FISCAL REFORM IN SWEDEN: WHAT GENERATIONAL ACCOUNTING TELLS US

Generational accounts answer the simple question of how much future generations will have to pay in net taxes as compared to today's generations. This paper briefly reviews the concept of generational accounting and provides estimates for Sweden, where public finances deteriorated significantly after 1990. The results suggest that the measures adopted since 1994 should improve dramatically the relative position of future generations, who may nevertheless be expected to face large net tax bills.     

富有成效的领导者所必需的5种特性

到底是什么让领导者真正富有成效?这个问题都快被写烂了。绝大多数情况下,这个问题都会与最近的时尚联系起来。     

Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises

This paper provides a model of boom-bust episodes in middle-income countries. It is based on sectoral differences in corporate finance: the nontradables sector is special in that it faces a contract enforceability problem and enjoys bailout guarantees. As a result, currency mismatch and borrowing constraints arise endogenously in that sector. This sectoral asymmetry allows the model to replicate the main features of observed boom–bust episodes. In particular, episodes begin with a lending boom and a real appreciation, peak in a self-fulfilling crisis during which a real depreciation coincides with widespread bankruptcies, and end in a recession and credit crunch. The nontradables sector accounts for most of the volatility in output and credit.     

CAN A RULE‐BASED MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK WORK IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY? THE CASE OF YEMEN

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule‐based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term.     

YOU ARE ONE OF US NOW! HOW DO SHARE PRICES OF RIVALS REACT TO PRIVATIZATION?*

By using a unique data set from the Turkish cement industry, we analyze the impact of privatization on the market value of rival firms. Privatization increases efficiency, which is bad news for rivals. But if an incumbent buys a state owned firm, this leads to a higher market concentration which is good news for rivals. We show that privatization leads to overall positive abnormal returns for rivals because the concentration effect outweighs the efficiency effect. Consistent with our theory, this effect is reinforced when the initial market concentration is high.     

Learning Under Ambiguity

This paper considers learning when the distinction between risk and ambiguity matters. It first describes thought experiments, dynamic variants of those provided by Ellsberg, that highlight a sense in which the Bayesian learning model is extreme—it models agents who are implausibly ambitious about what they can learn in complicated environments. The paper then provides a generalization of the Bayesian model that accommodates the intuitive choices in the thought experiments. In particular, the model allows decision-makers' confidence about the environment to change—along with beliefs—as they learn. A portfolio choice application compares the effect of changes in confidence under ambiguity vs. changes in estimation risk under Bayesian learning. The former is shown to induce a trend towards more stock market participation and investment even when the latter does not.     

Conglomerate Investment,Skewness, and the CEO Long‐Shot Bias

Do behavioral biases of executives matter for corporate investment decisions? Using segment‐level capital allocation in multisegment firms (“conglomerates”) as a laboratory, we show that capital expenditure is increasing in the expected skewness of segment returns. Conglomerates invest more in high‐skewness segments than matched stand‐alone firms, and trade at a discount, which indicates overinvestment that is detrimental to shareholder wealth. Using geographical variation in gambling norms, we find that the skewness‐investment relation is particularly pronounced when CEOs are likely to find long shots attractive. Our findings suggest that CEOs allocate capital with a long‐shot bias.     

DOES SIZE MATTER? THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN GERMANY

Income inequality in Germany has been continually increasing during the past 20 years. One cause of this development, among others, could be structural shifts in household formation due to long‐term societal trends. These affect per capita incomes, which has repercussions for the income distribution even if wages remain constant. The aim of this paper is to quantify the proportion of changing household structures in the increase in inequality. We find that the growth of the income gap in Germany (for both East and West from 1991 to 2007) is indeed strongly related to changes in household structure and employment behavior, and a large part of this increase is compensated by the welfare state.     

A hierarchical approach to the external auditor's evaluation of the internal auditing function*

Abstract. The objective of this study was to examine the external auditor's evaluation of the internal audit function. A hierarchy of the attributes that enter into this decision process was developed based on prior research and with the assistance of Big 8 audit managers. An experiment which used the Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted with 22 audit supervisors and managers. Contrary to previous studies, the results indicated that the competence of the internal auditors was the most important factor, followed by the objectivity and work of the internal auditors. The AHP methodology allowed us to assess which specific attributes were most important to the external auditor's assessment of these factors. However, the variability of the weights of these attributes indicates low agreement among the practitioners as to which attributes are most important. Résumé. Les auteurs de la présente étude avaient pour objectif d'examiner l'évaluation de la fonction de vérification interne par le vérificateur externe. La hiérarchie des attributs qui entrent en ligne de compte dans ce processus de décision a été dressée à partir de travaux de recherche antérieurs et avec la collaboration de chefs de groupe en vérification des huit grands cabinets. Vingt-deux chefs d'équipe et chefs de groupe ont participé à une expérience faisant appel au processus de hiérarchie analytique. Contrairement aux résultats des études précédentes, les résultats de cette étude ont révélé que la compétence des vérificateurs internes était le facteur primordial, suivi de l'objectivité et du travail des vérificateurs internes. La méthodologie du processus de hiérarchie analytique a permis d'évaluer quels attributs précis étaient les plus importants dans l'évaluation de ces facteurs par les vérificateurs externes. Toutefois, l'importance des écarts relevés dans la pondération de ces attributs indique que l'unanimité est loin d'être faite chez les praticiens quant à l'importance relative des attributs.