Economic activity and recession probabilities: information content and predictive power of the term spread in Italy

The aim of the present article is to examine the information content of the Italian term spread as for real economic growth rates and recession probabilities and to test its predictive power in forecasting regime probabilities. To this end the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the Logistic Smooth Transition model is used, while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities. Specific to this article is the use of the OECD business cycle chronology, which was never used before to this end for the Italian case. Overall evidence supports the informative content of the spread in Italy over the whole period (1984–2005) although results are more satisfactory as from 1992. In particular, recession forecasts are generally better than those obtained with other chronologies previously adopted for the Italian case (ISAE and ECRI).     

The experience of technological collaborations by MERCOSUR companies

This paper examines some of the experiences in information and knowledge sharing involving MERCOSUR firm. It finds that while technological collaborations by MERCOSUR firms are relatively few, located in low-tech sectors and taking place in an environment of little innovation, they are motivated by the need to ‘fuse’ their own knowledge with that of partner or to improve available information. Modes of governance vary accordingly, with equity or contractual forms being used for new developments and informal agreements for improvements. Govmments and business associations can be important facilitators of technological collaborations. The analysis of technological collaborations suggested that the better prepared a corporation entered an agreement the more successful it was likely to be. It also pointed out that where interactions were intense, well intended and transparent, included personnel exchanges, were properly assessed and involved receptive participants, learning progressed smoothly and partners were satisfied. Benefits of the collaborations included new patentable and non-patentable products new factories, as well as building trust between partners. Premature termination of some collaborations was the result of financia1 limitations unrelated to the success of the collaboration.     

Demographics and asset returns: does the dynamics of population ageing matter?

The empirical connection between the population age-structure and financial asset returns has been so far investigated with special focus on the US, whereby weak or disparate results are obtained. This paper aims to assess whether this connection is affected by the demographic dynamics. To this end the analysis is based on a stylized overlapping generation model and on the empirical investigation for Italy, which is experiencing one of the most pronounced ageing in the world and, specifically, steeper than the US one. Following the approach used for the US, stock returns and Government bond yields are regressed over demographic and/or control variables using annual data over 1958–2004. Results for Italy are more clear-cut and thus support the importance of the country-specific age-dynamics in explaining the impact of demographics on financial markets.     

PRODUCTIVITY AND EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS SOFTWARE: AN EXPLORATORY BIBLIOGRAPHICAL SURVEY OF THE OPTIONS

The software available to implement and carry out efficiency analysis is crucial for the diffusion of efficiency frontier techniques among applied researchers and policy makers. The implementation of up‐to‐date productivity and efficiency analysis is indeed important to advance our knowledge in many fields, ranging from the public and regulated sectors to the private ones. This contribution fills a gap in the existing literature and surveys the currently available options to estimate a variety of frontier methodologies using either general or dedicated programs. We outline directions for future research.     

Economic volatility and financial markets: The case of mortgage‐backed securities

The volatility of aggregate economic activity in the United States decreased markedly in the mid‐eighties. The decrease involved several components of GDP and has been linked to a more stable economic environment, identified by smaller shocks, more effective policy, and a diverse set of innovations in technology as well as financial markets. We study one such financial innovation, and document a negative relation between the rapid growth of mortgage‐backed securities and the volatility of GDP and some of its components from the mid‐1970s to the late 1990s. We also document that this relation changed sign, from negative to positive, in the early 2000s.     

Consumer reaction to product recalls: factors influencing product judgement and behavioural intentions

In order to evaluate the factors influencing consumers’ responses to product recalls, two surveys were conducted among Brazilian automobile owners and two regression models tested. Results indicated that (i) product judgement was significantly affected by corporate social responsibility (CSR), blame attributed to the company and whether or not consumers had a car made by the brand considered; and (ii) behavioural intentions were significantly affected by CSR, consumers’ involvement with the message, perceived danger, product judgement and whether or not consumers had a car made by the brand considered. Findings revealed, however, that CSR is a better predictor of the product judgement than of the behavioural intentions, in accordance with recent studies indicating that CSR affects consumer judgements and behaviour differently. Finally, these two models are discussed and compared with previous research.     

Anticonsumption beyond consumers: The role of small organic producers in environmentally oriented anticonsumption

Recent studies recognize that environmentally oriented anticonsumption gives power to individuals who are willing to express their environmental concerns. Yet, it goes beyond consumers’ decisions and should also include producers’ practices and discourses. In this study, we explore the food system context and the emergence of organic food as a more sustainable and healthy food production mode to describe the role of organic farmers in building social and material arrangements against conventional food production and consumption. Our empirical study involved an interpretative approach based on 29 interviews with Brazilian organic farmers and experts in organic production. The findings indicate that farmers explore two different discursive mechanisms to build arguments that support the hegemonic and conventional food production system. Farmers also perform two sets of supporting practices that allow the construction of an alternative approach to food production and consumption. We conclude that farmers’ discourses and practices build an alternative food system, enabling conventional food anticonsumption. This study contributes to the literature of anticonsumption by expanding the traditional consumer-centric perspective through the inclusion of the producer perspective.     

Behavioural responses to service encounter involving failure and recovery: the influence of contextual factors

This study investigates two features of customer satisfaction within the context of service failure and recovery: (i) the effect of perceived justice on customer satisfaction and (ii) the effect of customer satisfaction on repurchase intentions, negative word-of-mouth, and intention to complain. The study takes into account the influence of important contextual factors, including severity of failure, recovery responsiveness, attitude toward complaining, switching cost, and the relationship level. Based on a survey of 556 customers with complaints in Brazil, the results supported the influence of perceived justice on satisfaction and of satisfaction on behavioural responses. Specifically, findings revealed that perceived failure severity, attitude toward complaining, and switching costs were the more relevant contextual factors, as these were significantly associated with satisfaction, intention to complain, and negative word-of-mouth.     

Put-call parity and cross-markets efficiency in the index options markets: evidence from the Italian market

The success of index option markets has fostered empirical research on their efficiency. While most of the literature focuses on US markets, European markets have not received much attention. The aim of the present paper is to provide new evidence on the Italian index options by means of a high frequency data set covering the period September 1-December 31, 2002. The methodology is based on model-free tests of no-arbitrage relationships with special attention to the Put-Call Parity (PCP). Our analysis, which in line with the literature highlights the role of frictions, supports a substantial and increased efficiency of the Italian market.