The evaluation stage in marketing decision making

Prior to making important decisions, marketing managers go through an evaluation process in which available alternatives are compared. Yet, no systematic discussion of the evaluation process exists in the marketing literature. This article reviews the marketing and behavioral decision theory literature in order to identify factors that may cause errors in the two fundamental elements of the evaluation process—the estimation of probabilities and the determination of the value of outcomes. Propositions are developed that specify circumstances in which marketing management decisions may be influenced by judgmental biases, and procedures are identified for debiasing such judgments.     

Snapshot samples

We consider a coverage model where an initial event that occurs at some point in time triggers an activity of random duration that leads to some subsequent event. A snapshot sample is constructed at a fixed point in chronological time either by sampling only subjects where the initial event has occurred but the subsequent event has yet to occur (active subjects), or by sampling only subjects where both the initial and subsequent events have occurred (inactive subjects). The biases inherent in snapshot sampling can be neatly characterized by the properties of two random variables: the history (defined as the time the initial event occurs as measured into the past from the chronological point of sampling), and the active time (defined as the length of time between the initial and subsequent events). Though snapshot samples are biased, recognizing the biases enables correct inferences to be drawn from snapshot-sampled data. Considering only the case where and are independent random variables, this paper presents the probability models associated with snapshot sampling, demonstrates the problems that can occur, offers procedures for overcoming these problems, and applies the methods to interesting data sets.     

‘Double marginalization’ problems: evidence from the Korean fixed-to-mobile service market

In this paper, examination of the possibility of a ‘double marginalization’ problem existing in the Korean telecommunication industry is conducted and suggestions are made for the provision of a new scheme to eliminate this possibility by changing the pricing system for fixed-to-mobile calls. Based on five key economic characteristics in the Korean mobile market, a simple model for double marginalization in the telecommunication market is introduced. Evidence was found to suggest that a double marginalization problem is likely to exist within Korea's telecommunication industry as it is presently structured, and that this problem is further likely to have an adverse effect on the industry by inflating the price of fixed-to-mobile calls. Two alternatives are proposed to effectively remedy this double marginalization issue. It is also shown that prices of fixed-to-mobile calls could be lowered by changing the caller pays principle into a receiver pays principle.     

From edgeworth to fisher to vickrey: A comment on Michael J. Boskin's Vickrey lecture

Irving Fisher has been overlooked as an influence on William Vickrey's work on taxation and as a link between Edgeworth and Vickrey. Vickrey was Fisher's last and greatest student.