RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY

The process by which producers form expectations has implications for model building and policy analysis. An econometric model of the Australian wool market is estimated. It is shown that the rational expectations hypothesis is not inconsistent with the data for both the period before the floor price scheme was implemented and since that date. This finding has important implications, since it has been shown that the welfare gains from stabilisation are small if producers form rational expectations.     

a fire inspector calls

Mike Fisher, an Institute of Economic Affairs' trustee and director of Whale Tankers, explains what happened when the fire inspector called on the home of the great British whale.     

Seasonal Patterns and Regional Preferences in Japanese Household Demand for Seafood

This study addresses the little analyzed Japanese consumer demand for seafood. A demand system approach is used to analyze demand for a group of seafood products that make up the representative household's total expenditures on seafood for at-home consumption. The linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (U/AIDS) is applied to monthly data from 1980 through 1989 on the demand for seafood for three representative households: the average Japanese household, northern Japanese household, and southern Japanese household. Estimation results highlight effects of seasonality on demand for various seafood products; how seasonality effects defer by region; and differences in demand elasticities for seafood products both during the marketing year and across regions. Results from the analysis of the nationally representative household are contrasted with results from regionally representative house-holds to determine implications of viewing Japan as a single, homogeneous market.