Quantitative properties of sovereign default models: Solution methods matter

We study the sovereign default model that has been used to account for the cyclical behavior of interest rates in emerging market economies. This model is often solved using the discrete state space technique with evenly spaced grid points. We show that this method necessitates a large number of grid points to avoid generating spurious interest rate movements. This makes the discrete state technique significantly more inefficient than using Chebyshev polynomials or cubic spline interpolation to approximate the value functions. We show that the inefficiency of the discrete state space technique is more severe for parameterizations that feature a high sensitivity of the bond price to the borrowing level for the borrowing levels that are observed more frequently in the simulations. In addition, we find that the efficiency of the discrete state space technique can be greatly improved by (i) finding the equilibrium as the limit of the equilibrium of the finite-horizon version of the model, instead of iterating separately on the value and bond price functions and (ii) concentrating grid points in asset levels at which the bond price is more sensitive to the borrowing level and in levels that are observed more often in the model simulations. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets.     

Advantages of assembly lines in Sheltered Work Centres for Disabled. A case study

Current practices for the treatment of the physically and/or mentally handicapped prescribe meaningful job activity as a means towards both a more fulfilling life and societal integration. In many countries, these practices have facilitated the development of many Sheltered Work Centres for Disabled.In the case study presented, a reengineering process is done starting from individual workplaces where only certain workers were capable of assembling the entire product, and finishing with an assembly line implementation. It is revealed how the traditional division of work in single tasks, typical in assembly lines, becomes a perfect tool for making certain worker disabilities invisible, providing new jobs for disabled people; always taking into account certain special constraints that are analysed.     

HOW STOCK-SWAP MERGERS AFFECT SHAREHOLDER (AND BONDHOLDER) WEALTH: MORE EVIDENCE OF THE VALUE OF CORPORATE "FOCUS"

Alfred Chandler once described the U.S. conglomerate movement of the 1960s and '70s as an "historical aberration and a 'disaster." And the recent trend in corporate mergers and acquisitions away from "diversifying" acquisitions would seem to confirm Chandler's argument.
In what constitutes yet another piece of evidence in support of Chandler's argument, the authors of this article conducted a study of changes in debt and equity values in 260 stock-forstock mergers completed between 1963 and 1996. With a sample almost evenly divided between conglomerate and "related" mergers, the authors report significant net wealth gains for all securityholders as a group in "related" mergers, but generally insignificant net gains for securityholders in conglomerate mergers. Not surprisingly, target firm shareholders experienced net wealth gains in both kinds of acquisitions; but for acquiring company shareholders, there was a striking difference: economically and statistically significant gains for acquirers in related transactions, and significant losses for acquirers in conglomerate deals.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the study, however, was that even the bondholders of acquirers in related mergers benefited more than bondholders in conglomerate deals. The result is surprising because, to the extent bondholders benefit from corporate diversification, one would expect the opposite result. That bondholders in related mergers experience larger wealth increases than those of conglomerate acquirers is just one more sign of the dramatic differences in total value created by the two kinds of mergers.     

Assessing the needs of international markets against an emerging market company's capabilities: A tool for internationalization

Senior managers in emerging markets often strive to ensure that their companies develop sufficient capabilities to confront the needs they encounter in international markets. However, extant research and practice remain unclear as to how senior managers in emerging market companies can approach assessing the needs of their international markets against their own company's capabilities, to aim for a balance between both. This article offers an innovative approach for assessing the needs of international markets against an emerging market company's capabilities. Based on the assessments of 100 senior managers leading emerging market companies, we explain how this approach can provide two key insights. First, evidence of a balance between the needs of international markets and an emerging market company's capabilities, that indicates the company's competitive position is focused; or evidence of an imbalance between the needs of international markets and an emerging market company's capabilities, that indicates the company's competitive position is either vulnerable or overqualified. Second, an understanding of where the gaps between the needs of international markets and an emerging market company's capabilities are, that enables improving the company's competitive position by closing these gaps. Drawing on this approach, we offer an open access tool that allows senior managers in emerging markets to identify and improve their own company's competitive position for internationalization. Using this tool, senior managers can lead their emerging market companies toward a focused competitive position in international markets, providing better chances of successfully capturing potential benefits.     

The economic return on education for hotel managers

This paper estimates econometrically the economic return on education among Portuguese hotels managers, based on a survey carried out in 2003. A Mincerian human capital model is estimated. The main findings indicate that the rate of return is in the range 12–15%, signifying that Portuguese hotel managers are better paid than the average population. The results also indicate that in this sector, the return on education does not depend on the number of employees in the hotels in which the individual works, nor on the region where the hotel is situated. Gender has an impact in this labour market. Being a foreign manager has a positive impact on earnings, as is also the case for partners in the hotel company. The research draws the attention of hotel managers to the need to acquire human capital to enable them to perform their tasks effectively in a globalised world. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies

We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Firms’ performance under different bankruptcy systems: a Europe–USA empirical analysis

This study empirically analyses the effect that the bankruptcy law has on firms’ performance based on its financial situation. To do this, we considered the different types of efficiency and their influence on firms’ value. The study was carried out for Germany, Spain, the United States, France and the United Kingdom. We applied System‐GMM estimation to dynamic panel data. The main results show that under creditor‐oriented systems, there is a decrease in the value of both financially distressed firms and those filing for bankruptcy.     

CREDIT CYCLES REDUX*

Theoretical studies have shown that under unorthodox assumptions on preferences and production technologies, collateral constraints can act as a powerful amplification and propagation mechanism of exogenous shocks. We investigate whether or not this result holds under more standard assumptions. We find that collateral constraints typically generate small output amplification. Large amplification is obtained as a “knife‐edge” type of result.     

HOW DID THE ASIAN STOCK MARKETS REACT TO BANK MERGERS AFTER THE 1997 FINANCIAL CRISIS?

Abstract.  The objective of this paper is to empirically assess the stock market reaction to the announcement of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in eight East Asian countries over the 1997–2003 period. M&As are classified according to the status of entity, the time period of the deal and the maturity of the banking system. A bivariate GARCH model is used to estimate abnormal returns taking beta conditional variability into account. We find that the market reacted negatively to M&As during the crisis period (1997–2000) and also in the less mature banking systems (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand).     

The evolution of world trade from 1995 to 2014: A network approach

This paper employs network analysis to study world trade from 1995 to 2014. We focus on the main connective features of the world trade network (WTN) and their dynamics. Results suggest that countries’ efforts to attain the benefits of trade have resulted in an intertwined network that is increasingly dense, reciprocal, and clustered. However, these features do not correspond to a linear aggregation of the characteristics of its constituents (trade sectors). Trade linkages are distributed homogeneously among countries, but their intensity (i.e. their value) is highly concentrated in a small set of countries. The main connective features of the WTN were not affected by the 2007–2008 international financial crisis. However, we find that the crisis marks a turning point in the evolution of the WTN from a two-group (led by the US and Germany) to a three-group (led by the US, Germany, and China) hierarchical structure.