Futures assessment by field anomaly relaxation : A review and appraisal

Futures research includes the problem of generating reasonably exhaustive and plausible scenarios for a given topic, a problem for which there are no truly satisfactory solutions. This article reviews and evaluates a method, field anomaly relaxation, first put forward some 20 years ago. The evaluation is in the context of an illustrative study of political developments in Europe. The research reconstructs and further develops the method and concludes that it has something to offer for scenario generation. Its weaknesses are identified and suggestions for further research are made.     

International trade in a differentiated good: Trade elasticities in the world rice market

In many previous rice trade models, the commodity has been regarded as a homogeneous product. However, homogeneity is not an appropriate assumption, given the various types of rice that are traded and consumed. Parameters estimated from these models, therefore, do not reflect the real world market for rice and, hence, may mislead decision makers who use the results for policy evaluation purposes. This study uses an Armington approach to model the world rice trade as a differential good market and to derive trade elasticity parameters.     

Relative Significance of Journals,Authors, and Articles Cited in Financial Research

We evaluate journals based on their relative contributions to top-level finance research in a recent period. Journals are ranked according to the number of citations found in articles published in Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, and Review of Financial Studies. The analysis controls for both the average number of articles and average number of words published annually in each cited journal. We identify the fifty most frequently cited journals during this period. We also list the fifty most frequently cited authors and articles and note topical trends in the research.     

Significant Issues for the Future of Product Innovation

The value of a technology strategy has been increasingly discussed by R&D personnel and those involved in product development and business planning efforts. In this issue Albert Rubenstein and Americo Albala elevate this discussion by showing the importance of preparing a firm to compete by stressing the development of important, relevant technologies. Discovery and development must be channeled into areas that will be needed to support business initiatives likely to occur in the future. Albala stresses the importance of this change for the development of economies in nations that have been disappointed by the lack of success of importing technologies from more developed nations, while Rubenstein maintains that the pace of marketplace change requires a technology strategy in order to reduce the misapplication of scarce resources within the firm and the possibility of being blindsided by competitive developments. These essays continue a year-long series of contributions that the editor-in-chief solicited from members of the editorial board. Members were asked to reflect upon changes and opportunities that they see influencing our profession during the coming decade. Both of these short essays are designed to introduce new perspectives. It is not essential that you agree with the recommendations, but we hope that you are stimulated as you reflect on the issues they raise.     

The approximation capabilities of the minflex-Laurents,translog, and generalized Leontief forms

This paper compares the approximation capabilities of the minflex-Laurents translog and minflex generalized Leontief cost functions with their translog and generalized Leontief counterparts in Monte Carlo experiments. The minflex Laurent specifications generally provided closer approximations to underlying technical and economic parameters. Imposition of nonlinear restrictions on some of the parameters of the minflex Laurent models yielded measurable improvement in estimated elasticities of substitutions, returns to scale, and rates of technical change.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through E. Appelbaum.     

Hispanic Ethnicity,English‐Skill Investments,and Earnings

Analyzing synthetic cohorts in the 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Samples, we find that Mexican‐Americans and other Hispanics acquired English fluency at a faster pace than Puerto Ricans and Cuban‐Americans during the 1980s. Additional results indicate that English‐skill investments differently influenced the earnings distributions of these ethnic groups.     

Inter-industry technology flows in the US food-processing industries

The study examines the origins of technology important to improving productivity in the food-processing industries. Technology flows were measured both by patents in patent classes closely identified with six food industries, and by a sample of significant food-processing innovations. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that interindustry technology flows are the most significant determinant of productivity improvements in the food industries. These findings solve the enigma that the food-processing industries have enjoyed rapid improvements in productivity despite making very modest investments in research and development.     

Targeting Conservation Investments in Heterogeneous Landscapes: A Distance-Function Approach and Application to Watershed Management

To achieve an environmental objective at least cost, decision makers must integrate information about spatially variable biophysical and economic conditions. Although the biophysical attributes that contribute to an environmental outcome are often known, the way in which these attributes interact to produce the outcome is often unknown. We introduce a nonparametric conservation targeting approach that relies on distance functions to cost-efficiently allocate conservation funds. We apply the approach empirically to the case of conservation contracting for water-quality objectives. The contract portfolios derived from the application have many desirable properties, including intuitive appeal and robust performance across plausible parametric scoring measures.     

Price Changes and Some Underlying Aspects of Measurement of Poverty

The paper deals with effects of price changes on measurement of poverty. It is shown that there are situations, when prices and nominal incomes change, a higher nutritional intake or an increase in commodity consumption of the poor can be associated with higher poverty gaps and a higher poverty index of the society. A positive relationship of this kind is quite counter-intuitive in the context of poverty measurement. This is caused by the adjustment of the poverty line and/or incomes of one situation by the prices of the other for the purpose of comparison.