Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination

This article investigates the out-of-sample forecast performance of a set of competing models of exchange rate determination. We compare standard linear models with models that characterize the relationship between exchange rate and the underlying fundamentals by nonlinear dynamics. Linear models tend to outperform at short forecast horizons especially when deviations from long-term equilibrium are small. In contrast, nonlinear models with more elaborate mean-reverting components dominate at longer horizons especially when deviations from long-term equilibrium are large. The results also suggest that combining different forecasting procedures generally produces more accurate forecasts than can be attained from a single model.     

Average Internal Rate of Return and Investment Decisions: A New Perspective

The internal rate of return (IRR) is often used by managers and practitioners for investment decisions. Unfortunately, it has serious flaws: (1) multiple real-valued IRRs may arise; (2) complex-valued IRRs may arise; (3) the IRR is, in general, incompatible with the net present value (NPV) in accept/reject decisions; (4) the IRR ranking is, in general, different from the NPV ranking; (5) the IRR criterion is not applicable with variable costs of capital. The efforts of economists and management scientists in providing a reliable project rate of return have generated over the decades an immense bulk of contributions aiming to solve these shortcomings. This article offers a complete solution to this long-standing unresolved issue by changing the usual perspective: the IRR equation is dismissed and the evaluator is allowed to describe the project as an investment or a borrowing at his discretion. This permits showing that any arithmetic mean of the one-period return rates implicit in a project reliably informs about a project's profitability and correctly ranks competing projects. With such a measure, which we call average internal rate of return, complex-valued numbers disappear and all the above-mentioned problems are wiped out. The economic meaning is compelling: it is the project return rate implicitly determined by the market. The traditional IRR notion may be found as a particular case.     

Technology investment and alternative regulatory regimes with demand uncertainty

A vertically integrated incumbent and an OLO (Other Licensed Operator) compete in the market for broadband access. The incumbent has the option to invest in building a Next Generation Network that covers all urban areas with similar demand structures. The investment return in terms of demand increase is uncertain. We compare the impact of different access regulation regimes – full regulation, partial regulation (only the copper network is regulated), risk sharing – on investment incentives and social welfare. We find that, when the alternative for the OLO is using the copper network rather than leaving the market entirely, exclusion of the OLO does not necessarily happen in equilibrium even when the incumbent is better in offering value-added services. Risk sharing emerges as the most preferable regime both from a consumer and a social welfare perspective for a large range of parameters.     

Intra-Industry Gaps in Technology and Investments in Technological Capabilities: Firm-level evidence from Chile

This paper develops a theoretical framework to analyse intra-industry gaps in technology, and tests it with enterprise-level data from a developing country. Following neoclassical theory, the existence of inter-firm technological gaps is explained by factor market segmentation that determines different factor prices and therefore different firms' technological choices. However, intra-industry gaps in technology may also result from the nature of the process of technological development, and from the different level of investments in technological capabilities.The empirical analysis is based on a sample of 338 industrial enterprises from Chile, and shows that it is possible to define technological thresholds, characterised by significant shifts in technology, independently of factor market segmentation. The analysis focuses on five major sectors: food processing, textile and garments, woodworking, metalworking and paper. Firms with different levels of technological complexity coexist within the same industry, and differences in technology are discrete, with different clusters sharing similar characteristics within the same industry. These results also have important policy implications for industrial development, which are drawn in a final section.     

Explaining co-movements between stock markets: The case of US and Germany

We explain co-movements between stock markets by explicitly considering the distinction between interdependence and contagion. We propose and implement a full-information approach on data for US and Germany to provide answers to the following questions:

(i) Is there long-term interdependence between US and German stock markets?

(ii) Is there short-term interdependence and contagion between US and German stock markets, i.e. do short-term fluctuations of the US share prices spill over to German share prices and is such co-movement unstable over high-volatility episodes?

Our answers are, respectively, no to the first question and yes to the second one.     

Collective Bargaining and Wage Dispersion in Europe

The level at which collective bargaining takes place is usually considered important in determining wage levels and wage inequalities. Two different situations are considered: a first in which bargaining is only ‘multi‐employer’, and a second in which it is ‘multi‐level’, in the sense that workers can be covered by both a ‘multi‐employer’ and a ‘single‐employer’ contract at the same time. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of these different institutional settings on pay dispersion. The study is carried out using the European Structure of Earnings Survey, which is a large dataset containing detailed matched employer–employee information for the year 1995. The countries analysed are Italy, Belgium and Spain. The empirical results generally show that wages of workers covered by only a ‘multi‐employer’ contract are no more compressed than those of workers covered by both ‘multi‐employer’ and ‘single‐employer’ contracts. This implies that where workers are not covered by single‐employer bargaining, they receive wage supplements paid unilaterally by their employers.     

Prospects for external sources of vehicle propulsion: Results of a Delphi study

This article presents the outcome of a Delphi study carried out between October 1995 and February 1996. The subject of the study is external sources of vehicle propulsion, and its possible role in achieving more sustainable modes of transportation. The Delphi study concludes that external propulsion technologies are unlikely to be the substitute for internal combustion engines. External sources of power or energy are potentially a means of saving energy, because the weight of vehicles can be reduced and energy can be produced on a large scale thus boosting efficiency. However, there is no practical system by which these advantages can be realized without putting an unacceptable strain on the quality of the transport system. The costs would be huge; there would be considerable energy losses; safety problems could arise; and the flexibility of the users is limited. Electric vehicles could, however, become important. Pantographs and quick charging techniques could become important technologies if battery technology will not improve considerably.     

Can cognitive neuroscience give rise to satellite disciplines,such as neuro-economics?

Many disciplines have recently emerged, which are all characterized by the prefix “neuro” added to the name of a traditional discipline from the fields of social sciences or humanities. Among them, there is “neuro-economics.” These disciplines are all based on the assumption of modularity. However, modularity is not the only possible way to conceive of the relations between mental functions and the brain. Furthermore, the assumption of modularity becomes useful only on condition that there are ways for determining what brain areas are active at a given moment, while a human being is performing an experimental task. In spite of the popularity neuro-imagining techniques enjoy that is not (yet?) the case. Even more problematic is the fact that, in order to make use of neuro-imagines, one must know what mental functions are required to perform the experimental task and what is the time course of those functions. For very few tasks, if any, we have the type of knowledge that would be necessary. Finally, even assuming that all conditions are met, what we would have achieved is simply to map mental functions into brain areas. However, localizing does not mean explaining and/or understanding. Even if it were possible precisely to map-specific mental functions into well-localized brain areas, which presently is not, the explanatory value of brain localization is doubtful. In order to explain why and how a given mental function occurs, knowing where in the brain it takes place is of little help. A true explanation requires being precise and explicit about the mechanisms that cause that mental function.     

Capital Structure and Regulation: Do Ownership and Regulatory Independence Matter?

We study the effect of ownership structure and regulatory independence on the interaction between capital structure and regulated prices using a comprehensive panel data of publicly traded European utilities. We find that firms in our sample tend to have a higher leverage if they are privately controlled and regulated by an independent regulatory agency. Moreover, the leverage of these firms has a positive and significant effect on their regulated prices, but not vice versa. Our results are consistent with the theory that privately controlled regulated firms use leverage strategically to obtain better regulatory outcomes.