The George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies: A Continuous Assessment of the Technology Revolution

A method is presented for the continuous assessment of major technological advances—the George Washington University (GWU) forecast of emerging technologies. Environmental scanning and trend analysis are used to identify emerging technologies (ETs), and a Delphi-type survey then asks a panel of authorities to estimate the year each advance will occur, its associated probability, the potential size of its market, and the nation that will lead each ET. Eighty-five prominent ETs have been identified and grouped into 12 fields: energy, environment, farming and food, computer hardware, computer software, communications, information services, manufacturing and robotics, materials, medicine, space, and transportation. Results are presented from four survey rounds covering the past 8 years, and they are compared longitudinally to estimate the range of variance. The data are also divided into three successive decades to provide scenarios portraying the unfolding waves of innovation that comprise the coming technology revolution.     

Judging the probability of a contingent loss: An empirical study*

Abstract. This paper reports the results of research in which experienced auditors interpreted the criteria of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 5 (SFAS 5): Accounting for Contingencies. The research focuses on two issues: (1) the nature and degree of consensus in the auditors' interpretations, and (2) the extent to which these interpretations depend upon the type of contingent loss. Forty-five experienced auditors (managers, principals, and partners) from “Big 8” CPA firms responded to a research instrument that elicited their interpretation of SFAS 5 probability criteria. Our analysis focuses upon the thresholds between the “remote” and “reasonably possible” criteria and between the “reasonably possible” and “probable” criteria. Our results indicate: (1) threshold means of 0.16 and 0.68, respectively; (2) more auditor consensus for the first threshold than for the second; (3) the first threshold was significantly lower than indicated by previous research; and (4) the thresholds were generally not dependent upon the type of contingent loss.     

Valuation-based accounting research: Implications for financial reporting and opportunities for future research

This paper discusses the relation between financial reporting research and practice, particularly standard setters. Many studies addressing financial reporting issues use a valuation approach. The paper describes alternative approaches to valuation research and summarises the findings relating to four major current issues: fair value accounting for financial, tangible, and intangible assets, cash flows versus accruals, recognition versus disclosure, and international harmonisation of accounting standards. The summaries include identifying what standard setters and others would like to learn from research, what we have learned, and what is left to learn. The paper concludes with observations about future financial reporting academic research.     

The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: A critique on a paper by B.T. McCallum

Conclusion Certainly these last comments lead to the question what should be targeted: the growth rate [as for example in Gordon’s 1985 work] or the level as in Hall [1983] or McCallum [1988] or no targeting at all [like in Friedman 1960; 1968; 1985] or Meltzer [1984; 1987]. Since targeting GNP growth rates might lead to instability and overshooting effects as Taylor [1985] points out, altering rule (1) in that way is not appropriate. But targeting on the levels may not reduce fluctuations in growth rates or prevent cycles at all. If the latter are, however, more important in public opinion, a policy problem emerges. To summarize the last comment in a figurative way: McCallum’s rule prevents inflation in the long run and may prevent fluctuations in terms of half a Kondratieff cycle, but it preserves and intensifies Juglar and shorter cycles.     

A simulation model for evaluating a set of emergency vehicle base locations: development, validation, and usage.

This paper describes our experiences in developing a simulation model for evaluating a set of emergency response vehicle base locations. The project was undertaken jointly by the University of Arizona and the Tucson Fire Department. The issues of model development, data collection, model validation, and experimentation are discussed. The critical nature of the problem and the clients' lack of experience with mathematical models, made model validation the major step in gaining user acceptance. We show that looking solely at standard performance statistics such as the calls successfully serviced, may lead to the acceptance of an invalid model. We also show that the high level of detail used in many simulation models for evaluating base locations is unnecessary in the current case. An analysis evaluating two alternative sets of locations for the Tucson system is discussed.     

Friend or Foe?— Farmer Perceptions of Biotechnologh1

This paper is the result of survey investigation the attitudes of Western Canadian farmers toward two biotechonological products, ENFIX-L and PB-50. Farmers were asked to rate both the importance and the performance of 21 attributes of the products. Soil depletion was found to be an important concern to many farmers. personal and environmental risks were less of a concern. Overall, it was found that the non-biotech-nological aspects of a product would prevail in purchasing decisions.