Fritz Redlich, 1892-1978: The Man and the Scholar

A bstract . Fritz Redlich (1892-1978) played a leading role in the development of the analytic approach in history and in establishing the new institutional history that combines entrepreneurial and business history and sociology. A member, in economics , of the German historical school , he spent 16 years in the chemical industry before the triumph of Nazism forced him to emigrate from Germany in 1936. After teaching at various colleges until 1942, he spent the rest of his life doing research in the libraries of Harvard University , producing several notable works in economic history , including a classical study of American banking , and pioneering in entrepreneurial history.     

Government financing decisions and asset returns

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between government financing decisions and asset returns. In particular, the focus is on whether a substitution of debt financing for tax financing of a given level of expenditures is associated with an increase in interest rates. The paper brings a different perspective to empirical investigations of government fiscal policies by examining the response of asset prices in an efficient capital market to such policies rather than focusing on aggregate consumption behavior. The results are consistent with the idea that asset prices are unrelated to how the government finances its expenditures. The results, however, also indicate that the capital market is not indifferent with respect to the level of government expenditures as higher interest rates are associated with increases in government purchases.     

Gains in efficiency from joint estimation of systems of autoregressive-moving average processes

The paper examines gains in efficiency from joint estimation of systems of ARMA processes where cross-correlation is due to contemporaneous correlation among disturbances. The asymptotic variance of joint estimates is derived and it involves only variances and covariances among purely AR processes corresponding to the AR and MA parts of the constituent processes. Small sample gains are evaluated by Monte Carlo methods. Application of joint estimation to two short-term interest rates is shown to result in more accurate post-sample predictions relative to both univariate models and the FMP econometric model.     

The effect of the Senior Citizens' Freedom to Work Act of 2000 on employer-provided pension and medical plans

On April 7, 2000 President Clinton signed the Senior Citizens' Freedom to Work Act. The act reduces the Social Security retirement benefit penalties previously imposed on 65- through 69-year-old workers who earned more than nominal incomes after enrolling in the program. This article analyzes the impact that the act will have on retirement decisions of the affected cohorts of older workers and closes with an analysis of how the act may affect employer-provided pension, medical and paid leave plans.