approach also requires a convex technology set. Focusing on crop diversification for a balanced sample of 44 cereal farms in the East of England for the years 2007–2013, this paper develops a novel opportunity cost measure that does not depend on these strong assumptions. We find that the opportunity cost of crop diversification is negative for most farms.     

Sustainability of fish pond culture in rural farming systems of Central and Western Cameroon

In Sub-Saharan Africa, fish ponds are often an integral part of farming systems but have suffered from a lack of viability and sustainability. The present study aims to understand the strategies used by fish farmers to overcome economic and environmental constraints. In 2008 and 2009, fish farmers were surveyed in Central and Western Cameroon, and the fish production systems were classified by cluster analysis. Four broad types were identified according to the complexity of household operations. The development of extensive systems (large-scale and low-input) in rural areas of central Cameroon is induced mainly by abundant available land. For semi-intensive systems in both regions (small-scale and high-input in the Western Region, large-scale and high-input in peri-urban areas of the Central Region), horizontal integration is not sufficient to make fish production profitable and sustainable. More intensive fish farms tend towards vertical integration, in which farmers establish close links with input suppliers. Main causes of low productivity of semi-intensive systems (1–2?t/ha/yr) are both lack of knowledge of fish farming principles by farmers and lack of technical improvement by extension agents and researchers which need to consider the local complexity of farming systems to develop and intensify fish production. The adaptation of development strategies to socio-economic and environmental contexts is a necessity to hope for an increase in fish pond aquaculture production in Africa.     

The role of collaborations in the development and implementation of sustainable livestock concepts in The Netherlands

This paper discusses the role of collaborations in the development and implementation of sustainable livestock farming. The study reflects upon the experiences with two innovative pig farming concepts in the Netherlands that aim to address sustainability-related concerns regarding the economic viability, environmental impact and social responsibility of livestock production. The findings show that collaborations can result in smarter and innovative solutions and provide support in the development of more sustainable farming concepts. The study also shows that collaborations do not safeguard the implementing of these concepts in practice. Pioneers are confronted with higher production costs and the complex context of agricultural policies and regulations. These pioneering efforts are, however, the seeds for change, and the key ingredient for a transition towards more sustainable production. We rely upon their innovations, social networks and learning experiences in the transition towards more sustainable production. Therefore, pioneers need to be protected from market influences and regulatory barriers, and supported by intermediaries when developing novelties for a more sustainable agriculture. The findings emphasize the need for more knowledge exchange and understanding between farmers, policy-makers and researchers to navigate towards a more sustainable agriculture in the future.