A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts

The anticipation and forecast of technological changes are of vital importance, as technological advances become increasingly fast and complex. What is at the core is identification of the current technologies that will drive technological changes over the coming few years. In this respect, numerous approaches have been devised to assess future technological impacts based on patent citation information, but do not provide a fair reflection of dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of technological impacts as they are deterministic methods based on simple citation counts. We propose a stochastic patent citation analysis that can assess future technological impacts in a time period of interest by employing the future citation count as a proxy. At the heart of the proposed approach is a Pareto/NBD (Negative Binomial Distribution) model for taking into account the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of technological impacts. A patent citation matrix is first constructed for each time unit with citation patterns of the past. The future technological impacts are then derived by Pareto/NBD sub-model and gamma–gamma sub-model. A case study of the display technology patents is presented to illustrate the proposed approach. We believe our method can be employed in various research fields, from narrow patent valuation, to broad technological analysis and planning.     

Foreign institutional ownership and stock market liquidity: Evidence from Indonesia

From January 2002 to August 2007, foreign institutions held almost 70% of the free-float value of the Indonesian equity market, or 41% of the total market capitalization. Over the same period, liquidity on the Jakarta Stock Exchange improved substantially with the average bid–ask spread more than halved and the average depth more than doubled. In this study we examine the Granger causality between foreign institutional ownership and liquidity, while controlling for persistence in foreign ownership and liquidity measures. We find that foreign holdings have a negative impact on future liquidity: a 10% increase in foreign institutional ownership in the current month is associated with approximately 2% increase in the bid–ask spread, 3% decrease in depth, and 4% rise in price sensitivity in the next month, challenging the view that foreign institutions enhance liquidity in small emerging markets. Our findings are consistent with the negative liquidity impact of institutional investor ownership in developed markets.     

Why do foreign investors underperform domestic investors in trading activities? Evidence from Indonesia

Foreign investors generally underperform domestic investors in trading activities. This study shows that their inferior performance is attributable to non-initiated orders. Foreign investors actually perform better than domestic investors in initiated orders. In addition, their performance is also mixed when trades are classified depending on who the counterparties are. These mixed performances can be explained by neither the information disadvantage hypothesis proposed by [Dvo?ák, T., 2005. Do domestic investors have an information advantage? Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Finance 60, 817–839.] nor the poor timing of trade hypothesis suggested by [Choe, H., Kho, B.C., Stulz, R., 2005. Do domestic investors have an edge? The trading experience of foreign investors in Korea. Review of Financial Studies 18, 795–829.]. We propose and confirm that their inferior performance is explained by their aggressive trading behavior. Three metrics we utilize to measure the aggressiveness of foreign investors’ trading provide overwhelmingly strong evidence that foreign investors are more aggressive than their domestic counterparts.     

Review of consumer activism in Korea, 1910–1995: A political-economic approach

Consumer activism in Korea has a long history, starting from an anticolonial social movement and developing into one which targets consumers' interests at both individual and societal levels. As a social movement, consumer activism needs to be understood within a political and economic environment, particularly in Korea which has gone through dynamic changes both politically and economically. While understanding of the political environment sheds further light on governmental consumer policies as well as manifested consumer activism, eminent consumer problems and issues were acknowledged according to the stage of economic development. This political-economic approach deepens our understanding of the Korean consumer movement and provides a framework for analyzing consumer activism in other Eastern Asian countries which are experiencing similar political or economic developments.

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Überblick über Verbraucheraktivismus in Korea von 1910 bis 1995: ein politischökonomischer Ansatz

Zusammenfassung Verbraucheraktivismus hat in Korea eine lange Geschichte, die als soziale antikolonialistische Bewegung begann und sich zu einer Bewegung entwickelt, die die Interessen der Verbraucher sowohl auf individueller Ebene wie auch auf gesellschaftlicher Ebene im Visier hat. Als soziale Bewegung muß Verbraucheraktivismus in einem politischen und ökonomischen Umfeld gesehen werden, insbesondere in einem Land wie Korea, das große politische und ökonomische Umwälzungen durchlaufen hat. Während ein Verständnis der politischen Umstände Erkenntnisse über staatliche Verbraucherpolitik, aber auch über sonstige Verbraucheraktivitäten, ermöglicht, ist es der Stand der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, der darüber bestimmt, welche Verbraucherprobleme und -themen in den Vordergrund rücken. Dieser kombinierte politisch-ökonomische Ansatz ermöglicht ein vertieftes Verständnis der koreanischen Verbraucherbewegung und bietet auch einen Bezugsrahmen für die Analyse der Verbraucheraktivitäten in anderen ostasiatischen Ländern, die eine ähnliche politische und ökonomische Entwicklung wie Korea erleben.

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Kee-Choon Rhee is a Professor in the Department of Consumer & Child Studies, the Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea 151–741. Jinkook Lee is an Assistant Professor of Retail & Consumer Science, University of Tennessee, 1215 West Cumberland Avenue, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996-1900, U.S.A.The uthors thank Robert N. Mayer, Robert O. Herrmann, and Loren V. Geistfeld for their insightful comments.     

The equilibrium price of futures contracts: A result drawn from capital asset pricing model

A recent study shows that separation theorems in the stock and forward market literatures may not hold in an integrated financial market; therefore, the securities market may influence futures trading. This article investigates the securities market influence on the futures price. The result shows that although the futures price incorporates the investor's expectation about the future spot price, it generally is not a best estimate of the spot price. In addition, it is shown that the speculative activity can destabilize the cash market for some commodities, if initially, the underlying cash price is highly volatile.     

经济欠发达地区城市化理论与实践探索——以江西吉安市为例

本文以江西省吉安市为例 ,运用城市细分理论和城市结构理论 ,对经济欠发达地区城市化过程中的城市定位、发展目标选择、空间结构模式以及城市主要衡量指标进行了系统的分析 ,从理论和实践的角度为经济欠发达地区实现城市化提出了一系列具体政策和建议。     

Revenue-sharing contracts across an extended supply chain

Revenue-sharing contracts have been heavily researched and promoted in the academic literature. However, despite some well-documented examples (e.g., the way Blockbuster and film studios were able to increase availability of the latest video releases in rental shops through a revenue-sharing contract), they seem to be much less prevalent in practice. A possible reason for this gap between theory and practice is that most academic research has focused on two-party contracts involving only one buyer and one supplier, while in reality, most supply chains consist of multiple stages. When there are several stages in the chain—as is the case for many extended, global supply chains—the traditional revenue-sharing contract is no longer optimal for the two contracting parties, as every other participant in the chain is able to leverage the revenue-sharing contract to its own advantage. Put another way, a revenue-sharing contract between only two parties is not incentive-compatible across all participants. Accordingly, we suggest that a revenue-sharing contract should involve all the supply chain partners, and propose a spanning revenue-sharing contract that accomplishes coordination and incentive-compatibility across the same.     

STOCK MARKET REACTION TO ETHICAL INITIATIVES OF DEFENSE CONTRACTORS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This paper offers an Investor Decision Framework (IDF) to describe and measure investor behavior toward social responsibility information. This framework seeks to explain how investors perceive the effects of social responsibility information on firm value. The formation in 1986 by 32 major defense contractors of the Defense Industries Initiative (DII) provides an ideal example to assess stock market reaction to an ethical initiative. The performance of the DII firms was compared with that of a control group of non-DII defense firms, which did not sign the agreement, in order to measure and determine the extent to which the market placed substance on the DII as a public commitment to ethics. We initially posited that the DII firms stock price would move in a significantly positive direction. However, when our analysis revealed a significant negative impact not only on DII, but also on non-DII defense stock prices, we were forced to reject thisa priorihypothesis. The market interpreted this ethical initiative as (i) a precursor of future sanctions towards firms engaged in defense contracting or (ii) as a penalty for social irresponsibility imposed by socially conscious investors. Either way, it would have a negative impact upon future cash flows.