A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

Do physician incentives affect hospital choice? A progress report

The US health reforms of March 2010 introduced new provisions for physicians providing Medicare and Medicaid services to be given financial incentives to control costs. Physician payment mechanisms generating similar incentives are currently used by some health maintenance organizations in California. We describe an ongoing research project in which we investigate physician responses to these payment schemes. The question is whether patients whose physicians have incentives to control hospital costs are admitted to lower-priced hospitals than other patients, all else equal. We provide an initial analysis of California hospital discharge data from 2003, documenting evidence consistent with this hypothesis.     

Location and competition in retail banking

We investigate the impact of banking deregulation during the 1990s on consumer welfare. We estimate a spatial model of consumer demand for retail bank deposits that explicitly accounts for consumer disutility from distance traveled. This is important given the substantial changes in banks' branch networks observed in the data. Our model indicates that cross-price elasticities between banks whose branches are close to consumers (‘close’ banks) are larger than those between ‘far’ banks and more than double the cross-price elasticity of ‘close’ banks with respect to ‘far’ banks. We distinguish between thrifts and other banks and find that within-thrift competitive effects are stronger than within-bank effects or those between thrifts and banks. We use our estimates to predict the effect of changes in market structure on consumer welfare following the branching deregulation of the Riegle–Neal Act of 1994. Our results indicate that the median household gained around $60 per year from the changes. Approximately two thirds of the gains come from within-market changes in market structure. The gains were greater in markets with high initial numbers of banks than elsewhere.     

Bond indenture provisions and the risk of corporate debt

This paper examines the effect of alternative bond indenture provisions on the allocation of risk among the firm's claimants. The approach taken here differs from that of earlier studies in that risk allocation is examined while the firm's leverage (in market value terms) is held constant. In this context, four indenture provisions are examined: (1) the time to maturity, (2) the promised payment schedule, (3) financing restrictions and (4) priority rules. It is concluded that risk is transferred from stockholders to bondholders as the time to maturity and promised payment increase appropriately. Furthermore substitution of longer-term debt for an equal amount of shorter-term debt also increases the risk to bondholders while decreasing the risk to stockholders. The analysis shows that a coupon bond can be represented by a unique discount bond with the same risk and value. This permits the characterization of the effective maturity of a risky debt issue, a concept analogous to the stochastic duration of a default-free coupon bond. These results are shown to be independent of the means used to finance the debt issue. Finally, it is concluded that the relative risk associated with different bonds issued by the same firm cannot be determined by the structure of priority rules alone. It is also necessary to consider the timing of the promised payments compared to that of the other debt issues in the firm's capital structure.     

THE VALUE OF A FORWARD CONTRACT IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES

Under some assumptions a valuation model for a forward contract in foreign currencies is developed. The model produces the value of the contract which is consistent with the value of other types of forward contract; the initial value is zero, and subsequent values are the present values of the differences between the forward rate when the contract is written and current forward rates.     

Citizens’ trust in government and their willingness-to-pay

We employ the Hicksian compensating variation and a citizen’s subjective perspective on trustworthiness of government, and draw a positive association between citizens’ trust in government and their willingness-to-pay. Our finding suggests that public projects can be hindered by prevailing distrust toward government.     

Integrating the resource-based view and transaction cost economics in immigrant business performance

This paper presents a new integrated framework that integrates the resource-based view and transaction cost economics to explain the phenomenon of immigrant entrepreneurship. We extend the existing literature on immigrant entrepreneurship by identifying different types of ethnic network resources and demonstrating how these resources interact with transaction costs in the context of Chinese immigrants. Thus, our study contributes to the literature by providing a theoretical framework which identifies mechanisms immigrant entrepreneurs use to strategically deploy resources to minimize costs and maximize performance outcomes.     

Social comparison among competing firms

Extending social comparison theory to the context of interfirm competition, we investigate whether and under what conditions firms may benefit by deviating from consumers' views concerning firm comparisons. Based on all of the possible dyadic competitive comparisons among the 26 automakers in the United States, we found that: (1) a focal firm enjoys a greater increase in sales than the target firm when it compares itself with a more reputable target firm, even though consumers do not perceive the focal firm to be comparable to the more reputable firm; and (2) a focal firm enjoys a greater increase in sales than the target firm when it avoids comparison with a less reputable target firm, even though consumers compare the focal firm with the less reputable firm. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market

A sports lottery in Korea presents a unique opportunity for comparing a parimutuel‐type sports lottery market against a bookmaker market outside the realm of horse racing. Using two‐ and three‐game soccer final‐score betting in the sports lottery market in Korea, which features matches in the English Premier League, we compare winning payoffs in this parimutuel‐type sports lottery against corresponding payoffs from an established bookmaker market in the United Kingdom. We find that for outcomes with relatively high payouts (that is, lower‐probability events), winning bets placed in the sports lottery market have greater payoffs than corresponding bets placed in the bookmaker‐based market. However, the opposite is true for outcomes with relatively low payouts (that is, higher‐probability events). Results suggest that participants in the sports lottery market tend to bet more toward high‐probability events than the amount implied by the bookmaker's odds. Results also suggest that the favorite‐longshot bias is still present in the bookmaker market, even when there is less threat of privately informed bettors than in horse racing.     

Will Japan,Taiwan or the US be isolated by China? A macroeconomic game approach

In Taiwan, Japan and even the United States, economic isolation has become a major concern due to the growing Chinese economy, which may lead to welfare losses for the isolated countries. On the basis of the framework developed by Plasmans et al. [Plasmans, J., Engwerda, J., van Aarle, B., Di Bartolomeo, G., Michalak, T., 2005. Dynamic Modelling of Monetary and Fiscal Cooperation Among Nations. Springer], this paper establishes a four-player game with an open-loop information structure to measure possible losses by an international policy coordination approach instead of the conventional free trade agreements. We simulate macroeconomic adjustments of the four countries according to the different institutional scenarios and economic shocks. The baseline simulation and sensitivity analyses indicate that Taiwan can get benefit by participating in coalitional mechanisms including China. In addition, most of the feasible policy coalitions cannot come into effect without US participation. This implies that at the current stage the US rather than China should be the main economic partner of Taiwan and Japan to prevent them from being economically marginalized.