Long‐Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

We provide new evidence on the success of long‐run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting microlevel household consumption data, we show that long‐run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross‐sectional variation in average asset returns than aggregate or nonstockholder consumption risk, and implies more plausible risk aversion estimates. We find that risk aversion around 10 can match observed risk premia for the wealthiest stockholders across sets of test assets that include the 25 Fama and French portfolios, the market portfolio, bond portfolios, and the entire cross‐section of stocks.     

Accounting for Flexibility and Efficiency: A Field Study of Management Control Systems in a Restaurant Chain*

While some field studies have suggested that management control systems can be used simultaneously to make organizations more efficient and more flexible, the contingency literature has found it difficult to address this issue in the absence of a clear and comprehensive typology for analyzing more processual uses of management control systems. This paper distinguishes between enabling and coercive (Adler and Borys 1996) uses of management control systems. Coercive use refers to the stereotypical top‐down control approach that emphasizes centralization and preplanning. In contrast, enabling use seeks to put employees in a position to deal directly with the inevitable contingencies in their work. The design principles that underlie the enabling use of management control systems are repair, internal transparency, global transparency, and flexibility. Through a detailed analysis of a single‐case field study carried out over a two‐year period, we illustrate how management pursued the objectives of efficiency and flexibility by using management control systems in enabling ways. We suggest that the four design principles of enabling use can facilitate field studies of management control systems, but that they can also be used to define an enabling typology for contingency researchers to analyze the ways in which organizations simultaneously pursue efficiency and flexibility through their management control systems.     

Managerial Advantages of using Payback as a Surrogate for NPV

Existing literature identifies specific situations in which payback methods (PB) can provide precise surrogates for NPV analyses of accept/reject decisions. This paper extends that literature to take explicit account of taxation and of ranking decisions using profitability indices. Nevertheless, NPV can be considered preferable to PB as a basis for maximising stockholder wealth (MSW), because it requires fewer assumptions and provides more information. Yet simple PB continues to be used extensively, which suggests that it has advantages for decision-makers. Some authors suggest that its use reflects managerial short-termism and is inconsistent with MSW. In contrast, this paper proves that (with standard patterns of cash flows, defined risk classes and asymmetrical information) the use of PB instead of NPV should motivate risk-averse subordinate managers to adopt more positive NPV projects. Consequently, the appropriate use of PB can result in more wealth for stockholders than would occur using NPV directly. Furthermore, the use of PB avoids a number of costs and in the appropriate circumstances may therefore be the most cost-effective basis for evaluating investment decisions.     

Public Expenditures,Growth, and Distribution in a Mixed Regime of Education with a Status Motive

This paper tackles the issue of growth, distribution, and the provision of public services in a growth model with human capital accumulation where heterogeneous individuals decide whether to attend a publicly funded education regime or a privately funded one. Heterogeneity of individuals is introduced via their status‐motivation which is shown to affect their choice of education. In such a framework, we obtain an inverted‐U shaped relationship between growth and the size of the public education sector. In contrast with the general wisdom, we show that a larger public education sector is compatible with both a reduction of inequalities and an increase of long‐term growth. Although we demonstrate that in a majoritarian system all individuals agree on a lower size of the public education regime than that which maximizes growth, our analysis also highlights the tension between the direct beneficiaries and nonbeneficiaries from the public regime.     

Overaccumulation,Interest, and Prices

I use a financial accelerator model to study interest and prices under boom–busts driven by changes in expectations about total factor productivity (TFP) and credit. I show that inflation falls in the boom phase of the TFP episode and then recovers during the bust, yet rises in the boom phase of the credit episode and then falls during the bust. Furthermore, for both episodes, the overaccumulation of debt relative to capital during the boom is critical for the busts since it implies a fall in credit worthiness. Finally, I show that stricter inflation targeting reduces inefficiencies in all instances but the boom phase of the TFP episode.     

A VARMA Analysis of the Causal Relations Among Stock Returns,Real Output,and Nominal Interest Rates

Previous research has documented a negative relation between common stock returns and inflation. Recently, Fama 3 and Geske and Roll 6 have argued that this relation results from a more fundamental one between real activity and expected inflation. Stock returns, they argue, signal changes in real activity, which in turn affect expected inflation. However, unlike Fama, Geske and Roll argue that changes in real activity result in changes in money supply growth, which in turn affect expected inflation. Empirical tests have analyzed separately each link in the proposed causal chain. In this article, we investigate simultaneously the relations among stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money supply changes using a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model. Our empirical results strongly support Geske and Roll's reversed causality model.     

The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets

Disentangling the causal impact of media reporting from the impact of the events being reported is challenging. We solve this problem by comparing the behaviors of investors with access to different media coverage of the same information event. We use zip codes to identify 19 mutually exclusive trading regions corresponding with large U.S. cities. For all earnings announcements of S&P 500 Index firms, we find that local media coverage strongly predicts local trading, after controlling for earnings, investor, and newspaper characteristics. Moreover, local trading is strongly related to the timing of local reporting, a particular challenge to nonmedia explanations.