Revisiting and extending our understanding of Pierre Wack's the gentle art of re-perceiving

Pierre Wack's 1985 Harvard Business Review papers are two of the most frequently referenced in the scenario planning literature. Wack argued that planning had to be based on the more predictive elements of the business environment. If not, plans would be based on uncertainty and a ‘best guess’ basis. Yet there is a lack of subsequent empirical research to investigate Pierre Wack's contribution. The research findings presented in this paper extend our understanding of Wack's contribution. We show how social discourse during scenario building helped to make sense and reveal the significance of historical events. These historical events were seen, but not previously understood; consequently a new understanding of reality emerged. The findings are in contrast to Wack's explanation of re-perceiving and extend our understanding of the basis of re-perceiving with scenarios.     

Dynamical clustering of exchange rates

We use techniques from network science to study correlations in the foreign exchange (FX) market during the period 1991–2008. We consider an FX market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each weighted edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. To provide insights into the clustering of the exchange-rate time series, we investigate dynamic communities in the network. We show that there is a relationship between an exchange rate's functional role within the market and its position within its community and use a node-centric community analysis to track the temporal dynamics of such roles. This reveals which exchange rates dominate the market at particular times and also identifies exchange rates that experienced significant changes in market role. We also use the community dynamics to uncover major structural changes that occurred in the FX market. Our techniques are general and will be similarly useful for investigating correlations in other markets.     

Regional welfare loss meaures of the 1973 oil embargo: a numerical methods approach

A simple exercise of time-series analysis shows that the presence of the phonomenon of temporal aggregation in quarterly consumption data can substantially alter the empirical inference about Hall' mocel of consumption behaviour. This fact has received almost no attention in the econometric research in this field.     

中国失衡时代是否已终结

过去十年,全球性不均衡问题逐渐成为各国宏观经济政策的中心议题。本文重点分析了当前中国的外部失衡问题,研究了2008年后促使中国经常账户盈余下降的影响因素,预测了中国外部顺差的走向。本文认为,未来几年中国的经常账户盈余将保持适度。外部失衡不能反映当今中国国际收支的主要特征。随着中国国内经济越来越依赖投资的拉动,内部失衡问题将愈发明显。     

Religion and politics: understanding the effects of conservative origins on contemporary patterns of sub-national relative human development

Understanding the effects of historical circumstance on contemporary development patterns is important in understanding the overall trajectories of societies. Using a spatially centered technique and various sources of historical and contemporary data, this link is tested by examining variations in historical levels of conservative values in the American South on contemporary patterns of development. This context provides an interesting case study involving a time and region marked by rapid social change. Results show that the spatial distribution of development levels is non-random and that historical levels of highly conservative values are associated with lower levels of contemporary development.     

哈佛大学商学院

管理企业战略 企业在开始制定战略之前,先要问自己两个问题：第一、客户最喜欢我们哪一点？第二、我们要靠哪一种产品赚最多的钱？这就是“定位”。     

THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

After an introduction setting out the general state of work on the national accounts in the Middle East the author considers the principal uses of national accounts statistics in less developed countries. The first group of uses discussed is in connexion with the measurement of growth and the making of international comparisons. The author is of the opinion that in many cases the primary statistical series are so weak that the fact they they are combined together into a series called national income or gross domestic product lends to them a significance which they do not really possess. The real problem is to improve the quality of the primary series. A second use of national accounts statistics is in connexion with fiscal and budgetary policy. In the statistically advanced countries this is one of the most important uses but in the less developed countries budgetary policy has not yet reached a level of sophistication which would call for the use of national accounts data. Moreover, the time factor involved in assembling accurate national accounts estimates militates against their effective use for short term forecasting. The author considers that the most important use for national accounts statistics is to provide a framework for development planning. The United Nations system is not altogether appropriate for this purpose. It grew up primarily as a system for recording income flows but in development planning one is concerned equally with commodity flows with a great deal of attention being focussed upon intermediate products. The proposals of the working group of African Statisticians for an adaptation of the S.N.A. to African countries represents a most important advance in this respect. In the final section of the paper the author advocates a broader definition of capital formation to include developmental expenditure which is not properly defined as fixed capital formation. Education expenditure is cited as an example. It is suggested that in the national accounts it would be desirable to operate with gross concepts. However, the growth of the capital stock is obviously important in less developed countries and it is suggested that statistical techniques be devised to measure it directly wherever possible. Finally, attention is drawn to the ambiguities and weaknesses in the concept of residence as used at present in the S.N.A.     

哈佛大学经理为什么会制定出糟糕的战略？

假设你去一家百货商店购买手提箱。走在店里．你注意到陈列着的一块名贵的手表．上面的标价令人咋舌。你对这款售价为2000美元的手表毫无兴趣。那么．这块手表的昂贵价格会对你购买手提箱的心理价位产生影响吗7如果当时看到的是价钱低得多的浴巾．心理价位又会有什么不同呢？大多数人认为自己是理性的购物者．不会受此影响。但是我们发现．即使是不在顾客购物计划之列的商品．其价格也会影响他们的支付意愿。     

Real estate issues in corporate relocation in Western Europe

If you plan to relocate an office or plant in Europe to take advantage of Europe 1992, you need some understanding of European real estate markets and their effects on corporate relocation decisions.     

An economic strategy for America’s inner cities: Addressing the controversy

Conclusion Inner cities must compete, and can compete. Developing a new strategy will require an understanding of what is unique about each inner city, how to build on its advantages, and a plan to eliminate or reduce the many disadvantages to conducting business. This process will require the commitment and involvement of business, government, and the nonprofit sector.